Despite the media narrative Trump has taken the lead in two recent polls. Dems nervous yet?

[LoneLaugher]

The calls from the right to kill the electoral college will become deafening as this election draws near.

Nearly every single model I've seen predicts that if there is an Popular vote Vs. Electoral Vote split, Trump wins. He's under performing in Red States he will certainly win while Clinton is running up massive totals in the Blue states she has in the bag.

If anyone should be pissed about the Electoral college is should be....well...everyone. It's in place specifically to stop a demagogue like Trump and it may be what hands him the win.

What? You think Trump is more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote?

Yes. It's roughly the same way he won the Primaries. Ride a small coalition to victory in the Red states, make a narrow win in the swing states, call it a day.

Again, this isn't just my call. Go check out the models and the stat analysis on the race so far. Nearly everyone concludes that if there's a split, it's Trump in the Electoral not vice versa. Hillary will easily carry the blue states by wide margins while Trump is really struggling in the Red states to carry them at Romney levels. He may win Utah (may) and will likely win Texas, for example, but the margin will be among the narrowest a GOP candidate has every won by in those states.

What do you mean...if there is a split? Trump is way behind in the electoral count while he is within a few points in popular vote polls. I'm not following you at all.

 

[bravoactual]

The radio just said he was up 20 points with independents in that poll.

Did I hear that right?

Take a look at 538 and you will have your answer. That poll is of today. No the Trumpmeister is not up, he is losing. Fox News asks Fox News Consumers Fox News Push Poll Questions and get the answer that Fox News wants. CNN is a very Conservative source, loaded with people like der Trumpenfuckers former Campaign Manager (still der Trumpenfuckers payroll btw).

You hear what you want to hear and ignore the rest. 538 has been accurate since before 2008. Nate Silver was correct is predicting the RePuBliKlan take of the House and Senate in 2010. He was correct about that idiot Romney you people nominated.

Donny the Dummy will lose, accept it and move on.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The calls from the right to kill the electoral college will become deafening as this election draws near.

Nearly every single model I've seen predicts that if there is an Popular vote Vs. Electoral Vote split, Trump wins. He's under performing in Red States he will certainly win while Clinton is running up massive totals in the Blue states she has in the bag.

If anyone should be pissed about the Electoral college is should be....well...everyone. It's in place specifically to stop a demagogue like Trump and it may be what hands him the win.

What? You think Trump is more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote?

Yes. It's roughly the same way he won the Primaries. Ride a small coalition to victory in the Red states, make a narrow win in the swing states, call it a day.

Again, this isn't just my call. Go check out the models and the stat analysis on the race so far. Nearly everyone concludes that if there's a split, it's Trump in the Electoral not vice versa. Hillary will easily carry the blue states by wide margins while Trump is really struggling in the Red states to carry them at Romney levels. He may win Utah (may) and will likely win Texas, for example, but the margin will be among the narrowest a GOP candidate has every won by in those states.

What do you mean...if there is a split? Trump is way behind in the electoral count while he is within a few points in popular vote polls. I'm not following you at all.

I mean if the Electoral and Popular are different results, Trump probably won the Electoral and lost the Popular.

I don't think it's likely, but it is more likely than the reverse. If Hillary wins the Electoral, she's almost certainly won the popular because she's running up huge margins in Blue states. For Trump the reverse isn't true. In his "safe" states he's not winning by all that much. He could win his safe states, eek out a win in a few clutch battlegrounds, and win the Electoral while losing the popular vote by a fairly decent margin.

I view this as the worst possible outcome btw. That's pretty much how history shows Hitler getting control of Germany. Hitler never won a majority in the popular vote until he was in position to outright control the government entirely. Trump could conceivable follow a narrow electoral victory into power and take that as some kind of insane mandate.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

The radio just said he was up 20 points with independents in that poll.

Did I hear that right?

Take a look at 538 and you will have your answer. That poll is of today. No the Trumpmeister is not up, he is losing. Fox News asks Fox News Consumers Fox News Push Poll Questions and get the answer that Fox News wants. CNN is a very Conservative source, loaded with people like der Trumpenfuckers former Campaign Manager (still der Trumpenfuckers payroll btw).

You hear what you want to hear and ignore the rest. 538 has been accurate since before 2008. Nate Silver was correct is predicting the RePuBliKlan take of the House and Senate in 2010. He was correct about that idiot Romney you people nominated.

Donny the Dummy will lose, accept it and move on.

