A Day Ending in Y So Another Environmental Doomsday Prediction

[The Sage of Main Street]

The concept of a "pause" in temperature trends is often a questionable concept. First of all the data is a time series data which has the potential for autocorrelation issues, so estimating a trend can be tricky in terms of establishing the statistical significance of the slope.

Pauses are often anything but meaningful (this is from 2018 so it is probably talking about earlier "pauses" seen in the data):

'Pause' in global warming was never real, scientists say – Physics World

Pair of new studies disproves claims of a "pause" in observed global temperature warming

physicsworld.com

If you window the data just right you can find "pauses" all over the place. And in some But overall the trend is upward generally.

I'm not comfortable in saying that pauses never happen since data is inherently noisy and the systems complex. But usually a pause isn't really all that indicative of some major underlying problem with the concept of AGW.

The Upper Floors of the Tower of Babel

No truly educated person should believe you, because you don't even know that the word data is plural. So you just follow the preaching of the equally ignorant self-appointed guardians. They fake their sophistication by carelessly misusing words that they think will make them sound intelligent.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

No truly educated person should believe you, because you don't even know that the word data is plural.

I do know that and I will freely admit that I occasionally use it in a singular sense. Not uncommon. But you are quite correct.

So you just follow the preaching of the equally ignorant self-appointed guardians.

Based on the incorrect usage of the word "data" vs "datum" you have drawn a rather broad conclusion.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

I do know that and I will freely admit that I occasionally use it in a singular sense. Not uncommon. But you are quite correct.



Based on the incorrect usage of the word "data" vs "datum" you have drawn a rather broad conclusion.

Parrot Aphasia

Self-appointed experts should be held to a higher standard. Their carelessness about learning grammar indicates that they were careless about learning very deeply the subjects they have credentials in. Superficial and pompous, these overrated pundits mindlessly repeat whatever is preached by the loudest mouths in their clique.

On hearing or reading their defective and dysfunctional language, an intelligent person should become suspicious and not accept their credentials and degrees as any proof that they should be respected and listened to. But our backward education makes us lazily accept the words of this clique as an excuse for not thinking any further. Our professionals today know the required body of knowledge of a particular subject, but their shallow knowledge of grammar shows that they have knowledge without understanding.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

Parrot Aphasia

Is this your "schtick"? Providing a quippy title to your rants? Clever. Makes you look, ummmm....really cool.

Self-appointed experts should be held to a higher standard. Their carelessness about learning grammar indicates that they were careless about learning very deeply the subjects they have credentials in.

OK.

On hearing or reading their defective and dysfunctional language, an intelligent person should become suspicious and not accept their credentials and degrees as any proof that they should be respected and listened to.

By your metric I assume you must also go after the various climate skeptics on here who write like brain-damaged 2nd graders, right? There's one poster who NEVER USES PERIODS. Just intersperse ellipses in their posts. It's bizarre.

I missed your "take down" of them.

But our backward education makes us lazily accept the words of this clique as an excuse for not thinking any further. Our professionals today know the required body of knowledge of a particular subject, but their shallow knowledge of grammar shows that they have knowledge without understanding.

Well, you've certainly got a great handle on Strunk and White and the dictionary and you should be rightfully proud of yourself. Give yourself a big ol' pat on the back.

Do you have any substantive critiques of the science I've mentioned or is grammar and syntax pedantry your thing?

 

[daveman]

Didn't read it.
As usual, you were Porked and it's surely the inevitable Ambiguation or further demand-detail-fallacy BS to save face... again. (two embarrassed ones in fact)
You are completely Ignorant of the most basic facts of the debate.
Undebatable for that reason.
I'm done with you now BOY.
`

Your "undebatable fact" is that American coal and SUVs are killing the planet. Never mind any other nation's pollution. They don't count.

No one is obligated to share your faith.

 

[daveman]

For years he had me thinking that the US was the most selfish belligerent nation on the planet. That was it was cool to be against Vietnam war. Still got some old-timey appreciation for the free speech thing from him tho and maybe a higher bar for international intervention.

I wouldn't bother with him. I read articles that say he's a shitty linguist, too. He suffers from a common leftist intellectual failure as described by RAH:

“Expertise in one field does not carry over into other fields. But experts often think so. The narrower their field of knowledge the more likely they are to think so.”

― Robert A. Heinlein, The Notebooks of Lazarus Long

It's the same as the left believing Bill Gates' opinions on world health issues have any merit. Dude wasn't even a good programmer...and I should listen to him about vaccines?

