Current COVID-19 Mortality Rate: 1.35%

[XponentialChaos]

That isn't "data." It's horseshit.

It's data.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Might as well go further with the mortality rates over the last several days:

3/22: 1.30%
3/23: 1.21%
3/24: 1.25%
3/25: 1.35%
3/26: 1.44%
3/27: 1.46%
3/28: 1.67%
3/29: 1.76%
3/30: 1.93% (Technically today is 3/31 but it's at the end of 3/30)

MIght as well go with some other science fiction? Those numbers are all fantasy.

Those are the best numbers we have access to, the same numbers that everyone is using.

Trump shut down our economy and signed a $2 Trillion stimulus bill over these numbers. Are you saying he did that based on fantasy???

Those numbers are all bullshit. The "experts" who publish them know they are all bullshit. Rejecting them would expose Trump to the unmitigated attacks from fake news.

The true death rate is the ratio of deaths over the number of people infected, and the numbers you posted aren't based on that calculation.

You must be soooooo mad at Trump for crashing the economy over those fantasy numbers, right?

Right???

No. Trump is simply bowing to political necessity. The people responsible are the fake news media and TDS morons like you.

So what you're saying is that Trump doesn't have the balls to stand up to the media and TDS morons like me, so he crashed the economy over fantasy numbers.

Is that right?

Oh man, that sounds so terrible. What a wuss! Why would you support a guy like that?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Cases were lower today than yesterday (in terms of new ones).

In other words, the number of cases is still growing exponentially.

Why do I have to hold your hand 100% of the time?

 

[bripat9643]

Cases were lower today than yesterday (in terms of new ones).

In other words, the number of cases is still growing exponentially.

Why do I have to hold your hand 100% of the time?

Hmmmm, no. What part of "less today than yesterday" means the number is growing?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Hmmmm, no. What part of "less today than yesterday" means the number is growing?

Dude, seriously? Fuck man, this is like talking to children.

If the number of new cases today is 1000, and the number of new cases tomorrow is 999...is the number of new cases growing?

Take your time.

Also, that dummy was wrong anyway. At no point so far has the number of new cases in a day been smaller than the number of new cases the day before.

 

[WEATHER53]

Pretty odd that in the marvelous age of 2020 where everything can be surveilled and accounted for that with this mess there are no numbers on how many have been exposed and were not infected versus were, how many have it so mildly they dont know, how many of the dead were in what age group and had other conditions, and on and on. Was nothing researched or kept from prior outbreaks????
Pretty insidious to act as if worst case outcomes are The Most Likely outcome and shut down America with so much data apparently non existent . Pretty convenient also.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Cases were lower today than yesterday (in terms of new ones).

In other words, the number of cases is still growing exponentially.

Why do I have to hold your hand 100% of the time?

Hmmmm, no. What part of "less today than yesterday" means the number is growing?

Mr. Dumbass does not understand what exponential growth is.

He got his ass kicked on another thread for posting bullshit about Sweden (in terms of numbers). It is clear he does not shit about math and only wants to flap his Obama sucking lips.

BTW: I have him on ignore. It makes reading threads a lot easier as you don't have to wade through the bulshit.

 

[dblack]

Hmmmm, no. What part of "less today than yesterday" means the number is growing?

Dude, seriously? Fuck man, this is like talking to children.

Petulant children who believe they can get out of anything with the right excuse.

 

[bripat9643]

Hmmmm, no. What part of "less today than yesterday" means the number is growing?

Dude, seriously? Fuck man, this is like talking to children.

If the number of new cases today is 1000, and the number of new cases tomorrow is 999...is the number of new cases growing?

Take your time.

Also, that dummy was wrong anyway. At no point so far has the number of new cases in a day been smaller than the number of new cases the day before.

Seriously, dumbass. Again, what part of "less today than yesterday" means the number of NEW CASES is growing? That's a way to say the number of NEW CASES is declining. The total number of cases is growing, but not the number of new cases.

You really are too stupid to figure this out?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Mr. Dumbass does not

I of course, do. It is you who did not, when you said the " coefficient of the exponent" (a nonsensical phrase that shows you never took algebra) was near zero.

You meant exponent, and no, it's not near zero. You meant, it is near 1 (another sign you never took algebra). But that is not also wrong, but also very stupid, as even 1.00001 is exponential growth.

Furthermore, when we have 60 days of data, one day of data (that is likely not accurate in that it is not the true daily total) does not then buck the trend. Yes, cases are still going exponentially. No, you have no grasp of algebra and should not be lecturing anyone on it.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Seriously, dumbass. Again, what part of "less today than yesterday" means the number of NEW CASES is growing?