You're an idiot. CNN is very conservative lololololololololol

Dumbest shit I've heard in awhile and that's saying A LOT considering Matthew & Rderp post daily

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

The calls from the right to kill the electoral college will become deafening as this election draws near.

Nearly every single model I've seen predicts that if there is an Popular vote Vs. Electoral Vote split, Trump wins. He's under performing in Red States he will certainly win while Clinton is running up massive totals in the Blue states she has in the bag.

If anyone should be pissed about the Electoral college is should be....well...everyone. It's in place specifically to stop a demagogue like Trump and it may be what hands him the win.

What? You think Trump is more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote?

Yes. It's roughly the same way he won the Primaries. Ride a small coalition to victory in the Red states, make a narrow win in the swing states, call it a day.

Again, this isn't just my call. Go check out the models and the stat analysis on the race so far. Nearly everyone concludes that if there's a split, it's Trump in the Electoral not vice versa. Hillary will easily carry the blue states by wide margins while Trump is really struggling in the Red states to carry them at Romney levels. He may win Utah (may) and will likely win Texas, for example, but the margin will be among the narrowest a GOP candidate has every won by in those states.

What do you mean...if there is a split? Trump is way behind in the electoral count while he is within a few points in popular vote polls. I'm not following you at all.

I mean if the Electoral and Popular are different results, Trump probably won the Electoral and lost the Popular.

I don't think it's likely, but it is more likely than the reverse. If Hillary wins the Electoral, she's almost certainly won the popular because she's running up huge margins in Blue states. For Trump the reverse isn't true. In his "safe" states he's not winning by all that much. He could win his safe states, eek out a win in a few clutch battlegrounds, and win the Electoral while losing the popular vote by a fairly decent margin.

I view this as the worst possible outcome btw. That's pretty much how history shows Hitler getting control of Germany. Hitler never won a majority in the popular vote until he was in position to outright control the government entirely. Trump could conceivable follow a narrow electoral victory into power and take that as some kind of insane mandate.

Trump =/= Hitler
North does Hillary

Such references are fucking retarded

 

[LoneLaugher]

The calls from the right to kill the electoral college will become deafening as this election draws near.

Nearly every single model I've seen predicts that if there is an Popular vote Vs. Electoral Vote split, Trump wins. He's under performing in Red States he will certainly win while Clinton is running up massive totals in the Blue states she has in the bag.

If anyone should be pissed about the Electoral college is should be....well...everyone. It's in place specifically to stop a demagogue like Trump and it may be what hands him the win.

What? You think Trump is more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote?

Yes. It's roughly the same way he won the Primaries. Ride a small coalition to victory in the Red states, make a narrow win in the swing states, call it a day.

Again, this isn't just my call. Go check out the models and the stat analysis on the race so far. Nearly everyone concludes that if there's a split, it's Trump in the Electoral not vice versa. Hillary will easily carry the blue states by wide margins while Trump is really struggling in the Red states to carry them at Romney levels. He may win Utah (may) and will likely win Texas, for example, but the margin will be among the narrowest a GOP candidate has every won by in those states.

What do you mean...if there is a split? Trump is way behind in the electoral count while he is within a few points in popular vote polls. I'm not following you at all.

I mean if the Electoral and Popular are different results, Trump probably won the Electoral and lost the Popular.

I don't think it's likely, but it is more likely than the reverse. If Hillary wins the Electoral, she's almost certainly won the popular because she's running up huge margins in Blue states. For Trump the reverse isn't true. In his "safe" states he's not winning by all that much. He could win his safe states, eek out a win in a few clutch battlegrounds, and win the Electoral while losing the popular vote by a fairly decent margin.

I view this as the worst possible outcome btw. That's pretty much how history shows Hitler getting control of Germany. Hitler never won a majority in the popular vote until he was in position to outright control the government entirely. Trump could conceivable follow a narrow electoral victory into power and take that as some kind of insane mandate.

I think you are confused.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Nearly every single model I've seen predicts that if there is an Popular vote Vs. Electoral Vote split, Trump wins. He's under performing in Red States he will certainly win while Clinton is running up massive totals in the Blue states she has in the bag.

If anyone should be pissed about the Electoral college is should be....well...everyone. It's in place specifically to stop a demagogue like Trump and it may be what hands him the win.

What? You think Trump is more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote?

Yes. It's roughly the same way he won the Primaries. Ride a small coalition to victory in the Red states, make a narrow win in the swing states, call it a day.

