Climatologists Got It Wrong with El Niño

[Billy_Bob]

The ship of fools found out what happens when the wind blows the sea ice into pack ice..

 

[Weatherman2020]

View attachment 65511
The ship of fools found out what happens when the wind blows the sea ice into pack ice..

Notice the cultists refuse to acknowledge how poorly the climate models handled El Niño?

 

[Old Rocks]

UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for Feb. 2016: +0.83 deg. C (new record) | Roy Spencer, PhD.

Really?

 

[Billy_Bob]

UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for Feb. 2016: +0.83 deg. C (new record) | Roy Spencer, PhD.

Really?

New record in satellite history.. So it was the hottest February in the last 37 years.. And the earth is how old?

It's funny to see you use this after telling us that satellites are unreliable and untrustworthy... But its OK if it supports your agenda...

The stupidity, IT BURNS!

 

[RollingThunder]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?

Show us such a prediction that is not simply a review of the effects of past el Nino events.

Polar ice caps have disappeared, right?

The Polar ice in the Arctic is, in fact, rapidly diminishing. It has not "disappeared" yet. but then, no scientist ever said that the Arctic ice would all be gone by now, so your post is just another stupid strawman argument.

...and by "rapidly diminishing" you mean you're just making it all up and calling NASA a bunch of liars for saying Antarctica ice is growing

Ahhhhh, CrazyFruitcake, you are such a clueless moron!

Arctic ice, as I said, IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. By every available measurement, the Arctic ice cap is currently rapidly shrinking in extent and volume, and Greenland is losing massive amounts of ice from its ice sheets.

As far as the Antarctic ice goes....

The fact is, no scientist ever said that the Antarctic ice would all be gone by now either, so your post - "Polar ice caps have disappeared, right?" - is just another really stupid denier cult strawman argument.

There have been a number of studies of the state of the Antarctic ice sheets. One recent NASA study analyzed satellite altimetry data that only ran up through 2008 and found that Antarctica appeared to be gaining slightly more ice in the interior from increased snowfall than the rather large amounts it was losing at the edges. All of the other studies that have been done in the last two decades however indicate that Antarctica is, on the whole, losing ice mass. That includes another recent NASA study, that analyzed gravity field measurements from the GRACE satellites, and included much more recently observed data, which concluded both that Antarctica is indeed losing ice mass, the rate of ice mass loss since 2008 has greatly increased - throwing into doubt the results of the altimetry based study with no data since 2008.

Right on nominal.

View attachment 65407

Nope! In the real world, not your denier cult fantasyland, Arctic sea ice has reached a record breaking low extent and volume.You are so stupid, you try to deceive people with a graph that stops in 2015 and doesn't include any data from 2016. The last record low Arctic sea ice extent happened in 2012. So far this year, 2016, Arctic sea ice extent is tracking well below the 2012 levels, and is currently more than two standard deviations from the 1981-2010 average.

Last year, in 2015, this happened:
"On February 25, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent appeared to have reached its annual maximum extent, marking the beginning of the sea ice melt season. This year’s maximum extent not only occurred early; it is also the lowest in the satellite record." - NSIDC

This year:
Annual winter growth of Arctic sea ice stalls early
Alaska Dispatch News
Yereth Rosen
February 23, 2016
Normally in the Arctic, the ocean water keeps freezing through the entire winter, creating ice that reaches its maximum extent just before the melt starts in the spring.

Not so this year.

As of Tuesday, sea ice had stopped growing for two weeks. Sea ice extent -- the areas with at least 15 percent ice coverage -- hit a winter maximum of 14.214 million square kilometers (5.488 million square miles) on Feb. 9, and has stalled since, according to daily reports from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.

If there is no more growth, the Feb. 9 total extent would be a double record that would mean an unprecedented head start on the annual melt season that runs until fall.

“If this was the maximum in sea ice extent, it would be the earliest that we’ve ever seen and it would also be the lowest maximum that we’ve ever seen, by a long shot, actually,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “If this was the maximum, that would be pretty big in terms of what is happening in the Arctic.”

Up to now, the lowest winter ice-extent maximum in the satellite record dating back to 1979 was hit last year, when ice extent reached 14.54 million square kilometers (5.614 million square miles) on Feb. 25, according to NSIDC records. The earliest seasonal winter maximum was reached in 1996, when sea ice hit its peak extent on Feb. 24 of that year, according to the center’s records. Normally, ice extent reaches its maximum in early or mid-March; between 1981 and 2010, the average maximum date was March 12.
***

OK, let's use your chart. Within 2 standard deviations, which means it's within normal range. Let's us L know when it falls out of 3 standard deviations.

