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CBO said:On September 25, 2013, the Treasury estimated that its ability to borrow under those extraordinary measures will be exhausted no later than October 17, leaving a cash balance of approximately $30 billion. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) currently projects that the Treasury will exhaust all of the borrowing authority created by those measures, as well as its cash balance, between October 22 and the end of the month. (It is possible, however, that the date could fall outside of that range.)
CBO said:Cash Outflows from the Treasury
October 1payments to Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D plans; pay for active-duty members of the military; and benefit payments for civil service and military retirees, veterans, and recipients of Supplemental Security Income (about $42 billion, in total).
October 3payments of Social Security benefits (about $25 billion).
October 9, 16, and 23additional Social Security benefit payments (about $12 billion each time).
October 31payment of interest on Treasury securities (about $6 billion).
November 1payments of Social Security benefits (shifted from the third of the month, which falls on a Sunday); payments to Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D plans; pay for active-duty members of the military; and benefit payments for civil service and military retirees, veterans, and recipients of Supplemental Security Income (about $67 billion).
November 13payments of additional Social Security benefits (about $12 billion).
November 15large quarterly payment of interest on Treasury securities (about $30 billion). Most of the benefit payments involve redeeming GAS securities from a trust fund, thereby temporarily providing additional room to borrow from the public in order
to raise cash.
In addition to these payments, government spending for its ongoing programs and activities is likely to average about $10 billion a day over the next several weeks, but
can vary from one business day to the next.
Issuance of Government Account Series Securities At the beginning of October, large investments will be made in both the Military Retirement Fund and the Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Fund to account for the amortization of the unfunded liability for certain retirement benefits earned by military personnel for service before 1985 and for accrual contributions to cover the cost of future benefits for current military personnel.
Those payments are expected to boost the amount of debt held by government accounts by a total of about $80 billion.
Also, in the middle of October, the Highway Trust Fund is expected to receive an intragovernmental payment from the general fund, thereby increasing debt held by
government accounts by $12 billion.
Cash Inflows to the Treasury
Most inflows will be from remittances by employers of income and payroll taxes withheld from paychecks. Those remittances typically average about $7 billion per
day but can vary significantly from one business day to the next.
The market thinks this will get resolved. Even if we go over the cliff, it won't believe politicians won't fix it until sometime between a few days and a few weeks afterwards. Then the Dow will fall 1000+ points over a few days. People will be baffled why it fell so hard so suddenly after initially ignoring the cliff.
