A record-setting blizzard killed 75,000 cows and you might not have even heard about

[mamooth]

Cat 5 hurricane (Typhoon Phailin) heading for northeast India. It's going to hit, so the only hope is that it weakens a bit first. It might kill around 10,000 humans, but little mention of it in any US media.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif

 

[polarbear]

Yes, winter arrived early and harsh for those folks. The same occurred in South America as well. The Farmers Almanac said it would be a harsh one. So far they are being proven correct.

Yesterday my ex- neighbor sent me birthday greetings and this picture..
Landsberg am Lech, Bavaria Germany ( 1/2 hour drive from the Octoberfest):

Last year they also had a brutal winter. Early snow and record low temps that hung in there well into spring.
Bavaria is starting to look more and more like Manitoba.

 

[bripat9643]

Cat 5 hurricane (Typhoon Phailin) heading for northeast India. It's going to hit, so the only hope is that it weakens a bit first. It might kill around 10,000 humans, but little mention of it in any US media.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif

One thing about CAT 5 hurricanes is that they rarely remain CAT 5 for long. Katrina was a CAT 5 until shortly before it his the coast when it was downgraded to CAT 4.

IF this hurricane weakens before it hits India, are you going to admit that AGW is a hoax?

 

[Mr. H.]

Cat 5 hurricane (Typhoon Phailin) heading for northeast India. It's going to hit, so the only hope is that it weakens a bit first. It might kill around 10,000 humans, but little mention of it in any US media.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif

How many cattle will die? They are sacred over there...

 

[bodecea]

A RECORD-SETTING BLIZZARD KILLED 75,000 COWS AND YOU MIGHT NOT HAVE EVEN HEARD ABOUT IT

Ranchers are still digging out thousands of their cattle that became buried in a record-setting snowstorm in South Dakota late last week and over the weekend.

One would think the death of 75,000 cows by upwards of five feet of snow might get some national attention, but as one blogger observed, it has taken some time for the news of the precipitation massacre to reach outside of local media.

--

Early estimates suggest western South Dakota lost at least 5 percent of its cattle, said Silvia Christen, executive director of the South Dakota Stockgrowers Association. Some individual ranchers reported losses of 20 percent to 50 percent of their livestock, Christen said. The storm killed calves that were due to be sold soon as well as cows that would produce next year’s calves in an area where livestock production is a big part of the economy, she said.

“This is, from an economic standpoint, something we’re going to feel for a couple of years,” Christen said.​

Dang. That's gonna hurt a lot of folks.

Sounds like that bad one they had in the late 1880s that almost destroyed the western cattle industry.

 

[westwall]

The Almanac has an 80% hit rate

Bullshit. The almanac _claims_ such a thing, but those with a functioning BS detector understand the difference between a claim and a fact.

Denialists are almost always perfect examples of this:

Right-wing authoritarianism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
---
According to research by Altemeyer, right-wing authoritarians tend to exhibit cognitive errors and symptoms of faulty reasoning. Specifically, they are more likely to make incorrect inferences from evidence and to hold contradictory ideas that result from compartmentalized thinking. They are also more likely to uncritically accept insufficient evidence that supports their beliefs, and they are less likely to acknowledge their own limitations.
---

Oh lookey, the admiral posts a non-sequiter attack instead of trying to refute the post.

How common, and pathetic....



On The Money – Farmers’ Almanac Accuracy


Major Weather Events Accurately Predicted by the Farmers’ Almanac

• The Farmers’ Almanac predicted a severe heat wave along the East Coast and Great Lakes during the summer of 2013, and those predictions came true in July, with extreme heat wilting much of that region.

• The Farmers’ Almanac predicted that the spring of 2013 would be unusually wet and cool across much of the U.S. and Canada. In the Northern and Central Plains and Western Great Lakes, April of that year was very cold, white, and wet that meteorologists don’t expect to see it happen again for another 50 or 100 years.

• For mid-February, 2013 the Farmers’ Almanac forecast a “major Northeast snowstorm” with accumulations exceeding one foot and accompanied by strong winds causing blowing snow. And indeed, a clipper system and coastal storm merged to create blizzard conditions in parts of the Northeast. The storm dumped record-setting snowfall from New York to Maine. The highest snowfall total of 40 inches was reported in Hamden, CT. Strong winds (a gust of 83 mph was reported in Falmouth, MA) brought whiteout conditions to much of New England and whipped up waves that carved a 1,600-foot-wide hole in the barrier beach near Chatham, MA. In New York, the storm left more than one hundred cars stranded along the Long Island Expressway while in Connecticut there were reports of over a dozen collapsed roofs due to the snow. The storm left some 650,000 customers without power and resulted in a dozen deaths.

