sakinago
Gold Member
- Sep 13, 2012
- 5,320
- 1,632
Mr. Sanders is right about a lot, mostly when it comes to the problems. Most of his soloutions I do not agree with...but at least he actually has solutions compared to other current candidates. And I can't believe sanders supporters aren't freaking out as much as they should be about the super delegates, we will see if they demand change or not after this. I don't see sanders stealing the super delegates just because for the dems, it's her defacto birthright this go round.One of the things you're omitting from the formula is that, like me, there are millions upon millions of voters in enough states to deliver the Presidency to Secretary ClintonLibertarians and 3rd parties have won (as far as I know) zero states during the same period.
Well, there's a first time for everything, isn't there. LOL
This election cycle, with its two front runners having such high negatives, seems like as good a time as there's going to be for a third party candidate like Mr. Johnson to have a chance.
Speculating on just how he might actually attain the Presidency, I propose the following "strange bedfellows" scenario:
You'll note that the keys to that strategy are:
- Mr. Johnson makes a major push to get his name known. That isn't all that hard to do if one thinks "outside the box." Indeed, taking a page from Kennedy's playbook, if Mr. Johnson can get a pop singer to release a catch tune that promotes him, he'd become quite well known almost overnight. You may recall that Sinatra did exactly that for JFK.
- Mainstream Republicans, in their fit of dissatisfaction with Trump look at Mr. Johnson's stance on the issues and notice that although they aren't in lockstep with Republican ideas, they aren't very far from them, and some of them are identical to them.
- Upon noticing the great degree of similarity, along with looking at Mr. Johnson's record as NM Governor, GOP mainstreamers decide Mr. Johnson is a far better compromise than is Trump, particularly since Libertarians would caucus with Republicans in Congress anyway.
- Mainstream GOP leaders mount a campaign backing Mr. Johnson as the alternative to Trump.
- Johnson doesn't win enough of the electoral college votes to win the Presidency outright, but he draws enough votes from Trump and the Democratic nominee that he throws the decision of who shall be President into the House of Representatives.
- Given that the Republican held House must choose among the top three electoral vote getters, their choices will be Trump, Mr. Johnson and whomever the Democratic candidate is.
- Of those three choices, the House lead by the establishment/mainstream will almost certainly choose Mr. Johnson. The man's a two-term Governor. It's not as though his views are strange, unknown or not conservative. In some areas they may not be as conservative as some REPs would like, but in all areas they are more conservative than are Trump's ideas and approaches.
- Boom. Gary Johnson becomes President.
Is it an unusual approach for Mr. Johnson? Sure it is. Does it give the GOP and other mainstream politicians and voters a far more tolerable/"less negative" alternative than Trump or Mrs. Clinton? Absolutely.
- Hillary Clinton becoming the Democratic nominee. Not a far fetched possibility, and a possibility that the GOP can help along by encouraging support for her over Mr. Sanders.
- Johnson drawing enough electoral votes from Mrs. Clinton (or Mr. Sanders if he runs, although appealing to core DEMs and Mr. Sanders' own base of young idealists is unlikely) to throw the decision into the House.
- Republican leaders who despise Trump get over the need to have a Republican in name in the White House and focus on the substance of what they want and don't want, thereby accepting a good compromise when they see it and acting to make it happen. This is probably the biggest hurdle to overcome among the three key pillars of the strategy I proposed.
P.S.
No, I don't really want Johnson to become POTUS, but if the alternative is Trump, sure, I'll take Johnson instead. In a New York minute. LOL Of the remaining possibilities, Sanders is the one I prefer. He just makes more sense overall to me, even though he's far from perfect.
One of the things you're omitting from the formula is that, like me, there are millions upon millions of voters in enough states to deliver the Presidency to Secretary Clinton who are not voting against Trump or Johnson or anyone else. Call us the establishment or whatever...we're firmly in her camp and she isn't going anywhere...
The only thing that would allow your scenario to (in part) come true is whether Mr. Trump or Ms. Clinton end up intertwined in legal matters that shape the race.
Red:
First of all, what I identified isn't a formula. I identified a strategy and a high level plan for effecting it. A formula is something entirely different from either of those things. That said, I know what you are referring to, and that's clearly more important in this context than whether it's called a strategy, formula or banana even.
I didn't omit anything of the sort that you've suggested. What you've identified is obvious and has nothing to do with the strategy or the rough plan I outlined for implementing it. You've stated nothing short of what is the wager each nominating party must make regarding whether a majority of the nation's electoral votes can be collected by their respective nominees. As things appear right now:
The Republican's who don't want Trump to do so have only one wager, and that is finding someone who can prevent Mrs. Clinton and Trump from collecting enough electoral votes to force the decision into the House of Representative where the establishment GOP holds sway. So, of course, if the Democrats' wager pans out and Mrs. Clinton wins the required 270 electoral votes, it won't matter whether the strategy and plan to drive the decision into the House works, for clearly it will not have. Nonetheless, it, something very similar to it, or a meeting of the minds between Trump and the GOP mainstream, are the only real options the GOP mainstream have at the moment.
