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It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
View attachment 65093Leveled off?The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.
If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?
In their defense they never truly made a prediction. Everything they ever say is always hedged with the magic words "might", "could" and "possibly". Climatologists stopped making real predictions years and years ago when the temperature leveled off while the CO2 kept rising.
Like all good charlatans they began using qualifiers with their "predictions" thus no matter what happened they would claim they predicted it.
NASA, NOAA Analyses Reveal Record-Shattering Global Temperatures
Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Globally-averaged temperatures in 2015 shattered the previous mark set in 2014 by 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit (0.13 Celsius). Only once before, in 1998, has the new record been greater than the old record by this much.
The 2015 temperatures continue a long-term warming trend, according to analyses by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (GISTEMP). NOAA scientists concur with the finding that 2015 was the warmest year on record based on separate, independent analyses of the data. Because weather station locations and measurements change over time, there is some uncertainty in the individual values in the GISTEMP index. Taking this into account, NASA analysis estimates 2015 was the warmest year with 94 percent certainty.
“Climate change is the challenge of our generation, and NASA’s vital work on this important issue affects every person on Earth,” said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. “Today’s announcement not only underscores how critical NASA’s Earth observation program is, it is a key data point that should make policy makers stand up and take notice - now is the time to act on climate.”
The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1.0 degree Celsius) since the late-19th century, a change largely driven by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere.
Ooooooh, yet more "shattered" records. Funny when they claim 58 degrees and change are some new record when they made the exact same claim back in 1998 and then the temp was 62 degrees and change. So, which is bigger? 62 or 58?
Both claims originated from NOAA, and both are "OFFICIAL" though the new claim is a true turd based on the 1998 claim.....
I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
We don't need you spamming the thread with your regurgitated leftist lies. The fact remains the Climate Center said there was a high likelihood of above average precipitation in SoCal, and what occurred is hot, extremely dry conditions.Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Why is it every source old crock posts up is a hard left wing scaremonger source? Never is there evidence or science involved in his charades of left wing sources. Just like Rolling blunder boy you guys never do real science or read the supporting evidence for your posts.
Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Your usual ignorant denier cult drivel.....utterly meaningless...your fraudulent OP has been thoroughly debunked but you're too stupid and brainwashed to realize that.We don't need you spamming the thread with your regurgitated leftist lies. The fact remains the Climate Center said there was a high likelihood of above average precipitation in SoCal, and what occurred is hot, extremely dry conditions.
The models were wrong, just months in advance. Man does not have a remote idea of what all of the variables in forecasting need to be, let alone how they work together.
Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
The problem that you have oh font challenged moron is that history tells us that you and your fear mongering twits are full of poo. Let us know when the globe see's another one of these events which dumped more water in 40 days than ANY of your so called big storms and by orders of magnitude.
Debunked? Climate Prediction Center did not state a high probability of above average precipitation for SoCal this winter and SoCal has not expirenced extremely low humidity conditions instead?Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Your usual ignorant denier cult drivel.....utterly meaningless...your fraudulent OP has been thoroughly debunked but you're too stupid and brainwashed to realize that.We don't need you spamming the thread with your regurgitated leftist lies. The fact remains the Climate Center said there was a high likelihood of above average precipitation in SoCal, and what occurred is hot, extremely dry conditions.
The models were wrong, just months in advance. Man does not have a remote idea of what all of the variables in forecasting need to be, let alone how they work together.
Yep, dry conditions in the West.Here is the prior seasonal drought assessment
Discussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook
temperature and precipitation outlooks for March 2016 and March-May 2016, various short- and medium-range forecastsand models such as the forecast 5-day and 7-day precipitation totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts, the NAEFS precipitation outlooks, the soil moisture tools based on the Constructed Analog on Soil Moisture (CAS), dynamical models (CFSv2, NMME, IRI, and IMME), the 384-hour total precipitation forecasts from several runs of the GFS, the four-month Palmer drought termination and amelioration probabilities, climatology, and initial conditions. El Niño composites were also considered, although its influence should be decreasing as spring progresses.