• The Farmers’ Almanac predicted that the summer of 2012 would be exceptionally hot in many regions of the U.S., and July 2012 proved to be the hottest month ever recorded in U.S. history.

• The Farmers’ Almanac forewarned of a tropical disturbance for the Southeast during late June, 2012, and tropical storm Debby hit on June 24th.

• The Farmers’ Almanac accurately predicted a wet winter of 2011-12 for Texas. Heavy precipitation helped to alleviate their severe drought, shrinking the total area affected from 43.3% in early December to 14.8% by the end of February.

• The Farmers’ Almanac called for a balmy winter for the Southern and Eastern U.S. in 2011-12. For New England, New York, New Jersey, and Delaware, the winter ranked as either the second or third warmest winter in 117 years of available records. Massachusetts tied for its warmest February. It was the second warmest winter on record for Boston and New York; the fourth warmest for Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia.

• The Farmers’ Almanac once again predicted a major snowstorm would hit the Rockies and Plains in the opening days of February 2012. February 2nd–4th saw a very heavy snowstorm that blanketed Colorado and Nebraska. Denver set a new snowstorm record for February of 15.9 inches.

• The Farmers’ Almanac accurately predicted the major winter storm that brought blizzard conditions to parts of the Southern Rockies and Central Plains on December 19th and 20th, 2011.

• The Farmers’ Almanac predicted a major storm for the East Coast between October 28th and 31st, 2011. On October 29th, a deepening storm system moved up the Eastern seaboard, interacted with an unusually chilly airmass, and snowflakes began to fall. It was a stormy period for the Northeast U.S., with copious rain and even snow over higher elevations and northern New England.

• The 2011 Farmers’ Almanac also forecast a hurricane threat for the Southeastern U.S. at the end of August, which came true in the form of Hurricane Irene.
On The Money ? Farmers? Almanac Accuracy | Farmers' Almanac



DALLAS — The Farmers' Almanac hit newsstands Monday and is already creating a buzz for the upcoming winter. The 197-year-old publication is describing the 2013-2014 winter with phrases that include "bitterly cold" and "piercing cold."

Their forecast is also flagging the first week of February for a major snowstorm in the Northeast. This would possibly disrupt the Super Bowl that is being played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey that first week.

Next year's Super Bowl could be renamed the "Storm Bowl" if this prediction plays out.

"Caleb Weatherbee," the pseudonym of the publication's official forecaster, said the "Days of Shivery" are back for the 2013-2014 season. Below average temperatures are predicted for at least two-thirds of the nation.

Texas is pegged to have a "frosty and unusually wet" winter.

The Farmers' Almanac says its predictions are about 80 percent accurate. Does that accuracy hold for past weather events in North Texas?

We checked the facts versus the Farmers' Almanac predictions for three major North Texas weather events. Explanations from the Farmers' Almanac were provided by managing editor Sandi Duncan.

A snowy Super Bowl — First week of February 2011

FACT: North Texas experienced major winter weather just before the Super Bowl at what was then Cowboys Statdium on February 6, 2011. The first week of February started off with high temperatures in the 20s and lows dropping into the teens. Record snowfall was recorded for February 3-4, 2011 at DFW International Airport. The snowy start to the month plus the icy roads disrupted many Super Bowl activities. Many events were cancelled in and around Dallas-Fort Worth.

FARMERS' ALMANAC PREDICTION: We predicted snow and ice in the days leading up to and after the game, but not for the game day itself.

CONCLUSION: Generally accurate.

The heat wave during the summer of 2011 (June - August 2011)

FACT: The summer of 2011 went in the record books as the 2nd hottest summer ever. DFW International Airport recorded at or above 100-degree temperatures 40 days straight — from July 2 through August 10. That summer also took the top slot for most 100-degree days in a year with a total of 71.

FARMERS' ALMANAC PREDICTION: We predicted that the summer would be "hotter than average."

CONCLUSION: Generally accurate.

April 3, 2012 tornado outbreak

FACT: The afternoon of April 3 turned chaotic as an outflow boundary from Oklahoma swept in producing a tornadic environment across North Texas. There were 17 confirmed tornado touchdowns in North Texas. Even with that many tornadoes touching down in a major metropolitan area, there were no fatalities due to quick responses to the threat of severe weather.

FARMERS' ALMANAC: We predicted thunderstorms. We rarely predict tornadoes, but we make it clear that tornadoes are a threat during any major thunderstorm.

CONCLUSION: Generally accurate.

The Farmers' Almanac had 'general predictions' that did line up with what happened during these three weather events in North Texas. The publication may be a good source to get a general idea of the upcoming weather patterns, but it may not be the best tool for pin-pointing day-to-day forecasts.