Again, this isn't just my call. Go check out the models and the stat analysis on the race so far. Nearly everyone concludes that if there's a split, it's Trump in the Electoral not vice versa. Hillary will easily carry the blue states by wide margins while Trump is really struggling in the Red states to carry them at Romney levels. He may win Utah (may) and will likely win Texas, for example, but the margin will be among the narrowest a GOP candidate has every won by in those states.

What do you mean...if there is a split? Trump is way behind in the electoral count while he is within a few points in popular vote polls. I'm not following you at all.

I mean if the Electoral and Popular are different results, Trump probably won the Electoral and lost the Popular.

I don't think it's likely, but it is more likely than the reverse. If Hillary wins the Electoral, she's almost certainly won the popular because she's running up huge margins in Blue states. For Trump the reverse isn't true. In his "safe" states he's not winning by all that much. He could win his safe states, eek out a win in a few clutch battlegrounds, and win the Electoral while losing the popular vote by a fairly decent margin.

I view this as the worst possible outcome btw. That's pretty much how history shows Hitler getting control of Germany. Hitler never won a majority in the popular vote until he was in position to outright control the government entirely. Trump could conceivable follow a narrow electoral victory into power and take that as some kind of insane mandate.

I think you are confused.

What do you mean? Do you think that if there is a split between Electoral and Popular that Trump wins the Popular and Hillary the Electoral?

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Nearly every single model I've seen predicts that if there is an Popular vote Vs. Electoral Vote split, Trump wins. He's under performing in Red States he will certainly win while Clinton is running up massive totals in the Blue states she has in the bag.

If anyone should be pissed about the Electoral college is should be....well...everyone. It's in place specifically to stop a demagogue like Trump and it may be what hands him the win.

What? You think Trump is more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote?

Yes. It's roughly the same way he won the Primaries. Ride a small coalition to victory in the Red states, make a narrow win in the swing states, call it a day.

Again, this isn't just my call. Go check out the models and the stat analysis on the race so far. Nearly everyone concludes that if there's a split, it's Trump in the Electoral not vice versa. Hillary will easily carry the blue states by wide margins while Trump is really struggling in the Red states to carry them at Romney levels. He may win Utah (may) and will likely win Texas, for example, but the margin will be among the narrowest a GOP candidate has every won by in those states.

What do you mean...if there is a split? Trump is way behind in the electoral count while he is within a few points in popular vote polls. I'm not following you at all.

I mean if the Electoral and Popular are different results, Trump probably won the Electoral and lost the Popular.

I don't think it's likely, but it is more likely than the reverse. If Hillary wins the Electoral, she's almost certainly won the popular because she's running up huge margins in Blue states. For Trump the reverse isn't true. In his "safe" states he's not winning by all that much. He could win his safe states, eek out a win in a few clutch battlegrounds, and win the Electoral while losing the popular vote by a fairly decent margin.

I view this as the worst possible outcome btw. That's pretty much how history shows Hitler getting control of Germany. Hitler never won a majority in the popular vote until he was in position to outright control the government entirely. Trump could conceivable follow a narrow electoral victory into power and take that as some kind of insane mandate.

Trump =/= Hitler
North does Hillary

Such references are fucking retarded

I agree Trump and Clinton aren't Hitler, but I just do not like narrow controversial election results. Both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush came to power in elections with hijinks going on and both faced a very divided nation because of it. Clinton was dogged by witch hunts for the rest of his time as President while Bush also faced serious questions by opponents about the legitimacy of his first term. Given how controversial both Clinton and Trump are, given Trump's own claims about the election being fixed, the last thing I want is for Clinton to win the popular vote and Trump to win the electoral college, or vice versa. That result might finish tearing this country apart.

 

[LoneLaugher]

What? You think Trump is more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote?

Yes. It's roughly the same way he won the Primaries. Ride a small coalition to victory in the Red states, make a narrow win in the swing states, call it a day.

Again, this isn't just my call. Go check out the models and the stat analysis on the race so far. Nearly everyone concludes that if there's a split, it's Trump in the Electoral not vice versa. Hillary will easily carry the blue states by wide margins while Trump is really struggling in the Red states to carry them at Romney levels. He may win Utah (may) and will likely win Texas, for example, but the margin will be among the narrowest a GOP candidate has every won by in those states.

What do you mean...if there is a split? Trump is way behind in the electoral count while he is within a few points in popular vote polls. I'm not following you at all.

I mean if the Electoral and Popular are different results, Trump probably won the Electoral and lost the Popular.

