We're In A Recession......Two Quarters Of Negative Growth Is Official

[mudwhistle]

That clown will never win.

All anyone has to do is take into consideration the items contained in that meme. The only idiots who'd vote for him are the same idiots who put him in office in California...

Yep....about two hundred black election officials.

 

[mudwhistle]

Another reason why the reprehensible right shouldn’t be celebrating a recession is it could bring inflation under control – the same inflation that’s been a drag on President Biden’s poll numbers; the same inflation conservatives lie about by blaming President Biden.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I just wanna' make sure we're on track here: Is it your position that losing one's job is the only possible negative aspect of a recession?

Is yours an honest question or a sarcastic one?

It is not a position, it is a question, an honest question.

Other than losing a job, what is the worst part of a recession?

 

[22lcidw]

It is not a position, it is a question, an honest question.

Other than losing a job, what is the worst part of a recession?

Many things. 10% inflation on a yearly basis with increases in income only a few per cent is fun.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Many things. 10% inflation on a yearly basis with increases in income only a few per cent is fun.

That is not part of the recession, in fact most recessions do not have inflation at all. One could argue that inflation helped bring about the recession, but it is not part of the recession

 

[struth]

They're just tickled pink. Their top priority is perceived political advantage, not the country.

That's what happens when a person views the world through a hardcore partisan political lens.

We'll see. A soft landing and takeoff is possible. Some of us here are hoping for that.

All of us are hoping for that…the midterms are very important to right the wrong if the 2020 elections that caused this mess

hopefully the country learned it’s lesson

 

[22lcidw]

That is not part of the recession, in fact most recessions do not have inflation at all. One could argue that inflation helped bring about the recession, but it is not part of the recession

There are factors. In theory politicians can have an inflationary or deflationary depression. It depends on if they have a tight money policy or a printing money policy. In the great depression we had a deflationary one. One other thing. When we left a gold and silver backed currency in 1913 to a fiat derived one, the foreign dominated financiers promised no recessions and depressions. You do know that the Federal Reserve is a privately owned institution. Global owners of our currency. They order what is printed to our treasury department. They pay a small charge for what is printed.

 

[mudwhistle]

Many things. 10% inflation on a yearly basis with increases in income only a few per cent is fun.

The inflation we're experiencing isn't 10%,
More like 100%-200%.

They're able to make it seem less because they water down the numbers using an imaginative book keeping technique.
They just add all items in the economy and figure out the average. Food prices doubled....but because the price of gas went down....inflation wasn't listed as being as bad as in June. So basically Biden is monkeying with inflation by selling our strategic oil reserve to the Chinese. Course that's treason...but he gets away with a lowered inflation figure.

 

[Canon Shooter]

It is not a position, it is a question, an honest question.

Other than losing a job, what is the worst part of a recession?

Well, it's not a question of you losing your job. It's a question of many people losing their jobs. The GDP will shrink and the stock market will suffer, affecting those who have investments.

It's rather myopic to think the only bad thing about a recession is that you could lose your job. If a person is the sole earner in a household, that's a pretty big deal...

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Well, it's not a question of you losing your job. It's a question of many people losing their jobs. The GDP will shrink and the stock market will suffer, affecting those who have investments.

It's rather myopic to think the only bad thing about a recession is that you could lose your job. If a person is the sole earner in a household, that's a pretty big deal...

Well, yes it is bad anytime someone loses a a job.

The markets have been suffering for a while now, oddly enough they went up with the news that we are officially in a recession.

But in the end, the worst part of a recession is job losses and there is a good reason to believe we will see less of that with this one than in the past

 

[Canon Shooter]

Well, yes it is bad anytime someone loses a a job.

The markets have been suffering for a while now, oddly enough they went up with the news that we are officially in a recession.

But in the end, the worst part of a recession is job losses and there is a good reason to believe we will see less of that with this one than in the past

What reasons are those?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

What reasons are those?

There is a labor shortage right now, that is not normally the case heading into a recession. Most businesses are short employees right now, which means they do not have the normal extra to shed.

In the past 3 recessions (not including the mini COVID one) job losses started months before the recession was official or in the 90s recession the same month as. But we are still adding more than a half a million jobs a month. While it is possible we could still see some job losses the chances of them being on the level of the past 3 recession are slim since we have not even had a bad month of hiring yet.

 

[Canon Shooter]

There is a labor shortage right now, that is not normally the case heading into a recession. Most businesses are short employees right now, which means they do not have the normal extra to shed.

In the past 3 recessions (not including the mini COVID one) job losses started months before the recession was official or in the 90s recession the same month as. But we are still adding more than a half a million jobs a month. While it is possible we could still see some job losses the chances of them being on the level of the past 3 recession are slim since we have not even had a bad month of hiring yet.