In the Northeast, remaining areas of drought should be resolved by the end of May. Relative wetness in the short term and low confidence depicted in the March-May outlooks favors improvement given the effectiveness of precipitation recharge this time of year, particularly if it increases snowpack.
Forecast confidence for the Northeast is low.
The forecast for the new areas of drought in Texas basically hinges on how much March-May precipitation typically contributes to the annual total. Forecasts call for dry weather through the end of February, and enhanced odds for above-normal precipitation thereafter. However, persistence is anticipated in southern Texas, where March-May is a relatively dry time of year; however, drought removal is expected by the end of May in central Texas, where March-May climatology is wetter.
Forecast confidence for Texas is moderate.
The small area of drought in North Dakota is expected to persist. Dry conditions should dominate through the last half of February while neither dry nor wet conditions are favored during spring. The wetter time of year is starting to get underway in late spring, but uncertainty in the long term and dryness in the short term favor a continuation of present conditions.
Forecast confidence for the Northern Plains is moderate.
In the northern High Plains and adjacent Rockies, odds favor wetter than normal weather in the southern reaches of the region with no discernable tilt of the odds elsewhere. The forecast is based on spring being a wet time of year in the region, bringing better chances for improvement than deterioration.
Forecast confidence for the northern High Plains is low to moderate.
With subnormal precipitation expected until March, the forecast across the West hinges on the March-May outlook. Improvement is forecast for areas where odds favor spring wetness, and persistence where either subnormal precipitation is favored or neither precipitation extreme seems more likely. The exception to this rule is across Arizona, southernmost Nevada, and southern California. Despite enhanced probabilities of wetter than normal spring conditions in these regions, March-May typically contributes only about 15 percent of the annual precipitation total, which has been particularly true for the past 15 years. Even above normal precipitation would likely be insufficient to change drought conditions in the region.
Forecast confidence for The West is generally high, but moderate across the extreme to exceptional drought areas in California, where drought may require substantially more precipitation than normal to significantly improve.
El Niño conditions favor a wetter than average dry season across Puerto Rico, but this has not been the case in drought areas for the last 3 months. Precipitation increases markedly as spring progresses, with more than half of the seasonal total usually falling during May. While the later spring time scale is uncertain to say the least, the entrenched nature of the drought implies that a substantially wetter than normal May would be necessary to bring significant improvement, so persistence is forecast. Still, El Niño enhances the likelihood of a wetter than normal May, leading to reduced confidence in the forecast.
Forecast confidence for Puerto Rico is low.
El Niño conditions also favor continued dryness across most of Hawaii, so persistence or deterioration, including substantial drought expansion, is expected. Only some windward areas are expected to remain out of drought by the end of May.
Forecast confidence for Hawaii is high in areas of existing drought and moderate in areas of expected drought expansion, which are always tough to pinpoint in seasonal forecasts.
Debunked?
If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?
WEATHER PREDICTION, CLIMATE PREDICTION. WHATS THE DIFF?
IF SCIENTISTS CANT ACCURATELY PREDICT THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK OR THE WEEK AFTER, HOW CAN THEY PREDICT THE CLIMATE IN 10 OR 20 YEARS? GOOD QUESTION. THE ANSWER LIES IN APPLES AND ORANGES.
Popular Science
By Dr. Bill Chameidesu
March 20, 2009
Scientifically speaking, the difference between weather prediction and climate prediction is the difference between an "initial value problem" and a "boundary value problem." Let's see if I can explain in English.
While weather and climate both focus on temperature, wind, cloudiness, rain or snow, the way these properties are used is quite different. The National Center for Atmospheric Research defines the two like so:
"Weather is the mix of events that happen each day in our atmosphere."
"Climate is the average weather pattern in a place over many years."
When Time and Place Are Critical
When you want to know the weather, time and place are critical. You are interested in what is going to happen in the immediate future (not sometime in the next month or two) and in your vicinity (not 1000 miles away).
