- Sep 5, 2022
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In a recent analysis by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, Linley Sanders, and Josh Boak for the Associated Press, Donald Trump emerges as a formidable contender in the Republican primary races, securing significant support among South Carolina Republicans who view him as the most viable candidate for the November election, capable of ensuring national safety and possessing the requisite mental acuity for the presidency. Despite these victories signaling his dominance within the Republican primaries, the broader appeal of Trump among general election voters is yet to be determined.
The AP VoteCast data illustrates that Trump has effectively rallied the GOP's core demographic, predominantly white, over the age of 50, and largely non-college educated, across Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. This demographic starkly contrasts with the more diverse electorate Trump needs to attract in the general election, especially to counter potential shifts towards candidates like former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose influence in the primaries has been modest but indicative of potential challenges for Trump.
Furthermore, the data indicates a significant portion of Trump's opposition within the Republican primaries consists of voters who have previously withdrawn their support. This shift, alongside the Republican party's reversal on key policy positions, embracing certain large-scale government initiatives and scaling back international commitments, underscores the evolving dynamics within the party.
The AP VoteCast surveys, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, encompassed 1,597 Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, 1,989 participants in New Hampshire's Republican primary, and 2,466 voters in South Carolina's Republican primary, offering a comprehensive glimpse into the current state of Republican voter sentiment.
The AP VoteCast data illustrates that Trump has effectively rallied the GOP's core demographic, predominantly white, over the age of 50, and largely non-college educated, across Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. This demographic starkly contrasts with the more diverse electorate Trump needs to attract in the general election, especially to counter potential shifts towards candidates like former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, whose influence in the primaries has been modest but indicative of potential challenges for Trump.
Furthermore, the data indicates a significant portion of Trump's opposition within the Republican primaries consists of voters who have previously withdrawn their support. This shift, alongside the Republican party's reversal on key policy positions, embracing certain large-scale government initiatives and scaling back international commitments, underscores the evolving dynamics within the party.
The AP VoteCast surveys, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, encompassed 1,597 Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, 1,989 participants in New Hampshire's Republican primary, and 2,466 voters in South Carolina's Republican primary, offering a comprehensive glimpse into the current state of Republican voter sentiment.