Actually, numbnuts, I said (and Arctic ice extent is) "more than two standard deviations from the 1981-2010 average", not 'within'. Liar!

And sure, you blind denier cult retard, ignore all of the rest of the evidence there that thoroughly debunks your idiot claim that the Arctic ice is "right on nominal".

It's your graph, and it shows March right at 2 Standard Deviations. And well within 3, which means a normal distribution.

It is the National Snow and Ice Data Center's graph, moron!

It shows the later part of February at, very obviously, a little below Two Standard Deviations, not "at", you pitiful liar.

And what that means, you scientific illiterate, is that current ice extents are, at least, lower than and somewhat outside and beyond 95% of all of the observations of Arctic sea ice extent ever taken at this time of the year. Which means, moron, that the current ice extent is just the opposite of "a normal distribution."

Keep grasping, this is funny.

Keep getting more deranged and divorced from reality, you're hilarious!

View attachment 65511
The ship of fools found out what happens when the wind blows the sea ice into pack ice..

Notice the cultists refuse to acknowledge how poorly the climate models handled El Niño?

Nope!

What everyone noticed is that you don't know what you are talking about. You parrot some idiotic bogus nonsense off of some denier cult blog about how 'climate models supposedly didn't predict something (that turned out to be weather) accurately enough, so therefore all climate models are worthless'.....then your twaddle gets thoroughly debunked....California is getting lots of rain, and the snowpack is currently 93% of normal, with almost three months of rainy season to go.....the climate center did not make specific predictions about the specific weather conditions that would stem from the El Nino.....trying to idiotically confuse weather prediction with the very different climate prediction is a propaganda trick of your denier cult.....as a Dean of Environmental Science at Duke University explained very clearly....but you, WitheredMan, are so stupid and brainwashed, you still desperately cling to your retarded and completely debunked denier cult myths. Good little cultist!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for Feb. 2016: +0.83 deg. C (new record) | Roy Spencer, PhD.

Really?

Wider and wider swings? Nope

Overall Warming? Nope

 

[jc456]

UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for Feb. 2016: +0.83 deg. C (new record) | Roy Spencer, PhD.

Really?

Wider and wider swings? Nope

Overall Warming? Nope

he's the poster that thinks less LWR means more heat. And these fools want to discuss science and physics. I tell you Frank, another day another split gut.

 

[Uncensored2008]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?

???

We are at 113% of normal rain for the year and expecting heavy rain starting this weekend.

My concern is that this is so late in the season that it won't be cold enough to build the snow pack.

 

[jc456]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?

???

We are at 113% of normal rain for the year and expecting heavy rain starting this weekend.

My concern is that this is so late in the season that it won't be cold enough to build the snow pack.

what city are you talking about? I'm looking at the weather map today and the dude was spot on.

Washington State and Oregon getting pounded. don't see any rain in CA.

 

[RollingThunder]

View attachment 65511
The ship of fools found out what happens when the wind blows the sea ice into pack ice..

As I said earlier on a different thread when some other nutjob tried pushing the same idiotic propaganda meme....

"Guess you got duped again by the denier cult propaganda pushers, you poor demented denier dingbat.

DEBUNKED! Conservatives Claim Stuck Antarctic Ice Ship Proves ‘Global Warming Hoax’

Too bad you probably have neither the balls to actually read this debunking of your crackpot myths, nor the brains to comprehend the science......but hey, give it a shot, numbnuts....all you've got to lose are your ignorance and your delusions..."

 

[Uncensored2008]

what city are you talking about? I'm looking at the weather map today and the dude was spot on.

Washington State and Oregon getting pounded. don't see any rain in CA.

Yorba Linda Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for CA 92886


That said, El Nino is NOT global warming and has nothing to do with that fraud.

 

[Weatherman2020]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?

Show us such a prediction that is not simply a review of the effects of past el Nino events.

Polar ice caps have disappeared, right?

The Polar ice in the Arctic is, in fact, rapidly diminishing. It has not "disappeared" yet. but then, no scientist ever said that the Arctic ice would all be gone by now, so your post is just another stupid strawman argument.

...and by "rapidly diminishing" you mean you're just making it all up and calling NASA a bunch of liars for saying Antarctica ice is growing

Ahhhhh, CrazyFruitcake, you are such a clueless moron!