According to the Farmers' Almanac, everyone better dust off those coats and gloves for the upcoming winter!











Fact-checking the Farmers' Almanac | wfaa.com Dallas - Fort Worth

 

[mamooth]

IF this hurricane weakens before it hits India, are you going to admit that AGW is a hoax?

You'll have to explain the logic behind that, since our mere earth logic can't parse it.

 

[mamooth]

Major Weather Events Accurately Predicted by the Farmers’ Almanac

The first trick of OFA is to make safe bet predictions, like "It will get hot there in summer".

Probing Question: Is the Farmers' Almanac accurate? | Penn State University
---
Knight points out that the Farmers' Almanac words its predictions imprecisely, making it difficult to assess their accuracy.

"They say from November 5 thru 10, for that whole period: sunny/cool. If one day is sunny and cool, does that count? Does every day have to be sunny and cool? If you held them to every single word for the entire area and every word for the entire period, then I say they might not even be right one third of the time. In fact, they might be right 10 percent of the time." Acknowledges Knight, "I don't think they're holding themselves to that degree of accuracy, and I don't think other people are either."

Perhaps the strongest long-term predictor when it comes to weather is climate history, the way the weather "normally" behaves in a given region. But awareness of the past record, Knight points out, requires little to no scientific skill.

"I could say things like October 8 to 15 in this area: generally dry, very cool weather expected; first frost and freezes in the valleys. And I would be right probably eight out of 10 years," says Knight. "I could say February 12 to 19: heavy snow along parts of the eastern seaboard. I'm going to be right seven out of 10 years. There is some relative frequency to these things, but to say that this is of great scientific accuracy would be a real misnomer."
---

The second trick, make a whole buttload of predictions. Since you'll get many of them right by chance, you can then simply list the ones you got right, and conveniently forget to list the ones you got wrong.

Let's check with the people who tallied _all_ the predictions. What do we find when the cherrypicking is removed?

Farmer's Almanacs: Right as Rain or 3 Dollar Bills? : Discovery News : Discovery News
---
The forecasts are sometimes correct. In terms of getting the sense of the weather anomalies right, for example whether it will be colder or warmer than normal, the OFA is correct about 50 percent of the time," said Bond.

"Of course this is no better than flipping a coin," he added.

Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services has compared "Old Farmer's Almanac" forecasts to actual weather conditions across the United States for much of the 2000's. His results corroborate those of Bond.

Back in 1981 another study, published in Weatherwise , looked at 60 monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts for 32 weather stations across the U.S. and compared them to "Old Farmer's Almanac" forecasts. Once again, the accuracy of the "Old Farmer's Almanac" was found to be no better than flipping a coin.
---

Finally, let's look at their 2013/2014 predictions.

"Farmers' Almanac" predicts a "bitterly cold" winter - CBS News

The Wyoming/Dakotas area of the blizzard was predicted as "normal snowfall". Oops. Westwall, do you think 5 feet in October is normal snowfall?

 

[westwall]

Major Weather Events Accurately Predicted by the Farmers’ Almanac

The first trick of OFA is to make safe bet predictions, like "It will get hot there in summer".

Probing Question: Is the Farmers' Almanac accurate? | Penn State University
---
Knight points out that the Farmers' Almanac words its predictions imprecisely, making it difficult to assess their accuracy.

"They say from November 5 thru 10, for that whole period: sunny/cool. If one day is sunny and cool, does that count? Does every day have to be sunny and cool? If you held them to every single word for the entire area and every word for the entire period, then I say they might not even be right one third of the time. In fact, they might be right 10 percent of the time." Acknowledges Knight, "I don't think they're holding themselves to that degree of accuracy, and I don't think other people are either."

Perhaps the strongest long-term predictor when it comes to weather is climate history, the way the weather "normally" behaves in a given region. But awareness of the past record, Knight points out, requires little to no scientific skill.

"I could say things like October 8 to 15 in this area: generally dry, very cool weather expected; first frost and freezes in the valleys. And I would be right probably eight out of 10 years," says Knight. "I could say February 12 to 19: heavy snow along parts of the eastern seaboard. I'm going to be right seven out of 10 years. There is some relative frequency to these things, but to say that this is of great scientific accuracy would be a real misnomer."
---

The second trick, make a whole buttload of predictions. Since you'll get many of them right by chance, you can then simply list the ones you got right, and conveniently forget to list the ones you got wrong.

Let's check with the people who tallied _all_ the predictions. What do we find when the cherrypicking is removed?

Farmer's Almanacs: Right as Rain or 3 Dollar Bills? : Discovery News : Discovery News
---
The forecasts are sometimes correct. In terms of getting the sense of the weather anomalies right, for example whether it will be colder or warmer than normal, the OFA is correct about 50 percent of the time," said Bond.