Ah, thought you would change what you said and try to sneak it by us. This shows that you realiZe your prior error. So my work is done

Furthermore, as another poster pointed out, you are incorrect to draw conclusions about the trend from a single day of incomplete data, or even a few days of it.

 

[bripat9643]

Hmmmm, no. What part of "less today than yesterday" means the number is growing?

Dude, seriously? Fuck man, this is like talking to children.

Petulant children who believe they can get out of anything with the right excuse.

By defending FFI, you're only proving that you're dumber than he is, and that is fucking dumb.

 

[bripat9643]

Seriously, dumbass. Again, what part of "less today than yesterday" means the number of NEW CASES is growing?

Ah, thought you would change what you said and try to sneak it by us. This shows that you realiZe your prior error. So my work is done

Furthermore, as another poster pointed out, you are incorrect to draw conclusions about the trend from a single day of incomplete data, or even a few days of it.

I didn't change anything, shit for brains.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Coronavirus Mortality Rate in the United States

3/22: 1.30%
3/23: 1.21%
3/24: 1.25%
3/25: 1.35%
3/26: 1.44%
3/27: 1.46%
3/28: 1.67%
3/29: 1.76%
3/30: 1.93%
3/31: 2.06%

 

[bripat9643]

Coronavirus Mortality Rate in the United States

3/22: 1.30%
3/23: 1.21%
3/24: 1.25%
3/25: 1.35%
3/26: 1.44%
3/27: 1.46%
3/28: 1.67%
3/29: 1.76%
3/30: 1.93%
3/31: 2.06%

Smoke and mirrors.

 

[XponentialChaos]

Coronavirus Mortality Rate in the United States

3/22: 1.30%
3/23: 1.21%
3/24: 1.25%
3/25: 1.35%
3/26: 1.44%
3/27: 1.46%
3/28: 1.67%
3/29: 1.76%
3/30: 1.93%
3/31: 2.06%

Smoke and mirrors.

You're entitled to your dumb thoughts.

 

[dblack]

Hmmmm, no. What part of "less today than yesterday" means the number is growing?

Dude, seriously? Fuck man, this is like talking to children.

Petulant children who believe they can get out of anything with the right excuse.

By defending FFI, you're only proving that you're dumber than he is, and that is fucking dumb.

Don't be silly. I'm not defending FFI. I'm making fun of you.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

I didn't change anything

Of course you did. You added " new", because you realized that you said something very stupid earlier.

Furthermore, you are a moron to say that one day of incomplete data determines a change in a 60 day trend.

 

[Olde Europe]

The death toll this hour stands at 2,400. [...] Currently, the infection count doubles about every three days. Let's hope social distancing works and the count slows down and doubles every four days for the next weeks. With some time lag, the death rate follows, all else equal, without some miraculous breakthrough in treatment, that same trajectory.

So, given the trajectory we get to

4,800 in 4 days
9,600 in 8 days
19,200 in 12 days
38,400 in 16 days
76,800 in 20 days
In 24 days, the count will be above 100k.

That was from March 29.

As of April 1, the fatality count stands at 4,745 - except it took just three days for the (near) doubling, not the four I had hoped it would be. So, while the count of new (confirmed) infections still rises, the day-to-day percentage rise is way down from 40+% to around 15%, which is good news.

But darn. Flatten that curve already.

 

[Olde Europe]

The death toll this hour stands at 2,400. [...] Currently, the infection count doubles about every three days. Let's hope social distancing works and the count slows down and doubles every four days for the next weeks. With some time lag, the death rate follows, all else equal, without some miraculous breakthrough in treatment, that same trajectory.

So, given the trajectory we get to

4,800 in 4 days
9,600 in 8 days
19,200 in 12 days
38,400 in 16 days
76,800 in 20 days
In 24 days, the count will be above 100k.

That was from March 29.

As of April 1, the fatality count stands at 4,745 - except it took just three days for the (near) doubling, not the four I had hoped it would be. So, while the count of new (confirmed) infections still rises, the day-to-day percentage rise is way down from 40+% to around 15%, which is good news.

As of April 5, the fatality count stands at 9,534 - and this time it actually took four days for the (near) doubling. The quadrupling took seven days, and thus the count is still one day ahead of my projection. Also, the new infection count for the day dropped, precipitously, from 33k to below 27k, which is good news. Hope the trend holds, and developing hotspots have been caught early so as to contain them.

All the while the death rate (fatalities / confirmed cases) rose to 2.86% - more than double the rate at the opening of this thread. To me that suggests that testing falls further behind the spread of the virus.