The job market is completely fucked. The labor shortage exists not because employers are letting people go, which is what you'd normally see in a recession but, rather, because people got lazy during the pandemic and now refuse to work.

During the height of Covid, my employees were allowed to work from home. We had one guy who, when it was time to come back to the office, opted not to. He said he didn't feel comfortable being around so many people. Well, that's fine, but life goes on. We let him work from home for another two weeks. He was informed that. if he didn't return after those two weeks, we would consider that his resignation.

Well, needless to say, he didn't come back, so we listed his job on a number of different platforms and had four viable candidates within two days, and his replacement was hired from among those four in three days. Two and a half weeks later the guy comes back to the office looking to get his job back. He's a young-ishable-bodied guy who got lazy during the pandemic. Last I heard he's still not working and sponging off his family.

I used to see two, maybe three people a week standing at an intersection or the exit from a shopping center while holding their "Anything Helps. God Bless" signs. Now I see seven or eight a day, every fucking day. I make a damn fine living, but I'd go damn near broke if I tossed a five to everyone begging for one...

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The job market is completely fucked. The labor shortage exists not because employers are letting people go, which is what you'd normally see in a recession but, rather, because people got lazy during the pandemic and now refuse to work.

Ok. either way they are not working now so nothing will change for them.

During the height of Covid, my employees were allowed to work from home. We had one guy who, when it was time to come back to the office, opted not to. He said he didn't feel comfortable being around so many people. Well, that's fine, but life goes on. We let him work from home for another two weeks. He was informed that. if he didn't return after those two weeks, we would consider that his resignation.

That is the choice each employer and employee has to make. My brother was in the same situation with his firm (he is an architect). When they said it was time to come back to the office he said he was going to quit if they made him. They said 'is there anything we can send you from your office that will help you work from home?" They get far more work out of him from home than they did with him driving in as he now spends the time he would have been commuting doing actual work.

Personally I feel the breaking away from the "you need to be in this exact space to do your job" mentality is the best thing to come out of COVID

 

[Canon Shooter]

Ok. either way they are not working now so nothing will change for them.

Right, but the reason they're not working is important. Many people didn;t lose their job, they gave up their job.

The fact of the matter is that there's no long line of people looking for all of the available jobs, and that's a horrible place for us to be...

That is the choice each employer and employee has to make. My brother was in the same situation with his firm (he is an architect). When they said it was time to come back to the office he said he was going to quit if they made him. They said 'is there anything we can send you from your office that will help you work from home?" They get far more work out of him from home than they did with him driving in as he now spends the time he would have been commuting doing actual work.

One of my two businesses had to make some serious adjustments to allow people to work from home, simply because working at home, given the very specialized nature of the business, just isn't really possible. Much of what is normally done "in house" had to wait. That affected our revenue and cash flow. We were always in good shape, but there's no denying there was a very definite impact because of it...

Personally I feel the breaking away from the "you need to be in this exact space to do your job" mentality is the best thing to come out of COVID

In some cases you're absolutely correct.

When the pandemic started, my son in law was working for Amazon. They eventually closed their offices in Seattle and he was working strictly from home. He now works for Netflix, and works with their Los Angeles office. He works from home in Seattle, but he makes a four day trip to L.A. once a month.

Also, consider this: In February of 2021, there were almost 16,000,000 people employed in the retail sales industry in the United States. That's simply not a job a person can do at home. Many of those people never went back to work, simply because they didn't want to...

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Right, but the reason they're not working is important. Many people didn;t lose their job, they gave up their job.

The fact of the matter is that there's no long line of people looking for all of the available jobs, and that's a horrible place for us to be...

Not heading into a recession it is not a horrible place to be. Those that are working now have less fear of losing their jobs. This is a good thing.

One of my two businesses had to make some serious adjustments to allow people to work from home, simply because working at home, given the very specialized nature of the business, just isn't really possible. Much of what is normally done "in house" had to wait. That affected our revenue and cash flow. We were always in good shape, but there's no denying there was a very definite impact because of it...

Clearly not all business can do it. But those that can could save a ton on office space cost. A great many jobs can be done from virtually anywhere.

 

[Canon Shooter]

Not heading into a recession it is not a horrible place to be.

Agreed. But heading into a recession with a work force which has decided it doesn't want to work is...

Those that are working now have less fear of losing their jobs. This is a good thing.

I suppose, but employers are still in a position where they need to hire people, but those people don't want to work. Production suffers. There's less product available, which means less money being spent on that product to generate revenue for the company...

Clearly not all business can do it. But those that can could save a ton on office space cost. A great many jobs can be done from virtually anywhere.

Office jobs, sure. It takes a certain discipline, but it can certainly be done. There are other benefits, though, to having your people show up at the office every day...