"Of course this is no better than flipping a coin," he added.

Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services has compared "Old Farmer's Almanac" forecasts to actual weather conditions across the United States for much of the 2000's. His results corroborate those of Bond.

Back in 1981 another study, published in Weatherwise , looked at 60 monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts for 32 weather stations across the U.S. and compared them to "Old Farmer's Almanac" forecasts. Once again, the accuracy of the "Old Farmer's Almanac" was found to be no better than flipping a coin.
---

Finally, let's look at their 2013/2014 predictions.

"Farmers' Almanac" predicts a "bitterly cold" winter - CBS News

The Wyoming/Dakotas area of the blizzard was predicted as "normal snowfall". Oops. Westwall, do you think 5 feet in October is normal snowfall?

Penn State? OK, we've now confirmed that you think having the fox watch the chicken coop is a smart idea. Hope you don't starve. And according to your precious Penn State weenies there should be NO SNOW this year, or last , or the one before that etc. If you want a catastrophic failure of prediction go to a climatologist. They are so bad that now they make predictions that are so far in the future there is no way to check them.. Classic, just classic.

 

[mamooth]

Nice "It's all a conspiracy!" dodge.

You apparently do think that predicting "normal" and getting "5 feet in October" means a successful prediction. I don't think I can add to that.

 

[Foxfyre]

The point is, that a lot of farmers and ranchers lost a lot of livestock when they were blindsided by this blizzard. Because it has been so thinly covered by the mainstream media, the only way I heard about it is via friends from my church who have friends and relatives up there. It was really a very tragic thing.\

So why was it so thinly covered? I can't say with any hard evidence, but my jaded self suspects that the mainstream media did not want a lot of people to know and thereby draw a conclusion that global warming my not just be stalled, but actually may be in reverse. It wouldn't be politically correct.

I hope I am wrong about that.

 

[daveman]

there was a few problems

first most cattle this early in the year are out on grazing pastures

two this early in the year the cattle have not grown their winter hides

Then, it rained for 12 hours before it changed to snow...so the cows were soaked. Hypothermia got 'em.

beef cattle pretty much live outside 24/7 /365

the summer pastures offer little or no protection from the elements

Exactly.

Question: Do they sell off a lot of the herd in the fall, so they have room to winter the remaining head in barns?

 

[daveman]

Cat 5 hurricane (Typhoon Phailin) heading for northeast India. It's going to hit, so the only hope is that it weakens a bit first. It might kill around 10,000 humans, but little mention of it in any US media.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213.gif

Did you have a point?

 

[Abraham3]

Global warming's affect on weather extremes is - obviously - a global effect.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Global warming's affect on weather extremes is - obviously - a global effect.

Global warming... its not warming and its not global

 

[Abraham3]

So why was it so thinly covered? I can't say with any hard evidence,

Then maybe you shouldn't say at all.

but my jaded self suspects that the mainstream media did not want a lot of people to know and thereby draw a conclusion that global warming my not just be stalled, but actually may be in reverse. It wouldn't be politically correct.

I hope I am wrong about that.

I would hope that you'd check facts before making ignorant accusations like that. You don't live in the area. You have no idea what the locals were getting from their weather services. And to suggest that they would modify their forecasts to boost global warming is... disgusting. Why don't you tell us about the weatherman's pedophilia and how they beat their wives? You have exactly as much evidence that they are guilty of such things.

 

[daveman]

Global warming's affect on weather extremes is - obviously - a global effect.

Oh. And you just AUTOMATICALLY assume global warming is to blame.

Well, it's easier than thinking, I suppose.

 

[Abraham3]

Global warming's affect on weather extremes is - obviously - a global effect.

Oh. And you just AUTOMATICALLY assume global warming is to blame.

Well, it's easier than thinking, I suppose.

Not as easy as what you do here.

Do you think increasing the Earth's average temperature (land, air and water) will have no effect on weather? Yes or no please.

 

[westwall]

Global warming's affect on weather extremes is - obviously - a global effect.

Oh. And you just AUTOMATICALLY assume global warming is to blame.

Well, it's easier than thinking, I suppose.

You don't NEED to think when you have faith.

 

[daveman]

Global warming's affect on weather extremes is - obviously - a global effect.

Oh. And you just AUTOMATICALLY assume global warming is to blame.

Well, it's easier than thinking, I suppose.

Not as easy as what you do here.

Do you think increasing the Earth's average temperature (land, air and water) will have no effect on weather? Yes or no please.

Your question presupposes the temperature is increasing.

It's not.

Nor is weather getting more extreme.

Sorry Global Warmists, But Extreme Weather Events Are Becoming Less Extreme - Forbes