Think I'll pass on both Chomsky and Gates. They're both hacks.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

Your "undebatable fact" is that American coal and SUVs are killing the planet. Never mind any other nation's pollution. They don't count.

American coal is largely responsible for the warming accumulated so far since the Industrial Revolution. China is a late bloomer. They've taken over the lead but only recently. WE (and western Europe) bear responsibility for about 140 years worth of emissions from coal.

No one is obligated to share your faith.

And no one is required to take your grotesque version of "ethics" either. In your version of ethics apparently you don't have to take responsibility for things you did in the past AND you don't have to do any better than the absolute worst person nearest to you.

That's sad. But not uncommon.

 

[daveman]

American coal is largely responsible for the warming accumulated so far since the Industrial Revolution. China is a late bloomer. They've taken over the lead but only recently. WE (and western Europe) bear responsibility for about 140 years worth of emissions from coal.



And no one is required to take your grotesque version of "ethics" either. In your version of ethics apparently you don't have to take responsibility for things you did in the past AND you don't have to do any better than the absolute worst person nearest to you.

That's sad. But not uncommon.

Can you explain to me -- degree of difficulty: The explanation must be rational -- how I'm personally responsible for things that happened almost a century before my birth?

 

[abu afak]

Your "undebatable fact" is that American coal and SUVs are killing the planet. Never mind any other nation's pollution. They don't count.

No one is obligated to share your faith.

No it is not my "undebatable fact" nor is it "faith."
It's an Idiotic diversion/deflection.. all one could ever get from you, and not responsive to the post I made.
My fact was it Is getting warmer and the last 8 years have on avg been the warmest.
YOU DID NOT TOUCH MY FACT.
This IS due to emissions "worldwide" not "American." AGW you Flag-Baiting POS.
WE are doing a GREAT job of cutting emissions and adding Renewable power generation. Chindia, et al, NOT.
Amazingly, Our Private industry is doing a virtual 'GND' without any legislation because Renewables ARE Cheaper.

You really are a hostile little RW Troll. You make FCT look smart. (or a better fake anyway)
You are a low IQ partisan and not capable of linear/responsive debate.
`

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

Can you explain to me -- degree of difficulty: The explanation must be rational -- how I'm personally responsible for things that happened almost a century before my birth?

Sure. I assume you are living in America. That you are born and bred American. As such, you are currently living in the richest country that has EVER existed. You have a HUGE number of advantages over anyone who has EVER lived on the planet before you. Those advantages come from our advanced, first world lifestyle. That was built on all of the bad stuff we did to get where we are.

It's a pretty simple calculus.

You didn't ASK to be born here, and you are free to leave at any time. But you don't because you ENJOY these benefits. I do as well!

What is being asked of you is: Now that YOU are an adult and part of the group responsible for the FUTURE ACTIONS of this country (through your job as a voting and informed citizen) to make amends for those things which we now understand caused harm.

The good news is: America is already doing a lot of that. But not necessarily for the right reasons and here's why: we are eliminating a lot of our emissions by offshoring the manufacturing we still need. We actually SEEK out parts of the world that are underdeveloped and have lax environmental and human rights records to MAKE THE GOODS WE WANT SO DESPERATELY.

We are the world's "consumers". Literally. America is the land of the consumer. Our role on the planet is to give other people our money in return for cheap plastic trash and cheap clothing.

So yeah, our "emissions" make us look virtuous, until you realize we are anything but. WE are driving China's push with coal fired powerplants. WE are responsible for it.

 

[daveman]

No it is not my "undebatable fact" nor is it "faith."
It's an Idiotic diversion/deflection.. all one could ever get from you, and not responsive to the post I made.
My fact was it Is getting warmer and the last 8 years have on avg been the warmest.
YOU DID NOT TOUCH MY FACT.
This IS due to emissions "worldwide" not "American." AGW you Flag-Baiting POS.
WE are doing a GREAT job of cutting emissions and adding Renewable power generation. Chindia, et al, NOT.
Amazingly, Our Private industry is doing a virtual 'GND' without any legislation because Renewables ARE Cheaper.

You really are a hostile little RW Troll. You make FCT look smart. (or a better fake anyway)
You are a low IQ partisan and not capable of linear/responsive debate.
`

You sure are a whiny little bitch, aren't you?

I'm not interested in debating you. You don't want debate, anyway -- you want instant, unthinking agreement and endorsement.

No, I'm mocking your over-the-top emotionalism. Don't like it? Stop being so emotional.