Arctic ice, as I said, IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. By every available measurement, the Arctic ice cap is currently rapidly shrinking in extent and volume, and Greenland is losing massive amounts of ice from its ice sheets.

As far as the Antarctic ice goes....

The fact is, no scientist ever said that the Antarctic ice would all be gone by now either, so your post - "Polar ice caps have disappeared, right?" - is just another really stupid denier cult strawman argument.

There have been a number of studies of the state of the Antarctic ice sheets. One recent NASA study analyzed satellite altimetry data that only ran up through 2008 and found that Antarctica appeared to be gaining slightly more ice in the interior from increased snowfall than the rather large amounts it was losing at the edges. All of the other studies that have been done in the last two decades however indicate that Antarctica is, on the whole, losing ice mass. That includes another recent NASA study, that analyzed gravity field measurements from the GRACE satellites, and included much more recently observed data, which concluded both that Antarctica is indeed losing ice mass, the rate of ice mass loss since 2008 has greatly increased - throwing into doubt the results of the altimetry based study with no data since 2008.

Right on nominal.

View attachment 65407

Nope! In the real world, not your denier cult fantasyland, Arctic sea ice has reached a record breaking low extent and volume.You are so stupid, you try to deceive people with a graph that stops in 2015 and doesn't include any data from 2016. The last record low Arctic sea ice extent happened in 2012. So far this year, 2016, Arctic sea ice extent is tracking well below the 2012 levels, and is currently more than two standard deviations from the 1981-2010 average.

Last year, in 2015, this happened:
"On February 25, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent appeared to have reached its annual maximum extent, marking the beginning of the sea ice melt season. This year’s maximum extent not only occurred early; it is also the lowest in the satellite record." - NSIDC

This year:
Annual winter growth of Arctic sea ice stalls early
Alaska Dispatch News
Yereth Rosen
February 23, 2016
Normally in the Arctic, the ocean water keeps freezing through the entire winter, creating ice that reaches its maximum extent just before the melt starts in the spring.

Not so this year.

As of Tuesday, sea ice had stopped growing for two weeks. Sea ice extent -- the areas with at least 15 percent ice coverage -- hit a winter maximum of 14.214 million square kilometers (5.488 million square miles) on Feb. 9, and has stalled since, according to daily reports from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.

If there is no more growth, the Feb. 9 total extent would be a double record that would mean an unprecedented head start on the annual melt season that runs until fall.

“If this was the maximum in sea ice extent, it would be the earliest that we’ve ever seen and it would also be the lowest maximum that we’ve ever seen, by a long shot, actually,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “If this was the maximum, that would be pretty big in terms of what is happening in the Arctic.”

Up to now, the lowest winter ice-extent maximum in the satellite record dating back to 1979 was hit last year, when ice extent reached 14.54 million square kilometers (5.614 million square miles) on Feb. 25, according to NSIDC records. The earliest seasonal winter maximum was reached in 1996, when sea ice hit its peak extent on Feb. 24 of that year, according to the center’s records. Normally, ice extent reaches its maximum in early or mid-March; between 1981 and 2010, the average maximum date was March 12.
***

OK, let's use your chart. Within 2 standard deviations, which means it's within normal range. Let's us L know when it falls out of 3 standard deviations.

Actually, numbnuts, I said (and Arctic ice extent is) "more than two standard deviations from the 1981-2010 average", not 'within'. Liar!

And sure, you blind denier cult retard, ignore all of the rest of the evidence there that thoroughly debunks your idiot claim that the Arctic ice is "right on nominal".

It's your graph, and it shows March right at 2 Standard Deviations. And well within 3, which means a normal distribution.

It is the National Snow and Ice Data Center's graph, moron!

It shows the later part of February at, very obviously, a little below Two Standard Deviations, not "at", you pitiful liar.

And what that means, you scientific illiterate, is that current ice extents are, at least, lower than and somewhat outside and beyond 95% of all of the observations of Arctic sea ice extent ever taken at this time of the year. Which means, moron, that the current ice extent is just the opposite of "a normal distribution."

Keep grasping, this is funny.

Keep getting more deranged and divorced from reality, you're hilarious!

View attachment 65511
The ship of fools found out what happens when the wind blows the sea ice into pack ice..

Notice the cultists refuse to acknowledge how poorly the climate models handled El Niño?

Nope!

