CaféAuLait;6234532 said:I just found this and I find it interesting:
For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
Another citation of the invalid Fordham list!
As I told someone else here just a few posts back, that Initial Report from Fordham is long-outdated. It was compiled the day after the election, before all ballots had been tallied. It was based on an ESTIMATE of a 6.15 point Obama win. That early estimate was wrong; Obama won by 7.28 per the FEC. A number of sources incorrectly cite this outdated, incorrect list instead of Fordham's subsequent final analysis, which found that eight pollsters were more accurate than Rasmussen.
Being new here, I'm not allowed to post direct links, but the final Fordham analysis is titled "Preelection Poll Accuracy in the 2008 General Elections." Look it up.
Obama won by 7.28 points, 52.93% to 45.65%.
Rasmussen underestimated Obama by projecting a 6-point win, 52% to 46%.
Both CNN and Ipsos were more accurate with their 7-point projections, 53% to 46%.