 

[daveman]

Sure. I assume you are living in America. That you are born and bred American. As such, you are currently living in the richest country that has EVER existed. You have a HUGE number of advantages over anyone who has EVER lived on the planet before you. Those advantages come from our advanced, first world lifestyle. That was built on all of the bad stuff we did to get where we are.

It's a pretty simple calculus.

You didn't ASK to be born here, and you are free to leave at any time. But you don't because you ENJOY these benefits. I do as well!

What is being asked of you is: Now that YOU are an adult and part of the group responsible for the FUTURE ACTIONS of this country (through your job as a voting and informed citizen) to make amends for those things which we now understand caused harm.

The good news is: America is already doing a lot of that. But not necessarily for the right reasons and here's why: we are eliminating a lot of our emissions by offshoring the manufacturing we still need. We actually SEEK out parts of the world that are underdeveloped and have lax environmental and human rights records to MAKE THE GOODS WE WANT SO DESPERATELY.

We are the world's "consumers". Literally. America is the land of the consumer. Our role on the planet is to give other people our money in return for cheap plastic trash and cheap clothing.

So yeah, our "emissions" make us look virtuous, until you realize we are anything but. WE are driving China's push with coal fired powerplants. WE are responsible for it.

You failed. Your "rational" explanation is based on anti-white sociological bullshit, which blames white people for everything bad that ever happened. It's ahistorical nonsense.

I am responsible ONLY for the things I have personally done. Same as you -- but your ridiculous white guilt insists you're a bad guy simply because you were born white.

The non-whites who you're trying to ingratiate yourself with don't respect you for your guilt. They probably hold you in contempt.

I don't blame them a bit.

 

[flacaltenn]

American coal is largely responsible for the warming accumulated so far since the Industrial Revolution. China is a late bloomer. They've taken over the lead but only recently. WE (and western Europe) bear responsibility for about 140 years worth of emissions from coal.

We agree on coal. So we should probably also agree that "biomass" incineration" is no better and MAYBE less "sustainable". YET -- there it is on the list of green alternatives. Same with "geothermal" which is a dangerous polluting mining operation. ALSO on the list of "alternatives".

Given your USMB "handle" -- I'm gonna STOP SHORT of poking on SPECIFIC alternatives -- LOL ---

but NOTHING on that list other than hydro -- is an "alternative" to 24/7/365 grid power. They are ALL SUPPLEMENTS. Even hydro has it's enviro drawbacks and gets attacks by environmentalists.

SO -- Do you know who James Hansen is? The "godfather" of Global Warning and former NASA GISS head? I disagree with all of his alarmist, "activist in a labcoat shtick" but HIS prescription and that of MANY luminary enviros is that (as Hansen has said -- roughly quoted)

"If you believe that wind and solar are sufficient alternatives to FIX Global Warming -- You probably also believe in the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny."

He's a big "nuclear" fan and so am I because the enviro CARNAGE we end up with trying to design a "BATTERY CENTRIC" grid to make up for the HUGE sketchy performance of "alternatives:" is a BIGGER threat to the enviro than Global Warming as we MEASURE IT now.

 

[flacaltenn]

Sure. I assume you are living in America. That you are born and bred American. As such, you are currently living in the richest country that has EVER existed. You have a HUGE number of advantages over anyone who has EVER lived on the planet before you. Those advantages come from our advanced, first world lifestyle. That was built on all of the bad stuff we did to get where we are.

It's a pretty simple calculus.

You didn't ASK to be born here, and you are free to leave at any time. But you don't because you ENJOY these benefits. I do as well!

What is being asked of you is: Now that YOU are an adult and part of the group responsible for the FUTURE ACTIONS of this country (through your job as a voting and informed citizen) to make amends for those things which we now understand caused harm.

The good news is: America is already doing a lot of that. But not necessarily for the right reasons and here's why: we are eliminating a lot of our emissions by offshoring the manufacturing we still need. We actually SEEK out parts of the world that are underdeveloped and have lax environmental and human rights records to MAKE THE GOODS WE WANT SO DESPERATELY.

We are the world's "consumers". Literally. America is the land of the consumer. Our role on the planet is to give other people our money in return for cheap plastic trash and cheap clothing.

So yeah, our "emissions" make us look virtuous, until you realize we are anything but. WE are driving China's push with coal fired powerplants. WE are responsible for it.

