Who creates truth in Russia?

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Putin Said to Explore Sidelining Assad Even as Russia Arms Him
Sep 13, 2015 | Russia in whirlwind talks with U.S., Saudis, Syrian opposition; Arms buildup may be Russian bargaining chip for peace talks
Russia is sending signals to the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that it may allow Syria’s embattled leader Bashar al-Assad to be eased out of power as it seeks to forge a united front against Islamic State and retain influence in the region, officials and Syrian opposition leaders said. Officials from the three countries, as well as from the opposition, have been negotiating possible terms for sidelining Assad since at least June, when President Vladimir Putin hosted Saudi King Salman’s son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed, they said. Saudi Arabia is Assad’s main regional enemy, while Russia is his longtime ally. Since then, Russia’s whirlwind diplomacy has brought key officials from across the region to Moscow for talks.

Syria’s civil war has traumatized the Middle East, spilling into neighbors and enabling the rise of Islamic State amid the turmoil. The latest Russian-backed efforts to end the conflict come as its fallout spreads westwards, with hundreds of thousands of migrants seeking refuge in the European Union. Like every other aspect of the war in Syria, though, Russia’s policy isn’t straightforward. U.S. and Russian officials say they’re weighing a transition plan that would strip Assad of power while remaining interim head of state.

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A view of former Syrian army MiG-23 fighter jets at the Abu Duhur military airport, the last regime-held military base in northwestern Idlib province.

Putin Gambit

“There’s a convergence on the threat of ISIS,” Paul Salem, vice president of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said by phone, using an acronym for Islamic State. “This convergence wasn’t there when they last tried diplomacy two years ago.” Yet at the same time, Russia is ramping up military aid to Syria, home to its only naval base outside the former Soviet Union. Big questions remain, the U.S. official stressed, including whether Putin really is prepared to see Assad marginalized and, if so, whether he can persuade him to go quietly.

U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia is set to start flying combat missions from a new air hub inside Syria, other American officials said. Putin may be betting that an increased military presence will either help Assad stay in power or give Russia more sway in influencing the outcome of the crisis if the Syrian leader is forced out. ISIS controls as much as half of the country, while rebel militias backed by the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar are gaining ground, leaving only about a fifth under the government’s firm control, according to Amos Gilad, a senior Israeli defense official. That area is home to most of the population, though, including key urban centers such as the capital, Damascus.

Diplomacy or War?

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What is Russia up to in Syria?
Wed September 16, 2015 - For the third time in 10 days, the Russian foreign minister has received an alarmed telephone call from his American counterpart over Syria.
U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry has been positively badgering Sergei Lavrov with expressions of concern over reports of a Russian military build-up in Syria, and warnings over the disastrous consequences of Moscow continuing to back its long-time Syrian ally, Bashar al Assad. The latest warnings from Washington -- so far unheeded by Moscow -- come as satellite images of a Syrian government-held air base at Latakia appear to confirm an expansion of Russia's military footprint. U.S. officials say they believe Russia may be constructing a forward air operating base there, though no Russian fighter aircraft have, as yet, been deployed, according to the Pentagon.

The Kremlin denies expanding its presence in Syria, but makes no secret of its military assistance to the government of the country, which it sees as a bulwark against extremist groups like ISIS. Speaking in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, at a regional security conference this week, Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, made an impassioned defense of his support for the Assad regime, encouraging other countries to do the same. "We support the Syrian government in fighting the terrorist aggression. We have been and will be providing all necessary military-technical assistance and we call on other countries to join us," Putin told the delegates. "If Russia hadn't been supporting Syria, the situation there would be worse than in Libya and we would see more refugees," he added.

Russian self-interest

But it would be naïve to see Russia's apparently unflinching support for the Syrian government in terms of anything other than self-interest. For one, the Kremlin is genuinely concerned about the consequences for its own security if Islamist rebels were to make further gains in Syria, or even take control of the country. Russia has an Islamist insurgency of its own, in the North Caucasus region, which includes Chechnya, and there are fears an ISIS victory in Syria may have reverberations there. Some of the top military commanders of ISIS are Russian speakers of Chechen origin.

