U2Edge
Gold Member
- Sep 15, 2012
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Again, the whole thing of having a state locked up is a temporary feature of current political dynamics which won't last Forever. In 1964 almost all states went Democrat and voted Johnson. 8 years later they voted for Republicans and Nixon.
A third party can break into the system, but it has to be strong enough to replace one of the two parties dominating the system at the current time. Perot was not going to be President no matter what system was used. The Republican Party was not around before 1854, yet it successfully won and became one of the major two parties.
And we've had Duopoly virtually ever since. Which was not the case before 1854 (or in this case we should say 1860).
It's not "temporary" at all; it's a permanent fixture until it gets fixed. Your allusions to 1964 and 1972 just affirm that.
So does this:
ah, yes, good one. I wonder when the last time Tennessee went Blue.
Exactly. Tennessee is going red no matter what any individual voter does so they might as well stay home and bake cookies. That's why our election turnout is dozens of points behind the civilised world. Because for most people, what's the point?
Let's face it, the only way for a third party to make an incursion on the system is to siphon off enough Duopoly votes so that nobody gets a majority in the EC, which then throws the whole election to the House of Reps who can do whatever they want. In other words the only way a 3P can have a chance of winning is to negate the entire election itself. And that's because under the WTA system 100% of a state's vote is going to whoever gets the most even if the most is 33.4%. That's tantamount to telling 3P voters to stay home.
Again, the electoral college is not at fault for the current political dynamics in the country or the alleged duopoly. Any third party could break into the system just as the Republican party did in the 1850s. It just has to have enough support to replace one of the two dominate political parties.
"Alleged" Duopoly??
When's the last time we had a POTUS who was not a Democrat or Republican?
Save your Wiki click, it was Whig Zachary Taylor in 1848 ---- before the Duopoly existed. The Republican Party was years in the future and the Democrat Taylor defeated, van Buren, had himself organized that party just 15 years prior (and the Whigs were the same age).
The Republican Party was not a "third" party; it was another party in a time when multiple parties existed and two major ones --- Whigs and Know Nothings --- were taking their last gasps because neither one would address the elephant in the room of the era -- Slavery.
Duopoly means a closed system. It runs everything right down to the Presidential debates, and it's not about to allow any third party in on its racket. And the WTA/EC perpetuates that racket and ensures that we never get out of it.
As I said -- there's no argument to defend that.
The 1850s can occur again, so there is no hard Duopoly. Lots people like the current two parties, even more so today, but things change, and the electoral college won't stop things from changing. Teddy Roosevelt came close to unseating the two parties with his progressive run in 1912. He certainly sent Taft and the Republicans down into the gutter.
It's very much a "hard" Duopoly, I like the term. Again, the last non-Republican non-Democrat POTUS arrived 171 years ago at a time when both major parties were approximately fifteen years old. Today the major parties are 165, so they've had eleven times as much time to entrench Want to start a third party that gets enough attention to compete? Sure. All you have to do is deconstruct the monstrous two-headed system that runs the joint now, and rotsa ruck getting that Duopoly to let you into any debates, because they literally run it.
Which reminds of a quote by Al Gore's relative Gore Vidal:
"As far as a third party, we tried that in 1972, the People's Party. Unfortunately we hadn't remembered that in order to have a third party, you must first have two other parties". --- which just underscores that this entrenched Duopoly is not something I just discovered.
TR in 1912 siphoned off enough votes to come in second and push the Republican to third, which is the last time any 3P even achieved that much, but he was (a) a former POTUS well-known and (b) had come to the Republican convention with most of the primary delegates, so that was essentially the party deciding to go the corporate route and nix the progressive one, which cost them the election and enabled Wilson to take office with his 41% of the PV. But when Wilson left office, the next Republican challenger Harding won with the then-largest landslide ever, and barely had to campaign at all. So if the Duopoly was challenged by that, it sure shook it off with a quickness.
Just to put that in perspective.
I think if women had been allowed to vote, Teddy Roosevelt would have won in 1912. So again, the two dominate parties are not invincible. But, to the Republican and Democratic party's benefit, both have changed over time to survive and win. Most people can find something their looking for in either of the two party's.
In any event, the electoral college is not going away. There is not nearly enough support to amend the constitution on this issue. The other way of doing it with the NPVIC would get a lot closer to achieving the goal but is unlikely to ever get to 270. Even if it did get to 270, eventually several of the states would overturn the measure and return to awarding their electoral votes to the winner of the state popular vote.
Things will change over time. Which states are important will change over time. 100 years from now people will be fleeing the big coastal states for the interior due to global warming causing sea level rise. I think the electoral college will stay in place though.