Our RECENT emissions DO look great. But that's largely IN SPITE of govt and due to PRIVATE industry PRODUCING and transporting more NATURAL GAS. Enough to start closing the old coal plants that the GOVT will NOT let us upgrade to be cleaner. (long story, not going there this thread).

Because of NAT GAS production and acceptance, our CO2 emissions (CO2 is NOT a pollutant) are down to mid 1990s levels since 2018. Covid KEPT them there for a couple years.

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

SO -- Do you know who James Hansen is?

I do. I also know who Roger Revelle is. I know who Hans Suess is. I know who Svante Arrhenius is. I know who Callendar is. I know who Walter Munk is (I have even met and talked to him before his passing). Who else do I need to know about?

The "godfather" of Global Warning and former NASA GISS head? I disagree with all of his alarmist, "activist in a labcoat shtick" but HIS prescription and that of MANY luminary enviros is that (as Hansen has said -- roughly quoted)

"If you believe that wind and solar are sufficient alternatives to FIX Global Warming -- You probably also believe in the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny."

He's a big "nuclear" fan and so am I because the enviro CARNAGE we end up with trying to design a "BATTERY CENTRIC" grid to make up for the HUGE sketchy performance of "alternatives:" is a BIGGER threat to the enviro than Global Warming as we MEASURE IT now.

While I'm not a huge nuclear fan I realize that it is likely our only scalable non-greenhouse alternative.

Obviously those who are serious about green alternatives realize this AND many of us also realize that the future of energy will likely be a suite of smaller-capacity systems woven together.

 

[abu afak]

......"If you believe that wind and solar are sufficient alternatives to FIX Global Warming -- You probably also believe in the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny."

He's a big "nuclear" fan and so am I because the enviro CARNAGE we end up with trying to design a "BATTERY CENTRIC" grid to make up for the HUGE sketchy performance of "alternatives:" is a BIGGER threat to the enviro than Global Warming as we MEASURE IT now.

Response 1.

A Thread start of mine from 2018. Last Post March 6 2022. Twenty eight pages, so at the Top or near it many times for 4 YEARS. Summarizing 2016.

Global Investment in Wind and Solar Energy Is Outshining Fossil Fuels

Contrary to what you'll here from most here, incl half skookerAssbil's posts, people DO care. It's cost-effective, creating jobs, AND a better planet. **** the Throwback and Trumpov... Coal IS Dead THIS is why China put Solar on Priority and put alot of Western mfg out of Biz. Wall Street...

www.usmessageboard.com

Global Investment in Wind and Solar Energy Is Outshining Fossil Fuels​

In 2016, about $297 billion was spent on renewables—compared with $143 billion on new nuclear, coal, gas and fuel-oil power plants​

​

Wall Street Journal - June 11, 2018​

Global Investment in Wind and Solar Energy Is Outshining Fossil Fuels​

​

Global spending on renewable energy is outpacing investment in electricity from coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants, driven by Falling costs of producing wind/solar power.​

​

More than Half of the power-generating capacity added around the world in recent years has been in renewable sources such as wind/solar, according to the Int'l Energy Agency....​

Another thread start, December 25, 2021 - Last post last Wednesday! so also near the top many Times. Unmissable.
Even minimal exposure to the section, would have forced you to see One or BOTH threads. (or live in Denial)

Renewables made up 92% of new generating capacity in the U.S. in the first half of 2021

Renewables made up 92% of new generating capacity in the U.S. in the first half of 2021 [...]"...data recently released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)... FERC’s latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with...

www.usmessageboard.com

Renewables made up 92% of new generating capacity in the U.S. in the first half of 2021​

[...]"...data recently released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)...​

​

FERC’s latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” report (with data through June 30, 2021) reveals that renewable energy sources accounted for 91.6% – or 10,940 megawatts (MW) – of the 11,940 MW of new capacity added during the first six months of the year.​

Wind led the capacity additions with 5,617 MW, followed closely by solar (5,279 MW). Further, wind and solar were the ONLY sources of new capacity additions in June 2021.​

​

Renewables now provide more than a quarter (25.1%) of total U.S. available installed generating capacity. A year ago, their share was only 23.0%. Wind is now more than a tenth (10.4%) of the nation’s generating capacity while utility-scale solar is nearly five percent (4.9%) … and that does not include distributed (e.g., rooftop) solar...​

​

(PS: I believe full year number was 87%)​

`

 

[Cardinal Carminative]

You failed. Your "rational" explanation is based on anti-white sociological bullshit, which blames white people for everything bad that ever happened. It's ahistorical nonsense.

