Are the Polls Accurate? Here is the Unbiased Data.

[WelfareQueen]

:

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Are you aware that every time the RWnuts like you claim the polls are biased because a Democrat is winning it turns out that you were full of shit?

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

 

[Sherry]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Are you aware that every time the RWnuts like you claim the polls are biased because a Democrat is winning it turns out that you were full of shit?

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

 

[NYcarbineer]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Are you aware that every time the RWnuts like you claim the polls are biased because a Democrat is winning it turns out that you were full of shit?

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

 

[Juan de Fuca]

I thought this was fantastic news:

"A surge in Democratic voter registration has cut Republicans’ advantage in Orange County to less than 6 percentage points and has doubled the number of Democratic cities over the past year.

The Republican margin has been shrinking since 1990, when the GOP edge was 22 points. But in the past six months, the pace of change has been four times as fast as the 26-year average – due in part to the GOP’s controversial presidential nominee. That could hurt the local Republicans in November’s down-ticket races."


Democratic surge shrinks GOP lead

Wow! there was a time when Orange County California was untouchable, not anymore it seems. I also heard Darrel Issa is in trouble and could lose his seat, now that's something I could celebrate over.

 

[Sherry]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Are you aware that every time the RWnuts like you claim the polls are biased because a Democrat is winning it turns out that you were full of shit?

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

If you're so confident, then no need to get your panties in a twist about a harmless conversation regarding polling...your defensive posturing is amusing.

 

[WelfareQueen]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Are you aware that every time the RWnuts like you claim the polls are biased because a Democrat is winning it turns out that you were full of shit?

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

Too bad the election isn't being held tomorrow. Remember less than two weeks ago Trump was up is the Real Clear Politics polling average. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics. Don't be stupid.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Are you aware that every time the RWnuts like you claim the polls are biased because a Democrat is winning it turns out that you were full of shit?

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

If you're so confident, then no need to get your panties in a twist about a harmless conversation regarding polling...your defensive posturing is amusing.

Pointing out how retarded people like you are is an exercise that never loses its value.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Are you aware that every time the RWnuts like you claim the polls are biased because a Democrat is winning it turns out that you were full of shit?

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

Too bad the election is being held tomorrow. Remember less than two weeks ago Trump was up is the Real Clear Politics polling average. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics. Don't be stupid.

Did you say that to all the usual suspects on USMB who were ranting about Trump being ahead at the time?

 

[WelfareQueen]

I thought this was fantastic news:

"A surge in Democratic voter registration has cut Republicans’ advantage in Orange County to less than 6 percentage points and has doubled the number of Democratic cities over the past year.

The Republican margin has been shrinking since 1990, when the GOP edge was 22 points. But in the past six months, the pace of change has been four times as fast as the 26-year average – due in part to the GOP’s controversial presidential nominee. That could hurt the local Republicans in November’s down-ticket races."


Democratic surge shrinks GOP lead

Wow! there was a time when Orange County California was untouchable, not anymore it seems. I also heard Darrel Issa is in trouble and could lose his seat, now that's something I could celebrate over.

So is California now in play? WGAS? Now GOP increases in new voter registrations over Dems in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania that are in play is much more interesting.

 

[Sherry]

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

If you're so confident, then no need to get your panties in a twist about a harmless conversation regarding polling...your defensive posturing is amusing.

Pointing out how retarded people like you are is an exercise that never loses its value.

Awww you really are a sensitive little pussy.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Please note.....per Nate Silver's data most big name pollsters currently have a slight Democrat bias. These include Pew, NBC, ABC, Fox, Reuters, Time, NYT Times...etc.

Gallup and Rasmussen are the only major pollsters I can see with a slight GOP built in bias.

Also Quinnipiac, Marist, Siena, LA Times, Ohio Poll, Fox/Opinion Dynamics, Public Policy Institute.

Those are all "major" pollsters, too.

And interestingly.....Fox, CBS/NYT, ABC/Washington Post all currently have a .6% Democrat bias. When the spread is now 7 points between all polling organizations it tells me they are uncertain and the polls are not to be trusted very highly. The last three election cycles there was general consensus among pollsters and they were mostly correct.

The fact there does not appear to be strong consensus is troubling.

There is consensus, though. A point or two in either direction doesn't make the polls conflict.

There is much more than a 1 point spread between the polls. The range is from Dem +2.5 to GOP +4.5. Granted....those are the outliers....but a seven point spread is a huge difference.

There will always be outliers, but the majority (or the respectable ones, at least) have biases within their own polling margin of error.

