Tracking the el nino

[Billy_Bob]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..

Depends on whether or not the boys over at NASA have been tweaking the data. Going to be taking a very close look at Antarctic and Arctic ice data this week as it appears we may be having sever sensor drift on one of the satellites used for this calculation. The rapid pronounced deviation, in the southern hemisphere, without a significant global event, leads me to suspect a failure and the need to look at it very closely. It appears very suspicious.

If you grid map Cryosphere's images for the week prior to and after July 5 when the rapid shift occurred there is no rapid melt or ice break up. A 2.3 million square Kl break up of ice would be very noticeable. So either the satellite's sensors have gone on vacation or we have had a manipulation of the data. The physical imagery of the area in question does not support this reported loss of ice.

You will note that it is an abrupt change in 5-7 days. This is commonly seen in sensor failures or shifts in sensor calibrations. You will note that there are no other shifts of this magnitude or duration in the other plotted years data sets.

 

[Crick]

A satellite whose raw data requires adjustment? Say it isn't so!

 

[flacaltenn]

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..

Depends on whether or not the boys over at NASA have been tweaking the data. Going to be taking a very close look at Antarctic and Arctic ice data this week as it appears we may be having sever sensor drift on one of the satellites used for this calculation. The rapid pronounced deviation, in the southern hemisphere, without a significant global event, leads me to suspect a failure and the need to look at it very closely. It appears very suspicious.

If you grid map Cryosphere's images for the week prior to and after July 5 when the rapid shift occurred there is no rapid melt or ice break up. A 2.3 million square Kl break up of ice would be very noticeable. So either the satellite's sensors have gone on vacation or we have had a manipulation of the data. The physical imagery of the area in question does not support this reported loss of ice.

View attachment 46925

You will note that it is an abrupt change in 5-7 days. This is commonly seen in sensor failures or shifts in sensor calibrations. You will note that there are no other shifts of this magnitude or duration in the other plotted years data sets.

Before you declare a Code Red fraud alert ---- I would check the weather.. Ya gotta remember the reason I don't do Ice is partly these silly metrics that everyone panics about. You are not looking at a number describing the actual polar cap of sea ice... That number includes grids of sea surface that have as LITTLE as 15% icing.
Literally ICE CUBES bobbing in open ocean. So you bring on a storm system that piles it back to shore and VOILA --- You get a remarkable dip in the number..

 

[mamooth]

A 2.3 million square Kl break up of ice would be very noticeable.

Once more, Billy seems incapable of basic graph reading. On his graph, the decrease is more like 0.3 million, over the span of a week. As flac pointed out, that's easily possible for a wind compaction event. As this chart shows, such events are common.

One thing to note is that NSIDC and CT use different methods to report ice. NSIDC uses extent, CT uses area. "Extent" means counting the area of the holes in the swiss cheese in the final tally, while "area" leaves the holes out. Extent is always more than area, so the NSIDC numbers are always bigger than the CT numbers.

The Antarctic sea ice is "retreating" a bit this year. That is, the peak will not be breaking any new records. No conclusions can be drawn from a single year, so it's not possible to say that a corner has been turned. At some point, however, the anti-ice effect of warmer temperatures will override the pro-ice effects of fresher water, more snow and more wind spreading, and the Antarctic sea ice will start trending down.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Text of CPC weekly update of 8/10/15 that has nino 3.4 at +1.9C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

 

[Billy_Bob]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..

No Change... As I suspected.

 

[Billy_Bob]

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..

Depends on whether or not the boys over at NASA have been tweaking the data. Going to be taking a very close look at Antarctic and Arctic ice data this week as it appears we may be having sever sensor drift on one of the satellites used for this calculation. The rapid pronounced deviation, in the southern hemisphere, without a significant global event, leads me to suspect a failure and the need to look at it very closely. It appears very suspicious.

If you grid map Cryosphere's images for the week prior to and after July 5 when the rapid shift occurred there is no rapid melt or ice break up. A 2.3 million square Kl break up of ice would be very noticeable. So either the satellite's sensors have gone on vacation or we have had a manipulation of the data. The physical imagery of the area in question does not support this reported loss of ice.

View attachment 46925

You will note that it is an abrupt change in 5-7 days. This is commonly seen in sensor failures or shifts in sensor calibrations. You will note that there are no other shifts of this magnitude or duration in the other plotted years data sets.

Before you declare a Code Red fraud alert ---- I would check the weather.. Ya gotta remember the reason I don't do Ice is partly these silly metrics that everyone panics about. You are not looking at a number describing the actual polar cap of sea ice... That number includes grids of sea surface that have as LITTLE as 15% icing.
Literally ICE CUBES bobbing in open ocean. So you bring on a storm system that piles it back to shore and VOILA --- You get a remarkable dip in the number..