I don't think it's likely, but it is more likely than the reverse. If Hillary wins the Electoral, she's almost certainly won the popular because she's running up huge margins in Blue states. For Trump the reverse isn't true. In his "safe" states he's not winning by all that much. He could win his safe states, eek out a win in a few clutch battlegrounds, and win the Electoral while losing the popular vote by a fairly decent margin.

I view this as the worst possible outcome btw. That's pretty much how history shows Hitler getting control of Germany. Hitler never won a majority in the popular vote until he was in position to outright control the government entirely. Trump could conceivable follow a narrow electoral victory into power and take that as some kind of insane mandate.

I think you are confused.

What do you mean? Do you think that if there is a split between Electoral and Popular that Trump wins the Popular and Hillary the Electoral?

Trump has a greater chance of winning the popular vote than he does reaching 270. I'm not sure what data you are looking at. Every major source I see has Clinton approaching 270 without winning any of the traditional swing states. Meanwhile, the popular vote is fairly tight.

 

[SmokeALib]

The radio just said he was up 20 points with independents in that poll.

Did I hear that right?

Take a look at 538 and you will have your answer. That poll is of today. No the Trumpmeister is not up, he is losing. Fox News asks Fox News Consumers Fox News Push Poll Questions and get the answer that Fox News wants. CNN is a very Conservative source, loaded with people like der Trumpenfuckers former Campaign Manager (still der Trumpenfuckers payroll btw).

You hear what you want to hear and ignore the rest. 538 has been accurate since before 2008. Nate Silver was correct is predicting the RePuBliKlan take of the House and Senate in 2010. He was correct about that idiot Romney you people nominated.

Donny the Dummy will lose, accept it and move on.

Government check?

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Yes. It's roughly the same way he won the Primaries. Ride a small coalition to victory in the Red states, make a narrow win in the swing states, call it a day.

Again, this isn't just my call. Go check out the models and the stat analysis on the race so far. Nearly everyone concludes that if there's a split, it's Trump in the Electoral not vice versa. Hillary will easily carry the blue states by wide margins while Trump is really struggling in the Red states to carry them at Romney levels. He may win Utah (may) and will likely win Texas, for example, but the margin will be among the narrowest a GOP candidate has every won by in those states.

What do you mean...if there is a split? Trump is way behind in the electoral count while he is within a few points in popular vote polls. I'm not following you at all.

I mean if the Electoral and Popular are different results, Trump probably won the Electoral and lost the Popular.

I don't think it's likely, but it is more likely than the reverse. If Hillary wins the Electoral, she's almost certainly won the popular because she's running up huge margins in Blue states. For Trump the reverse isn't true. In his "safe" states he's not winning by all that much. He could win his safe states, eek out a win in a few clutch battlegrounds, and win the Electoral while losing the popular vote by a fairly decent margin.

I view this as the worst possible outcome btw. That's pretty much how history shows Hitler getting control of Germany. Hitler never won a majority in the popular vote until he was in position to outright control the government entirely. Trump could conceivable follow a narrow electoral victory into power and take that as some kind of insane mandate.

I think you are confused.

What do you mean? Do you think that if there is a split between Electoral and Popular that Trump wins the Popular and Hillary the Electoral?

Trump has a greater chance of winning the popular vote than he does reaching 270. I'm not sure what data you are looking at. Every major source I see has Clinton approaching 270 without winning any of the traditional swing states. Meanwhile, the popular vote is fairly tight.

All the Data below comes from ElectoralVote.com. That said:

Her margin in the Electoral College is dependent on leads in swing states that aren't actually that high. Clinton leads Trump by 3 in New Hampshire (4 EV's), 3 in Colorado (9 EV's), 2 in Florida (29 EV's) 2 in North Carolina (15 Ev's), 2 in Maine (4 EV's), tied in Ohio (18 EV's). There are a few more where she leads by 4, but all those states where she leads by 3 in the polling averages are states where Trump is close enough that a surprising turn out or polling error could tip the State into his column.

Then go look at the solid Red and Blue states. Clinton is leading the Blue States by huge margins. They're almost unprecedented. Trump is winning the Red states, but the margin is a lot closer. FiveThirtyEight and other sites have drawn the same conclusion from these numbers: IF there is a split in the outcomes, Electoral vs. Popular, it's a lot more likely that Clinton wins the popular by running up huge totals in states she was already winning vs. Trump winning the Electoral due to just barely squeaking out victories in the swing states.

Again, the split isn't likely. But given the margins Clinton is winning Blue States by there's no way she wins the Electoral Vote without winning the Popular vote. Trump/Clinton margins in Red/Blue states.