JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
- 16,767
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I have been wondering how the early mailing has been going, but found this instead.
www.foxbusiness.com
Voter-registration patterns give Trump an edge invisible to polls: JPMorgan
The 2020 presidential race may be closer than the polls suggest, according to an analysis of voter registration trends by JPMorgan Chase.
www.foxbusiness.com
This year’s campaign may be won or lost in some of the same battlegrounds as that race, which has made them focal points for politicians, pollsters and observers alike.
In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.
JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.
Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.
JPMorgan also believes a surge in the number of registered Republicans will tighten the race in New Mexico, but that the state will still go with Biden. On the flipside, a growing number of registered Democrats in Arizona will make the state close, but Trump should prevail.
While voter registration is encouraging for Trump and the GOP, it is “only one variable in determining the election outcome,” the JPMorgan team wrote, noting that the results should not be used to predict a state’s outcome.
