Can slow periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun cause abrupt climate changes?

[ding]

Can slow periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun cause abrupt climate changes?

From AR6, WGI
Slow periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun mainly cause variations in seasonal and latitudinal receipt of incoming solar radiation.

Sixth Assessment Report — IPCC

www.ipcc.ch

 

[ding]

Pro Tip: The answer is no.

 

[rampart]

Can slow periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun cause abrupt climate changes?

From AR6, WGI
Slow periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun mainly cause variations in seasonal and latitudinal receipt of incoming solar radiation.

Sixth Assessment Report — IPCC

www.ipcc.ch

yes certainly. and if that was what is happening we would know it. next.

 

[ding]

yes certainly. and if that was what is happening we would know it. next.

There's no physical evidence for it nor is there an explanation for how it could. But there is a shit load of physical evidence for the ocean causing abrupt climate changes. It's called thermohaline circulation and it's what is warming the Arctic which is a critical region for planetary climate changes.

 

[rampart]

There's no physical evidence for it nor is there an explanation for how it could. But there is a shit load of physical evidence for the ocean causing abrupt climate changes. It's called thermohaline circulation and it's what is warming the Arctic which is a critical region for planetary climate changes.

the oceans have a fairly tremendous heat capacity, do the oceans generate the heat transferred by the thermohalides or

is that absorbed from sunlight and atmospheric heat, then transferred to the arctic by the gulf stream and similar ocean currents?

 

[ding]

I thought Crick might show up and defend orbital cycles as a cause for climate change but I'm guessing even he knows how silly it is to argue how slow and periodic changes can't cause abrupt climate changes.

Especially since the IPCC reports contradict themselves regarding orbital forcing.

 

[ding]

the oceans have a fairly tremendous heat capacity, do the oceans generate the heat transferred by the thermophilies or

is that absorbed from sunlight and atmospheric heat, then transferred to the arctic by the gulf stream and similar ocean currents?

Short answer, yes. The AMOC circulates heat from the Atlantic to the Arctic. This heat warms the Arctic by 2C. Take that heat away and the planet will cool because the northern hemisphere will glaciate.

 

[justoffal]

Can slow periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun cause abrupt climate changes?

From AR6, WGI
Slow periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun mainly cause variations in seasonal and latitudinal receipt of incoming solar radiation.

Sixth Assessment Report — IPCC

www.ipcc.ch

Wait.... There is another factor here that I have brought up over and over again that continues to be rejected because nobody bothers to look at it seriously.

Not only is the Earth orbiting the Sun... The sun also orbits the center of the galaxy and as it does so moves our entire solar system through different parts of the galactic region where energy density may vary.

The Herculean path is 200 million years per cycle.... How the hell could we possibly know what to expect?

 

[ding]

the oceans have a fairly tremendous heat capacity, do the oceans generate the heat transferred by the thermophilies or

is that absorbed from sunlight and atmospheric heat, then transferred to the arctic by the gulf stream and similar ocean currents?

For the last 3 million years the planet has gone through 30 or so glacial cycles which consist of glacial periods and interglacial periods. In glacial periods, the northern hemisphere experiences extensive continental glaciation which lowers the temperature of the planet's atmosphere and oceans. In interglacial periods the northern hemisphere deglaciates (thaws) which raises the temperature of the planet's atmosphere and oceans.

So when the northern hemisphere glaciates the planet gets cold. When the planet deglaciates the planet gets warmer. We are presently in an interglacial period and that is the major reason temperatures are rising. CO2 has only added ~0.22C to 0.5C. The rest of the warming is due to heat being circulated from the Atlantic to the Arctic.

 

[toobfreak]

Can slow periodic changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun cause abrupt climate changes?

As someone very well versed in astronomy and planetary science, I have to say yes. This may run counter to common sense, but I believe the answer is yes, because much like biological systems which have a critical point of failure, though environmental changes may be gradual, there is often a point where these slow changes combine with other stressors to suddenly lead to a cascade failure or effect on biological systems.