Secondly, Russia has commercial and military interests in Syria it very much wants to keep, but could lose in any Syrian regime change. These include, but are not limited to, a naval facility at Tartus, Russia's only Mediterranean toe-hold. Russia has billions of dollars of commercial investments in Syria too, including oil and gas infrastructure, which it wants to protect.

International influence
 
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Putin gets the green light to send troops on the ground in Syria...

Russian Lawmakers Give Putin OK to Use Troops in Syria
Sep 30, 2015 -- Russian lawmakers voted unanimously Wednesday to let President Vladimir Putin send Russian troops to Syria. The Kremlin sought to play down the decision, saying it will only use its air force there, not ground troops.
Putin had to request parliamentary approval for any use of Russian troops abroad, according to the constitution. The last time he did so was before Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in March 2014. The Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, discussed Putin's request for the authorization behind closed doors Wednesday, cutting off its live web broadcast to hold a debate notable for its quickness. Sergei Ivanov, chief of Putin's administration, said in televised remarks after the discussion that the parliament voted unanimously to give the green light to Putin's plea. The proposal does not need to go to another legislative body.

Ivanov insisted that Moscow is not going to send ground troops to Syria but will only use its air force "in order to support the government Syrian forces in their fight against the Islamic State" group. Putin and other officials have said Russia was only providing weapons and training to Syrian President Bashar Assad's army to help it combat the Islamic State group. Recent satellites images, however, have shown giant Russian military cargo planes in Syria, and Russian navy transport vessels have been shuttling back and forth for weeks to ferry troops, weapons and supplies to Syria. Putin said in a CBS interview earlier this week that Russia won't take part in any troop operations in Syria.

Worried by the threat of Russian and U.S. jets clashing inadvertently over Syrian skies, Washington agreed to talk to Moscow on how to "deconflict" their military actions. Last week, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter had a 50-minute phone call with his Russian counterpart, the first such military-to-military discussion between the two countries in more than a year. Israel has taken similar precautions, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visiting Moscow last week to agree with Putin on a coordination mechanism to avoid any possible confrontation between Israeli and Russian forces in Syria. Moscow has always been a top ally for Assad. The war in Syria against his regime, which began in 2011, has left at least 250,000 dead and forced millions to flee the country. It is also the driving force behind the record-breaking number of asylum-seekers fleeing to Europe this year.

Ivanov told reporters that Russia decided to help Assad in order to protect its own country from Islamic militants, not because of "some foreign policy goals or ambitions that our Western partners often accuse us of." "We are talking about Russia's national security interests," Ivanov said, adding that Moscow is worried about the growing number of Russian recruits going off to fight for the Islamic State group -- a number he said was in the thousands. Moscow should "take pre-emptive steps and do it on distant frontiers, instead of facing the issue here and later on," said Ivanov.

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House Leader Calls for Beefed-up US Response to IS, Russia
Sep 29, 2015 | WASHINGTON -- The front-runner to become the next leader of the U.S. House of Representatives denounced President Barack Obama's foreign policy on Monday, saying the U.S. has "lost the respect of allies and adversaries alike."
Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who spoke after the president addressed the United Nations, said the U.S. should consider putting some special forces on the ground in Iraq to help coordinate airstrikes against Islamic State militants. He also backed a no-fly zone in northern Syria to stem the flow of refugees, and provide a space for Syrian rebels to fight the militants -- steps the White House has so far opposed.

"We must wage this war against radical Islam as if our life depended on it. Because it does," said McCarthy, who also reiterated his criticism of the international nuclear deal with Iran. "We have lost the respect of allies and adversaries alike. We have isolated Israel while emboldening nations like Iran. We let North Korea threaten South Korea, Russia encroach on Ukraine and now China is asserting a greater sphere of influence," McCarthy said. "Wherever we look, the world is less safe and less secure because America is less engaged."

McCarthy is a heavy favorite to replace John Boehner in one of the most powerful jobs in Washington and become second in line to succeed the president. The speaker announced his resignation Friday amid growing discontent among some of the most conservative members of the House Republican conference. Reporters rushed McCarthy after his speech, but he wouldn't confirm that he was going to run for the speakership, even though it's widely expected that he will.

House Leader Calls for Beefed-up US Response to IS, Russia | Military.com
 

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