What everyone noticed is that you don't know what you are talking about. You parrot some idiotic bogus nonsense off of some denier cult blog about how 'climate models supposedly didn't predict something (that turned out to be weather) accurately enough, so therefore all climate models are worthless'.....then your twaddle gets thoroughly debunked....California is getting lots of rain, and the snowpack is currently 93% of normal, with almost three months of rainy season to go.....the climate center did not make specific predictions about the specific weather conditions that would stem from the El Nino.....trying to idiotically confuse weather prediction with the very different climate prediction is a propaganda trick of your denier cult.....as a Dean of Environmental Science at Duke University explained very clearly....but you, WitheredMan, are so stupid and brainwashed, you still desperately cling to your retarded and completely debunked denier cult myths. Good little cultist!

Which simply validates the "experts" are liars and you're an ignorant stooge parroting the lies.

You cultists cherry picking dates and call them the nominal is so stupid only you could fall for it.

 

[jc456]

what city are you talking about? I'm looking at the weather map today and the dude was spot on.

Washington State and Oregon getting pounded. don't see any rain in CA.

Yorba Linda Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for CA 92886


That said, El Nino is NOT global warming and has nothing to do with that fraud.

BTW, it has been this pattern for over 30+ days.

 

[Weatherman2020]

what city are you talking about? I'm looking at the weather map today and the dude was spot on.

Washington State and Oregon getting pounded. don't see any rain in CA.

Yorba Linda Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for CA 92886


That said, El Nino is NOT global warming and has nothing to do with that fraud.

You are wrong. Yorba Linda is far below average as is most of Calif.

 

[Uncensored2008]

what city are you talking about? I'm looking at the weather map today and the dude was spot on.

Washington State and Oregon getting pounded. don't see any rain in CA.

Yorba Linda Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for CA 92886


That said, El Nino is NOT global warming and has nothing to do with that fraud.

You are wrong. Yorba Linda is far below average as is most of Calif.
View attachment 65789

{Readings of the Sierra Nevada snowpack on Tuesday showed water content statewide was 18.7 inches, or 115% of the historical average for that date, according to the California Department of Water Resources.}

California's snowpack is deepest in five years after recent storms

 

[Weatherman2020]

what city are you talking about? I'm looking at the weather map today and the dude was spot on.

Washington State and Oregon getting pounded. don't see any rain in CA.

Yorba Linda Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for CA 92886


That said, El Nino is NOT global warming and has nothing to do with that fraud.

You are wrong. Yorba Linda is far below average as is most of Calif.
View attachment 65789

{Readings of the Sierra Nevada snowpack on Tuesday showed water content statewide was 18.7 inches, or 115% of the historical average for that date, according to the California Department of Water Resources.}

California's snowpack is deepest in five years after recent storms

Your article is old. Sierra snowpack is currently at 105% as of Tuesday. Which means it's just an average year, not the El Niño above well average probability given last year.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Your article is old. Sierra snowpack is currently at 105% as of Tuesday. Which means it's just an average year, not the El Niño above well average probability given last year.

As I said, we are in for some HEAVY rain starting this weekend. The issue, as I said previously, is that it may be too warm to build the snow pack. And California is WAY too stupid to capture runoff.

 

[jc456]

Your article is old. Sierra snowpack is currently at 105% as of Tuesday. Which means it's just an average year, not the El Niño above well average probability given last year.

As I said, we are in for some HEAVY rain starting this weekend. The issue, as I said previously, is that it may be too warm to build the snow pack. And California is WAY too stupid to capture runoff.

well we'll see, but the weather channel forecast isn't saying that.

You are right that CA is way too stupid to capture runoff.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Your article is old. Sierra snowpack is currently at 105% as of Tuesday. Which means it's just an average year, not the El Niño above well average probability given last year.

As I said, we are in for some HEAVY rain starting this weekend. The issue, as I said previously, is that it may be too warm to build the snow pack. And California is WAY too stupid to capture runoff.

Storms are typical for March, and the two storms won't even get us a typical month.

Calif is too busy spending billions on a train to nowhere than build water infrastructure.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Your article is old. Sierra snowpack is currently at 105% as of Tuesday. Which means it's just an average year, not the El Niño above well average probability given last year.

As I said, we are in for some HEAVY rain starting this weekend. The issue, as I said previously, is that it may be too warm to build the snow pack. And California is WAY too stupid to capture runoff.

And BTW - you'll be lucky to get 2" of rain in the next week. Then more dry Santa Anas.