Funny...

You have just explained why this is an arbitrary number and easily shifted one way or the other...

 

[flacaltenn]

What was the source of your material Billy?

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..

No Change... As I suspected.

Man -- that's some ballsy forecasting. You got a chart that rising faster than a new tranny show on TV and you want to call this week or month "the top"..

Can I get you to take a look at Netflix stock and call THAT peak for me?

 

[Billy_Bob]

MY WORK YOU MORON!!

RSS data, US CRN data, CHCN Data, And basic empirical evidence review. Some of us actually do atmospheric science, unlike others who play one on the internet. Did you rest well at LaQuinta?

1) My asking you for a source should not make you angry.
2) If by your LaQuinta comment, you mean to reveal personal information about me, you have violated one of the more serious rules here.

With both regions three and four taking a dip of -0.20 Deg C. There should be little or no change... Maybe a slight fall in overall temp.

I sure wouldn't be betting more than what's in my wallet on that..

No Change... As I suspected.

Man -- that's some ballsy forecasting. You got a chart that rising faster than a new tranny show on TV and you want to call this week or month "the top"..

Can I get you to take a look at Netflix stock and call THAT peak for me?

Pretty sure this is not the top. Only a lull.. Were going to see one or two more jumps but +1.8 is still not out of reach. We have had some westerlies push more heat out there but it is still very shallow heat and wont last long. The region 4 cold pool is going to put the kibosh to the majority of it.

The blob is all but gone and cooling is rapidly hiting the northern US shore lines.

 

[ScienceRocks]

1997 3.4 was 1.8c this week
2015 3.4 is 1.9c

The highest weekly 3.4 temperature in history was 2.8c in Nov 1997.

 

[ScienceRocks]

NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was updated August 4th.

"the updated (June-July) MEI has dropped slighty (by 0.09 standard deviations in one month) to +1.97, it is now reaching the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only by 1997 at this time of year. The MEI has hovered around +2 standard deviations for two months running, highest overall since early 1998."

See more at: Earth System Research Laboratory PSD none

 

[Billy_Bob]

1997 3.4 was 1.8c this week
2015 3.4 is 1.9c

The highest weekly 3.4 temperature in history was 2.8c in Nov 1997.

where are you getting your extremely exaggerated numbers?

 

[Billy_Bob]

NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was updated August 4th.

"the updated (June-July) MEI has dropped slighty (by 0.09 standard deviations in one month) to +1.97, it is now reaching the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only by 1997 at this time of year. The MEI has hovered around +2 standard deviations for two months running, highest overall since early 1998."

See more at: Earth System Research Laboratory PSD none

I should have guessed.. A model, which doesn't predict anything correctly.

 

[jc456]

NOAA's Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was updated August 4th.

"the updated (June-July) MEI has dropped slighty (by 0.09 standard deviations in one month) to +1.97, it is now reaching the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only by 1997 at this time of year. The MEI has hovered around +2 standard deviations for two months running, highest overall since early 1998."

See more at: Earth System Research Laboratory PSD none

I should have guessed.. A model, which doesn't predict anything correctly.

I've been telling him that day after day when I do post.

 

[Crick]

Will El Ni o 2015 rival the strongest year on record - CNN.com

If you're actually being paid anything to do el Nino forecasts, Billy Boy, they're paying you infinitely too much.

 

[Crick]

A "Godzilla" of an el Nino

Forecasters warn that Godzilla El Nino could hit U.S. - CBS News

Billy Boy, have you been attempting to impress your bosses with your El Nino predicting skills? How's that coming along? Are they impressed yet?

 

[jc456]

A "Godzilla" of an el Nino

Forecasters warn that Godzilla El Nino could hit U.S. - CBS News

Billy Boy, have you been attempting to impress your bosses with your El Nino predicting skills? How's that coming along? Are they impressed yet?

Still waiting for words other than could, should, predict than it will matter.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Will El Ni o 2015 rival the strongest year on record - CNN.com

If you're actually being paid anything to do el Nino forecasts, Billy Boy, they're paying you infinitely too much.

The horse shit is strong in this one.....

Its funny to watch you fools flail about..

 

[Crick]

So the PhDs at NOAA are the fools, and the ex-cop, might-be-a-student is the master. Got it.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Nino Region 4 is declining rapidly.. Cold pools are decimating the warmth as it rises to surface.

Region Three has peaked and were not expecting further rise the next few weeks as region 1-2 has dropped significantly this week and further heat input is declining. [below]

Might get a slight up tick this week in 3-4 but it is now waning with easterlies now reinforced and westerly's dying.... NO help from the winds...