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WAR OR PEACE: Towards a Ukrainian Peace or a Direct NATO-Russian War
Introduction The following is an overview of the recent events and present state of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War. We observe movement towards the end of the conflict in its present configuration a…
gordonhahn.com
Introduction
The following is an overview of the recent events and present state of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War. We observe movement towards the end of the conflict in its present configuration and in two new directions simultaneously — a race to the final resolution of the NATO-Russia question. One direction consists of movement towards peace negotiations. The other is toward escalation into a open, direct NATO-Russia war likely to expand beyond the borders of Ukraine and far western regions of Russia. The race to resolution is on and it remains anyone's guess whether peace or greater war will win the day.
Russia Proposes Diplomacy...Again
On June 14 Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a roadmap for ending the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War during a speech at Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He called the "Ukrainian crisis" "a tragedy for us all" and the result not of a Russo-Ukrainian conflict per se but "of the aggressive, cavalier, and absolutely adventurous policy that the West has pursued and is pursuing." He proposed what he called "a real peace proposal" for establishing a permanent end to the Ukrainian conflict and war rather than a ceasefire. Putin based his proposal on principles he has reiterated numerous times, most of which were agreed upon by Kiev and Moscow in Istanbul in March-April 2022; a process scuttled by Washington, London, and Brussels. In particular, he has now offered "simple" conditions for the "beginning of discussions."
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Towards a Eurasian Security Pact: Getting Ready for Direct War with NATO
With war with NATO now firmly in the cards, a distinct possibility, the Kremlin is intensely set on military and military-political preparations. The rejection of Putin's next peace proposal was likely the last straw that will set in motion the next phase in Russia's diplomatic offensive in tandem with China aimed it rallying the Rest against the West. This new phase will focus on developing military partnerships and alliances. This was signalled most notably in the same June 14th speech in which Putin made his peace offering, evidencing the connection between it, the West-Ukraine rejection, and Russia's first diplomatic move in this security direction.
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Conclusion
Again, the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War - the current war with military combat confined largely to Ukrainian and far western Russian territory — will end this year or very early next year. However, a new broader war can take its place, if the peace fails or is never agreed upon. Such a broader war could be confined to the present war's territorial parameters in Ukraine, while expanding to a worldwide proxy war led by Russia and its direct or indirect allies against Western foreign bases and/or spreading to western Ukraine as a result of a NATO military intervention across the Dniepr's Right Bank. And NATO fighter jets, such as F-16s, based outside Ukraine, could make Romanian or Polish air bases or other facilities targets for Russian missiles and drones. A NATO or Russian no fly zone of one kind or another could lead to NATO-Russian air combat. A Russian shoot-down of the U.S. intelligence drone Global Hawk could be the spark for such tensions in the air.
Commentary:
A very well put together analysis of the Russo-Ukraine war. and future peace in Europe.
To the moderators on this forum. I tried my best to make it brief yet cogent to the members who will read this and at the same time recccomend they read the the comlete analysis by Gordan Hahn.
While you read this, the war in the Ukraine escalates with China providing Russia with the first of Y20A Transport Planes a few hours ago.* (oddly appears to be a rip off of the C-17)
If there is to be any solution to war in Ukraine, and the Israel disturbance with Hamas it will have to wait until November. Trump has said he will end the war before he takes office.
The first job on the 47th president's bang list will be the nuetralization of the State Department and career wonks,and Democrat plants like Blinken, Sullivan and Nuland.
Meanwhile Russia has lost a huge number of troops in KIA and WIA, and the citizens of Russia may soon turn against VladimirPutin and his regime.
