Oddball
Unobtanium Member
RealClearPolitics - 2018 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate 2018
Here's my best guess...
Heitcamp gets crushed in North Dakota: +1.
McCaskill is dead in the water and sinking fast: +1.
Beto has no chance in Texas against Cruz: Hold.
Tennessee has been trending toward Blackburn. Will likely pick up coat tails from the governor's race, where the repub is ahead by double digits. I bet she wins: +1.
Nelson's lead in Florida is within the margin of error and he's below 50% in support. This usually favors the challenger. I'll go with Scott in a squeaker. +1.
Indiana has a 3rd candidate and Donnely luckily keeps his seat: Hold.
That leaves Arizona, Montana, and Nevada. All are within the margin of error. Law of averages says GOP gets one of those seats: +1.
None of that takes into account the shenanigans of the democrats over the last couple weeks...If any of those toss-ups break sharply, it won't be in favor of them.
My ain't-gonna-bet-on-it guess is that the GOP picks up 5 seats.
Here's my best guess...
Heitcamp gets crushed in North Dakota: +1.
McCaskill is dead in the water and sinking fast: +1.
Beto has no chance in Texas against Cruz: Hold.
Tennessee has been trending toward Blackburn. Will likely pick up coat tails from the governor's race, where the repub is ahead by double digits. I bet she wins: +1.
Nelson's lead in Florida is within the margin of error and he's below 50% in support. This usually favors the challenger. I'll go with Scott in a squeaker. +1.
Indiana has a 3rd candidate and Donnely luckily keeps his seat: Hold.
That leaves Arizona, Montana, and Nevada. All are within the margin of error. Law of averages says GOP gets one of those seats: +1.
None of that takes into account the shenanigans of the democrats over the last couple weeks...If any of those toss-ups break sharply, it won't be in favor of them.
My ain't-gonna-bet-on-it guess is that the GOP picks up 5 seats.