Likewise, slow changes due to the Milankovitch cycles may on occasion line up with other stressors in plate tectonics, ocean currents, atmospheric changes, volcanic activity, etc., that I believe it can sometimes lead to cascade failure which brings on rapid effects that to us may seem to come out of nowhere.

One example just off the top of my head might be something like a gradual warming in the Spring may eventually cause the collapse of a snow shelf high up leading to a dramatic avalanche of snow and water crashing down even though the warming has been slow and gradual.

One example of this happening climatically may be the PETM at the end of the Mesozoic Era.

 

[Darkwind]

From our orbit?

No.

however, if you want to see abrupt climate change, just let us take a direct hit from a CME. ho boy, it's gonna get interesting.

 

[ding]

As someone very well versed in astronomy and planetary science, I have to say yes. This may run counter to common sense, but I believe the answer is yes, because much like biological systems which have a critical point of failure, though environmental changes may be gradual, there is often a point where these slow changes combine with other stressors to suddenly lead to a cascade failure or effect on biological systems.

Likewise, slow changes due to the Milankovitch cycles may on occasion line up with other stressors in plate tectonics, ocean currents, atmospheric changes, etc., that I believe it can sometimes lead to cascade failure which brings on rapid effects that to us may seem to come out of nowhere.

One example just off the top of my head might be something like a gradual warming in the Spring may eventually cause the collapse of a snow shelf high up leading to a dramatic avalanche of snow and water crashing down even though the warming has been slow and gradual.

That's entirely reasonable and how I see it as well. By themselves, no. I suspect that it has to do more with changes in wind patterns which affect ocean currents.

What should be obvious that whatever it is it is how it affects the Arctic. It's the northern hemisphere which has driven the planet's climate for the past 3 million years. The dominant climate feature has been the glaciation and deglaciation of the northern hemisphere.

 

[toobfreak]

That's entirely reasonable and how I see it as well. By themselves, no. I suspect that it has to do more with changes in wind patterns which affect ocean currents.

It should be noted that a building like the Tower of Pisa may stand for a thousand years leaning just a bit, but let it lean too far and suddenly it falls over.

Likewise, biological systems have their ebb and flow. Changes in oxygenation, competition with other life, etc., many things lead species or entire biology systems to have periods of strength and vulnerability. Then if something else comes along like a slight cooling or warming of the Earth, even though it may be slight and gradual, may be just the thing needed to push them over the edge.

Similarly, there was something like eleven major Ice Ages in the Earth, like the Huronian Ice Age, and many scientists postulate that these too were caused or exasperated by TIMING--- timing of ocean changes with atmospheric changes, etc., that then some other cycle came along where maybe two or all three earth orbital cycles LINED UP to push the Earth over the edge leading to major sudden changes like Snowball Earth.

Biology just as with climate, is a very complex andf dynamic system where many factors must be weighed in predicting how they will operate.

 

[rampart]

I thought Crick might show up and defend orbital cycles as a cause for climate change but I'm guessing even he knows how silly it is to argue how slow and periodic changes can't cause abrupt climate changes.

Especially since the IPCC reports contradict themselves regarding orbital forcing.

ii'll have to check the ipcc reports on that, but i'm fairly confident that energy in any frequency emitted by the sun or any other source follows an inverse square law in a homogenous mecdium such as space.

fluctuations certainly matter, but are generally slow and predictable (maybe if earth is knocked off course by an asteroid or jet propelled by a supervolcano eruption ....)

 

[ding]

It should be noted that a building like the Tower of Pisa may stand for a thousand years leaning just a bit, but let it lean too far and suddenly it falls over.

Likewise, biological systems have their ebb and flow. Changes in oxygenation, competition with other life, etc., many things lead species or entire biology systems to have periods of strength and vulnerability. Then if something else comes along like a slight cooling or warming of the Earth, even though it may be slight and gradual, may be just the thing needed to push them over the edge.