- The Democrats' wager will be that Mrs. Clinton can do so.
- The Republican's wager ostensibly will be that Trump can do so.
- The Libertarians wager will be that Mr. Johnson can do so.
- The Green Party's wager will be that whomever they nominate can do so.
Lastly, you'll notice the thread question is, "what choice have folks" who are unwilling to support/vote for Trump or Clinton. The strategy and plan I outlined is one of the choices they have. What I've laid out is an actionable choice and course of action such individuals currently have available to them. Have you seen anyone else in the discussion here identify anything that directly answers the title question and that resembles a clear strategy and plan? I haven't.
I realize you want Mrs. Clinton to win the Presidential election. That's fine, and I have no problem with it. As I noted earlier, I don't want Trump or Mr. Johnson to win, but that I don't want them to win doesn't prevent me from being able to identify what strategic options the GOP currently have open to them and what it'd take for them to bring them to fruition.
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Part of knowing the enemy is knowing what options they have and then crafting one's own plan for countering them. So for you, myself and others who don't want Trump to win, and even though we may not be campaign strategists, the call of this thread is to try to think like one and present actionable strategies. The next step, if one wants to carry on the discussion is to identify actionable counters to one's strategy. Politics, war and chess have a lot in common.
P.S.
It is the discussion of stratagems and their counters that I find eminently more interesting than the puerile "I'm right; you're wrong and stupid" banter that typically passes for discussion/debate on USMB. There isn't a political strategy subforum on USMB, so here and the SDF subforum is where I dwell in the hope of finding a few well informed and deep thinking folks who will engage in strategic level civil discourse.
Blue:
Well, for now, that's so. The "two ton gorilla in the room" is, of course what the FBI determines it must do regarding her emails and home email server. Where Mrs. Clinton will go is to her lawyers' offices and a courtroom to plan and argue her defense.
I happen to think that if they indict her, her chances of winning the Presidency will be all but over. I honestly doubt the Democratic Party willfully would nominate a person who has an active and unresolved federal indictment against them. One can ask the American people to overlook quite a lot, and they often will, Donald Trump's success being a fine illustration of that, but open federal charges are not something enough voters will overlook to thereby allow a nominee to get the required 270 electoral votes.
Lastly, given that Mr. Sanders doesn't currently have a mathematical path to winning the Democratic Presidential nomination, it wouldn't surprise me to later find out that Mr. Sanders is remaining in the Democratic primary races largely (albeit quietly) hoping for and just in case the FBI do indict Mrs. Clinton.
Mr Sanders is fighting Hillary to almost a dead even TIE in ELECTED delegates. The contest is lopsided as it is because Sgt Schultz and the Party bosses put in a 15% barrier of UNELECTED delegates. With a lot of coin flips and card draws and other stunts that add up to massive voter disenfranchisement.. One superdelegate is equivalent to about 10,000 Joe Schmoe voters. It's a coronation, not an election. Unless Bernie can literally STEAL the superdelegates from Hilary the same way Obama did.
Being a nominee in the Dem party is now a PATRONAGE job. It's measured by how much money you've raised, how many times you've taken a bullet for cause and how willing you are to spin and deflect for the party..
In the Libertarian Debates (yes they were TELEVISED on Stossel) -- it was agreed by ALL the candidate that BERNIE was correct on about 1/2 of his issues. Ending Corporate Welfare, a higher bar to military interventions, support of ALL 10 of the Bill of Rights, etc.. So I suspect -- that if the Dem party simply erases his efforts to turn the party pink ---- there WILL be just as many #neverhiliary as #nevertrump voters looking at Johnson..
Our problem is -- Johnson has the charisma of a banana slug.. Or he USED to. He's loosened up a bit. He got a lot stuff DONE in New Mexico without making it ----- about him..
But yes if there's any time for libertarians to bust a move, it is now. Problem is trump and the GOP will blame the loss on the libertarian 3rd party. Wether or not GOP base buys that, we shall see in the house elections in 2 years.
Probable scenario I see for 3rd party libertarian ticket in near future: Clinton wins election, economic bubble burst, Clinton takes blame, some dems shift left to sanders, social lib/fisc cons move to libertarian, libertarian doesn't fully take over GOP but still a good share, put a Rubio-esq eloquent type head for lib party and libertarians have a good shot at presidency with a close 3 way race.