Um, not really. I don't want to shock you but America is EXTREMELY WEALTHY.

I am responsible ONLY for the things I have personally done.

Clearly you are not. You don't even take responsibility for what is going on today that YOU ARE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR.

Do you buy consumer goods in the USA? Yeah...YOU'RE PART OF THE PROBLEM.

Same as you -- but your ridiculous white guilt insists you're a bad guy simply because you were born white.

You Conservatives are all alike: terrified of personal responsibility. But you talk a big game about how OTHERS need to have it. Whether it's black inner city youth or the evil Chineeeeeeese. Everyone else but YOU. You are pure as the driven snow.

The non-whites who you're trying to ingratiate yourself with don't respect you for your guilt.

Did you leave your TIki Torch at the rally?

They probably hold you in contempt.

My morality is not predicated on who likes me the mostest. Although I am proud to have folks like you dislike me.

I don't blame them a bit.

Yeah, I get that. When, of course, you aren't hiding under your desk from BLM. OooooOOOooscary.

 

[daveman]

Um, not really. I don't want to shock you but America is EXTREMELY WEALTHY.

So? You're free to donate as much of your money as you want to others.

You are not free to donate MY money.

Clearly you are not. You don't even take responsibility for what is going on today that YOU ARE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR.

And that is...?

Do you buy consumer goods in the USA? Yeah...YOU'RE PART OF THE PROBLEM.

If Democrats hadn't made moving companies overseas so attractive people could buy more products made in America.

You Conservatives are all alike: terrified of personal responsibility. But you talk a big game about how OTHERS need to have it. Whether it's black inner city youth or the evil Chineeeeeeese. Everyone else but YOU. You are pure as the driven snow.

I have oppressed no one. I have taken away no one's rights. Therefore, I'm not responsible for that.

Good Gaea, you've been so deeply programmed with white collective guilt, you can't comprehend that people are individuals.

Pathetic.

Did you leave your TIki Torch at the rally?

I don't do rallies. I have a job. Try it someday.

My morality is not predicated on who likes me the mostest. Although I am proud to have folks like you dislike me.

I don't dislike you; I don't know anything about you, other than you're rather immature.

Yeah, I get that. When, of course, you aren't hiding under your desk from BLM. OooooOOOooscary.

Still projecting your emotionalism on normal people.

 

[abu afak]

Point is -- whoever in the Propaganda Dept of "govt science" that cobbled the quoted press release together USED just last 8 years -- Cherry-picked the period to AVOID "the hiatus" that ended with a LARGE El Nino cycle in about 2015/2016.

Conspiracy theorist at work.
You said previous to me in your sticky it ended 12 years ago.
I at least moved you to 5!

IAC!
Today 4:31 PM

If you're going to State Facts, you need to Back them up with Linked sources just like Every other poster
on this board.

We await your non-Govt science numbers LINK.
(or answer to my last post above with TWO Links)
:^)


`

 

[flacaltenn]

I do. I also know who Roger Revelle is. I know who Hans Suess is. I know who Svante Arrhenius is. I know who Callendar is. I know who Walter Munk is (I have even met and talked to him before his passing). Who else do I need to know about?



While I'm not a huge nuclear fan I realize that it is likely our only scalable non-greenhouse alternative.

Obviously those who are serious about green alternatives realize this AND many of us also realize that the future of energy will likely be a suite of smaller-capacity systems woven together.

Arrhennius and others set the basics of GHouse theory. THat's a good thing. And I accept all the basics having to do with the GHouse and CO2. It's the CATASTROPHIC tenets of GW that were OVERSOLD to the media and caused people to wet their panties. Things like accelerated and run-away warming, trigger temps and mislabeling CO2 as "CARBON pollution" to confuse GW with pollution.

You could tear down most of the coal plants, level some dams and free the salmon, stop growing stuff just to burn it and avoid battery Armageddon, if we accepted 3rd and 4th gen nuclear and became a world leader. Those NEW tech designs are EXACTLY what you're calling for in terms of size and operation. And the 60 plants that were providing 25% of our grid back a couple decades ago are dangerously old. My consulting group did a couple display retrofits for these aging plants because you can't buy direct replacements anymore.

We CANNOT be like Germany and other EU countries that DISMANTLED and tore down their grid generation without a smart plan for replacing. And the only thing APPARENTLY stopping a nuclear revival in this country is that the left is MORE afraid of nuclear than they are of GWarming.

And THAT -- is telling.