Similarly, there was something like eleven major Ice Ages in the Earth, like the Huronian Ice Age, and many scientists postulate that these too were caused or exasperated by TIMING--- timing of ocean changes with atmospheric changes, etc., that then some other cycle came along where maybe two or all three earth orbital cycles LINED UP to push the Earth over the edge leading to major sudden changes like Snowball Earth.

Biology just as with climate, is a very complex andf dynamic system where many factors must be weighed in predicting how they will operate.

True but the dominant climate feature of today's landmass configuration and resulting ocean currents is glaciation of the northern hemisphere and deglaciation of the northern hemisphere which are marked by abrupt climate changes.

When the northern hemisphere glaciates the ocean and the atmosphere cool. When the northern hemisphere deglaciates the ocean and the atmosphere warm. So it shouldn't be surprising that the planet is warming. AGW argues there is no natural warming. None. Zero. Nada. That it must all be due to 120 ppm of CO2. That's bullshit.

 

[sparky]

Likewise, biological systems have their ebb and flow. Changes in oxygenation, competition with other life, etc., many things lead species or entire biology systems to have periods of strength and vulnerability. Then if something else comes along like a slight cooling or warming of the Earth, even though it may be slight and gradual, may be just the thing needed to push them over the edge.

grand analogy Toob....

i'm told that many subtleties may go un noted, but over time every one of them affects everything else

~S~

 

[ding]

ii'll have to check the ipcc reports on that, but i'm fairly confident that energy in any frequency emitted by the sun or any other source follows an inverse square law in a homogenous mecdium such as space.

fluctuations certainly matter, but are generally slow and predictable (maybe if earth is knocked off course by an asteroid or jet propelled by a supervolcano eruption ....)

Our sun is remarkably constant compared to similar stars.

SWS - The Sun and Solar Activity - The Solar Constant

 

[rampart]

Our sun is remarkably constant compared to similar stars.

SWS - The Sun and Solar Activity - The Solar Constant

in the distant past, as a binary with now dead jupiter, the electromagnetic picture may be as complicated as gravity remains.

jupiter still is a net emitter of energy. maybe its more complicated than i think. :

 

[toobfreak]

grand analogy Toob....i'm told that many subtleties may go un noted, but over time every one of them affects everything else

Like I said, climate and life are just so complex because everything is interdependent--- changes in oxygenation, competition with other life, etc., many things lead species or entire biology systems to have periods of strength and vulnerability. Maybe those changes drive a plant species to become extinct, which some small critter depends on for food, then their numbers drop leading to a loss of food for a keystone animal.

Keystone lifeforms are those on which a habitat depend. Take them out and the entire eco-structure of the region collapse--- sometimes their loss leads to some other animal taking over as predator (like the Lion fish) and they throw the entire ecosystem out of balance to the point of collapse.

These systems are so complex that it is usually near impossible to predict the effects in advance. Instead, usually scientists note the effect after the fact then try to backtrack processes to figure out where things went wrong.

So do I believe the Earth is in eminent peril? Yes and no. I believe that yes, climate is changing and yes we have helped change it, but are we headed for a holocaust tomorrow? No, things will change, people will change, climate will change--- in the end, all change is caused by imbalance seeking to restore balance, and this time, part of the imbalance may be mankind's combined effect on the planet--- not because we need more green technology, but because too many people are simply requiring too much impact on our limited resources.

The good news is that the Earth fixes everything, even if that fix involves making the planet less habitable to people to reduce global population or inserting some destructive mass viral pandemic. In the end, Earth will succeed and life will go on, but I believe the Earth would be better off if our population were more like 2 billion instead of 9 billion.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

The Herculean path is 200 million years per cycle.... How the hell could we possibly know what to expect?

Because we can measure the incoming energy. We can measure surface and ocean temperatures. We can measure when more of that incoming energy is being trapped by the oceans and atmosphere than at a past time.

Every time you come up with a question, your first thought should be "the experts thought of that question before I had breakfast this.morning".

Then, go look up their answers to the question.