If the TV weather person announced it was going to rain somewhere in your state sometime next month, I suspect you'd find that prediction a little less than satisfactory. But the latter is essentially what a climate prediction is, and the methodology to arrive at it is fundamentally different from predicting the weather.
What Goes into Weather Predictions
Imagine you are a center fielder on a baseball team. The batter hits a fly ball your way and it's your job to catch it. To do so, you need to figure where in center field the ball is headed and when it's going to get there.
If you're a good outfielder, a crack computer in your brain gathers up essential data -- like the speed of the bat as it hits the ball, the sound of the impact, and the ball's initial direction -- and in a split second calculates the ball's trajectory.
But to do this well, it's essential that the input into your computer what scientists would call the initial values is complete and accurate. If the glare of the sun or stadium lights obscure your view of the ball's initial flight, your ability to accurately predict where the ball is going and when it will get there is impaired.
Predicting the weather is similarly dependent on the initial values you specify in the computer model used to make the prediction. These initial conditions include temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation rates everywhere in your model essentially everywhere in the atmosphere. The values for these parameters can't be made up; they must come from real data. Today these data come from the global meteorological network run by countries around the world and largely coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization. This network includes surface meteorological stations, balloon measurements, shipboard measurements, and space-borne platforms.
Despite its very impressive size, the network is limited; we can only make meteorological measurements in so many locations and these measurements are not perfectly accurate. Thus, the initial conditions input into our weather models are imperfect, and so our weather predictions are inaccurate -- and would be even if our understanding of the physics of the weather were perfect.
Because the effects of imperfect initial conditions on weather simulations tend to grow, the longer the weather model is run into the future, the less accurate the prediction. Predictions of the weather just a week or two in advance, let alone decades, become highly problematic.
What Goes into Climate Predictions
Less concerned with exact time and place, predicting climate focuses on spatially and temporally averaged conditions.
Unlike the earlier example of the outfielder who must know exactly where the ball is heading and when it will get there, climate prediction is more akin to predicting at the beginning of the game how many times a ball will be hit to center field sometime in the first three innings. Initial conditions like the speed of the bat or direction of the ball as it leaves the first batter's bat are not going to help very much. The critical factors are the speed and direction of the wind, the properties of the ball and the bat, the strength of the pitcher and the batters, and the dimensions of the field factors that scientists call boundary conditions.
So while predicting the weather depends critically on getting the initial state of the atmosphere right, predicting the climate does not. Which is not to say that climate prediction is easy. It's not.
Predicting climate accurately depends on getting a host of those boundary conditions correct, many of which relate to the atmosphere's energy. They include the amount and strength of sunlight reaching the Earth, the reflectivity of the Earth's surface, the movement of heat in the oceans, and the opacity of the atmosphere to terrestrial radiation as a result of greenhouse gases. And for this reason, getting long-term, accurate observations of, for example, the variations in the sun's output of energy over time is critical for understanding past climate change. Uncertainties in how the sun's output will change in the coming decades limits our ability to predict future climate with complete confidence. However, such decadal variations in the sun's output are irrelevant to predicting tomorrow's weather.
There are other fundamental differences between weather and climate predictions. Some of these relate to mechanisms. For example, accurate weather predictions require a good simulation of the processes that lead to precipitation from a cloud since whether or not it rains at a specific location on a specific day is relevant. For climate predictions, the specifics of the cloud-to-rain process are less important. Far more important is getting right the reflective properties of the cloud since these affect the planet's long-term energy budget. Again, both of these inputs present difficult but different challenges.
And that's why comparing the limitations of weather predictions with those of climate predictions is a little or a lot like comparing apples and oranges.
Bill Chameides
Dean, Duke University
Nicholas School of the Environment | www.TheGreenGrok.com
Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Why is it every source old crock posts up is a hard left wing scaremonger source? Never is there evidence or science involved in his charades of left wing sources. Just like Rolling blunder boy you guys never do real science or read the supporting evidence for your posts.
ROTFLMFAO......