I agree that there are plenty of problems with polling, and they're all getting worse - but there are even more issues with the way people use polling.

Polls don't tell you who's going to win the Presidency. They give you a snapshot of public opinion at a given time.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Settle down Beavis.....I am not saying the polls are inaccurate and the quote of bias is from Nate Silver....not me. Read the information before you comment.

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

Too bad the election is being held tomorrow. Remember less than two weeks ago Trump was up is the Real Clear Politics polling average. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics. Don't be stupid.

Did you say that to all the usual suspects on USMB who were ranting about Trump being ahead at the time?

Your really are a sad little man.

 

[NYcarbineer]

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

If you're so confident, then no need to get your panties in a twist about a harmless conversation regarding polling...your defensive posturing is amusing.

Pointing out how retarded people like you are is an exercise that never loses its value.

Awww you really are a sensitive little pussy.

Is that in contrast to your gigantic pussy?

 

[NYcarbineer]

You're not biased? That's the best lie I've ever heard on USMB.

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

Too bad the election is being held tomorrow. Remember less than two weeks ago Trump was up is the Real Clear Politics polling average. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics. Don't be stupid.

Did you say that to all the usual suspects on USMB who were ranting about Trump being ahead at the time?

Your really are a sad little man.

Is that a yes or a no?

 

[Sherry]

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

If you're so confident, then no need to get your panties in a twist about a harmless conversation regarding polling...your defensive posturing is amusing.

Pointing out how retarded people like you are is an exercise that never loses its value.

Awww you really are a sensitive little pussy.

Is that in contrast to your gigantic pussy?

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Please note.....per Nate Silver's data most big name pollsters currently have a slight Democrat bias. These include Pew, NBC, ABC, Fox, Reuters, Time, NYT Times...etc.

Gallup and Rasmussen are the only major pollsters I can see with a slight GOP built in bias.

Also Quinnipiac, Marist, Siena, LA Times, Ohio Poll, Fox/Opinion Dynamics, Public Policy Institute.

Those are all "major" pollsters, too.

And interestingly.....Fox, CBS/NYT, ABC/Washington Post all currently have a .6% Democrat bias. When the spread is now 7 points between all polling organizations it tells me they are uncertain and the polls are not to be trusted very highly. The last three election cycles there was general consensus among pollsters and they were mostly correct.

The fact there does not appear to be strong consensus is troubling.

There is consensus, though. A point or two in either direction doesn't make the polls conflict.

There is much more than a 1 point spread between the polls. The range is from Dem +2.5 to GOP +4.5. Granted....those are the outliers....but a seven point spread is a huge difference.

There will always be outliers, but the majority (or the respectable ones, at least) have biases within their own polling margin of error.

I agree that there are plenty of problems with polling, and they're all getting worse - but there are even more issues with the way people use polling.

Polls don't tell you who's going to win the Presidency. They give you a snapshot of public opinion at a given time.

Doc I sincerely appreciate your comments. I have learned some things. And yeah...when a guy like Nate Silver says he's concerned about current polling then I sit up and take notice. But I want to be clear....Right now I think Trump is down...no question. But how much.....I don't really know.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

If you're so confident, then no need to get your panties in a twist about a harmless conversation regarding polling...your defensive posturing is amusing.

Pointing out how retarded people like you are is an exercise that never loses its value.

Awww you really are a sensitive little pussy.

Is that in contrast to your gigantic pussy?

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

 

[WelfareQueen]

We all have a bias and yet are still capable of making educated and informed opinions...or maybe you're not.

Trump is losing and losing big. That is not an arguable fact.

Too bad the election is being held tomorrow. Remember less than two weeks ago Trump was up is the Real Clear Politics polling average. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics. Don't be stupid.

Did you say that to all the usual suspects on USMB who were ranting about Trump being ahead at the time?

Your really are a sad little man.

Is that a yes or a no?

Here.....as a 60 year old virgin....I think this might help.

 

[NYcarbineer]

WelfareQueen talked this same shit back in 2012.

 

[oreo]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Only 1 in 10 people will pick up on unknown callers anymore. But the writing is on the wall when the Clinton Super Pac funds have left several battleground swing states. Their internal polling data is telling them they have a huge lead in these states, so they're taking those adds and putting them in RED states that they know are in play.
Confident Clinton Pulling Ads, as the Trump Train Goes Off the Rails | RedState
Relax, Donald Trump Can’t Win

And Trump's ground game is even worse.
Donald Trump ground-game problem