Riiiiight, Boober, there's obviously no science involved with the National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather
NOAA
Or the article by Dr. William Chameides - Professor of the Environment, and Dean of the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences at Duke University.
WEATHER PREDICTION, CLIMATE PREDICTION. WHATS THE DIFF?
Or
El Nino-driven storm blasts California, southwestern US with rain and snow
AccuWeather
By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
January 31, 2016
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
For the umpteenth time....you are a retarded troll, WallEyed!For the umpteenth time..... computer models are not data. Learn something and take a real science class sometime so you can understand just how moronic you truly are.
Silly senile old ass, temperature records are not computer models. Page 29 and 30,Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Why is it every source old crock posts up is a hard left wing scaremonger source? Never is there evidence or science involved in his charades of left wing sources. Just like Rolling blunder boy you guys never do real science or read the supporting evidence for your posts.
ROTFLMFAO......
Riiiiight, Boober, there's obviously no science involved with the National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather
NOAA
Or the article by Dr. William Chameides - Professor of the Environment, and Dean of the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences at Duke University.
WEATHER PREDICTION, CLIMATE PREDICTION. WHATS THE DIFF?
Or
El Nino-driven storm blasts California, southwestern US with rain and snow
AccuWeather
By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
January 31, 2016
For the umpteenth time..... computer models are not data. Learn something and take a real science class sometime so you can understand just how moronic you truly are.
Your link has no Temperatures nor Temperature records Old Crock! That should be as easy as PIE to see.Silly senile old ass, temperature records are not computer models. Page 29 and 30,Well...it's pretty hard to see the truth when you insist on maintaining the usual denier cult position on all these scientific facts....(BTW, don't you ever get a bit uncomfortable?)I am not seeing this record of which they keep spewing forth...
Nope. Not even close to the wild weather we were experiencing in the 1950's and before. This last half century is shaping up to be the most stable in recorded history. You should read some history sometime and you will be amazed at how much they have lied to you.It's getting warmer and dryer and more extreme than even they predicted. Wowza!
The WallEyedRetard's usual delusional insanity....based on some demented and very fraudulent denier cult myths.....and, of course, maintained by his strict adherence to the standard denier cult position on AGW/CC that was pictured earlier....LOLOLOL....
Here's how the "last half century" shapes up in the real world of science....from the:
National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Introduction
As the world has warmed, that warming has triggered many other changes to the Earth’s climate. Changes in extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, are the primary way that most people experience climate change. Human-induced climate change has already increased the number and strength of some of these extreme events. Over the last 50 years, much of the U.S. has seen increases in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heavy downpours, and in some regions, severe floods and droughts.
And...
EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Thousands of record-breaking weather events worldwide bolster long-term trends of increasing heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and wildfires. A combination of observed trends, theoretical understanding of the climate system, and numerical modeling demonstrates that global warming is increasing the risk of these types of events today. Debates about whether single events are "caused" by climate change are illogical, but individual events offer important lessons about society's vulnerabilities to climate change. Reducing the future risk of extreme weather requires reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to changes that are already unavoidable.
INTRODUCTION
Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes in temperature or precipitation, but most of the social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from shifts in the frequency and severity of extreme events.1 This fact is illustrated by a large number of costly weather disasters in 2010, which tied 2005 as the warmest year globally since 1880.2 Incidentally, both years were noted for exceptionally damaging weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the deadly Russian heat wave in 2010. Other remarkable events of 2010 include Pakistan’s biggest flood, Canada’s warmest year, and Southwest Australia’s driest year. 2011 continued in similar form, with “biblical” flooding in Australia, the second hottest summer in U.S. history, devastating drought and wildfires in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as well as historic flooding in North Dakota, the Lower Mississippi and in the Northeast.3
Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company, has compiled global disaster for 1980-2010. In its analysis, 2010 had the second-largest (after 2007) number of recorded natural disasters and the fifth-greatest economic losses.4 Although there were far more deaths from geological disasters—almost entirely from the Haiti earthquake—more than 90 percent of all disasters and 65 percent of associated economic damages were weather and climate related (i.e. high winds, flooding, heavy snowfall, heat waves, droughts, wildfires). In all, 874 weather and climate-related disasters resulted in 68,000 deaths and $99 billion in damages worldwide in 2010.
The fact that 2010 was one of the warmest years on record as well as one of the most disastrous, begs the question: Is global warming causing more extreme weather? The short and simple answer is yes, at least for heat waves and heavy precipitation.5 But much of the public discussion of this relationship obscures the link behind a misplaced focus on causation of individual weather events. The questions we ask of science are critical: When we ask whether climate change “caused” a particular event, we pose a fundamentally unanswerable question (see Box 1). This fallacy assures that we will often fail to draw connections between individual weather events and climate change, leading us to disregard the real risks of more extreme weather due to global warming.
Climate change is defined by changes in mean climate conditions—that is, the average of hundreds or thousands events over the span of decades. Over the past 30 years, for example, any single weather event could be omitted or added to the record without altering the long-term trend in weather extremes and the statistical relationship between that trend and the rise in global temperatures. Hence, it is illogical to debate the direct climatological link between a single event and the long-term rise in the global average surface temperature.
CLIMATE TRENDS
Taken in aggregate, this narrative of extreme events over recent decades provides a few snapshots of a larger statistical trend toward more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Rising frequency of heavy downpours is an expected consequence of a warming climate, and this trend has been observed. Some areas will see more droughts as overall rainfall decreases and other areas will experience heavy precipitation more frequently. Still other regions may not experience a change in total rainfall amounts but might see rain come in rarer, more intense bursts, potentially leading to flash floods punctuating periods of chronic drought. Therefore, observed trends in heat, heavy precipitation, and drought in different places are consistent with global warming.29
Over the past 50 years, total rainfall has increased by 7 percent globally, much of which is due to increased frequency of heavy downpours. In the United States, the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest 1 percent of rain events has increased by nearly 20 percent overall, while the frequency of light and moderate events has been steady or decreasing (Fig. 1).30 Meanwhile, heat waves have become more humid, thereby increasing biological heat stress, and are increasingly characterized by extremely high nighttime temperatures, which are responsible for most heat-related deaths.31 In the western United States, drought is more frequent and more persistent, while the Midwest experiences less frequent drought but more frequent heavy precipitation.32
Record daytime and nighttime high temperatures have been increasing on a global scale.33 In the United States today, a record high temperature is twice as likely to be broken as a record low, and nighttime temperature records show a strong upward trend (Fig. 2). By contrast, record highs and lows were about equally likely in the 1950s (Fig. 3).34 This trend shows that the risk of heat waves is increasing over time, consistent with the results of global climate models that are forced by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.35 Indeed, the observed heat wave intensities in the early 21st century already exceed the worst-case projections of climate models.36 Moreover, the distribution of observed temperatures is wider than the temperature range produced by climate models, suggesting that models may underestimate the rising risk extreme heat as warming proceeds.
Why is it every source old crock posts up is a hard left wing scaremonger source? Never is there evidence or science involved in his charades of left wing sources. Just like Rolling blunder boy you guys never do real science or read the supporting evidence for your posts.
ROTFLMFAO......
Riiiiight, Boober, there's obviously no science involved with the National Climate Assessment of U.S. Global Change Research Program
Or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather
NOAA
Or the article by Dr. William Chameides - Professor of the Environment, and Dean of the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences at Duke University.
WEATHER PREDICTION, CLIMATE PREDICTION. WHATS THE DIFF?
Or
El Nino-driven storm blasts California, southwestern US with rain and snow
AccuWeather
By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
January 31, 2016
For the umpteenth time..... computer models are not data. Learn something and take a real science class sometime so you can understand just how moronic you truly are.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Polar ice caps have disappeared, right?The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.
If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?
Show us such a prediction that is not simply a review of the effects of past el Nino events.
The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.
If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?
Show us such a prediction that is not simply a review of the effects of past el Nino events.
Polar ice caps have disappeared, right?
