GALLUP: Romney Up 51%-46%...

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Seems that waym yet Rasmussen has the same numbers today:

Swing State Tracking: Romney 51%, Obama 45%

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

Or am I an idiot and Rasmussen and Gallup the same?

It appears my point went completely over your head.

No it did not, I was suggesting that Rasmussen may also have egg on their face, given the numbers match.

Ah okay

 

[mex]

memes.

someone must have learned a new word!

Bravo.

you've only used it 43 times in this thread... try not to wear it out

no i haven't, maybe you need to learn how to count?

Great comeback. I yield to your mental prowess.

 

[Plasmaball]

So you can only resort to talking trash, rather than make a lucid point. Such typical far left behavior.

Well, why don't we look at his contributions since 2002 shall we?

Contributions to Republicans: $8,100.00 Contributions to Democrats: $52,000.00

ok that doesnt prove over sampling.

I did prove over sampling in the post you were rude in. 7% more polled were Dems than Reps in the poll. Try reading sometime rather than just talking trash.

no you showed they got more money from democrats, without a source mind you.

thats not evidence of over sampling.

 

[jillian]

They had Obama up by 11 and he won by 7, OTOH Nate Silver/538 was off by 3. So what does that say?

nate was dead on in 2008. so i'm not sure what you're talking about.

The percentage by Obama would win the election. That is what we were discussing.

i know what you think you're referring to. but it isn't true.

 

[Plasmaball]

someone must have learned a new word!

Bravo.

you've only used it 43 times in this thread... try not to wear it out

no i haven't, maybe you need to learn how to count?

Great comeback. I yield to your mental prowess.

awesome! You didnt bring much to the table anyways....

 

[bigrebnc1775]

.

I still only care about the swing states.

Obama's ahead still in Ohio and is also over 50% there. Are there models in which Romney can win the EC without Ohio?

.

Yes there are
North Carolina Florida Virginia Colorado and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania would give Romney 281
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map

 

[depotoo]

ok that doesnt prove over sampling.

I did prove over sampling in the post you were rude in. 7% more polled were Dems than Reps in the poll. Try reading sometime rather than just talking trash.

no you showed they got more money from democrats, without a source mind you.

thats not evidence of over sampling.

I posted they polled 7% more, you responded by calling me trash. So far as the facts to that, simply click on the link in this thread for the IBD poll. And regarding the donations? Simply google political donations by the owner of IBD. It's as simple as that for those that really want to know the truth.

 

[jillian]

.

I still only care about the swing states.

Obama's ahead still in Ohio and is also over 50% there. Are there models in which Romney can win the EC without Ohio?

.

Yes there are
North Carolina Florida Virginia Colorado and New Hampshire would give Romney 281
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map

the president is ahead in new hampshire.
and it doesn't look like that will change.

 

[CaféAuLait]

nate was dead on in 2008. so i'm not sure what you're talking about.

The percentage by Obama would win the election. That is what we were discussing.

i know what you think you're referring to. but it isn't true.

He was off on his national percentage points, he was under and Gallup was over by 4 in favor of Obama winning.

 

[Cowman]

When this election is over either Gallup or Nate Silver is going to have a lot of egg on their face.

I'll bookmark this thread for you, because Nate Silver is going to get it right on the money.

I didn't say he would or wouldn't. Are you people all fucking retarded?

My point is that Gallup has numbers at one extreme and Silver has them at the other extreme so one of them is going to look very bad after this election because one of them is VERY WRONG

That's because Nate Silver doesn't operate on single fucking polls, it's an aggregate.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

.

I still only care about the swing states.

Obama's ahead still in Ohio and is also over 50% there. Are there models in which Romney can win the EC without Ohio?

.

Yes there are
North Carolina Florida Virginia Colorado and New Hampshire would give Romney 281
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map

the president is ahead in new hampshire.
and it doesn't look like that will change.

New Hampshire may be part of the New Liberal states but they are not liberal. Try to run some gun control by them and see what happens.
obama has already said he will sign an assault weapons ban. I don't think that will go very well with that state.

 

[mex]

no i haven't, maybe you need to learn how to count?

Great comeback. I yield to your mental prowess.

awesome! You didnt bring much to the table anyways....

ain't no reason to bring anything. it's only you....

 

[OODA_Loop]

Whew, good thing winning the popular vote doesn't mean you win the election. You had me worried there for a second.

You are certain the EC is going to go against the will of their respective popular electorate to retain Obama ?

 

[Numeros]

Rassmussen was spot on in '04 and '08. Their methodology is sound and they have no agenda.

Rasmussen most definitely has an agenda, their polling often skews to the right. They were off in Ohio by 4 points in the wrong direction just 4 years ago.

Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in 2008.

That "Initial Report" from Fordham is long-outdated. It was compiled the day after the election, before all ballots had been tallied. It was based on an ESTIMATE of a 6.15 point Obama win. That early estimate was wrong; Obama won by 7.28 per the FEC. A number of sources incorrectly cite this outdated, incorrect list instead of Fordham's subsequent final analysis, which found that eight pollsters were more accurate than Rasmussen.

Being new here, I'm not allowed to post direct links, but the final Fordham analysis is titled "Preelection Poll Accuracy in the 2008 General Elections." Look it up.

 

[Plasmaball]

I did prove over sampling in the post you were rude in. 7% more polled were Dems than Reps in the poll. Try reading sometime rather than just talking trash.

no you showed they got more money from democrats, without a source mind you.

thats not evidence of over sampling.

I posted they polled 7% more, you responded by calling me trash. So far as the facts to that, simply click on the link in this thread for the IBD poll. And regarding the donations? Simply google political donations by the owner of IBD. It's as simple as that for those that really want to know the truth.

no i was calling Tinydancer trash, not you. ah so you won't back up your shit, and you want me to do it..No thanks im not doing your job for you.

 

[Plasmaball]

Great comeback. I yield to your mental prowess.

awesome! You didnt bring much to the table anyways....

ain't no reason to bring anything. it's only you....

because you dont have anything to bring, i know we covered this already.

 

[CaféAuLait]

I just found this and I find it interesting:

For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)



http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

 

[depotoo]

no you showed they got more money from democrats, without a source mind you.

thats not evidence of over sampling.

I posted they polled 7% more, you responded by calling me trash. So far as the facts to that, simply click on the link in this thread for the IBD poll. And regarding the donations? Simply google political donations by the owner of IBD. It's as simple as that for those that really want to know the truth.

no i was calling Tinydancer trash, not you. ah so you won't back up your shit, and you want me to do it..No thanks im not doing your job for you.

since you seem inept in clicking on a link, here ya go -
IBD/TIPP POLL - Investors.com
Sample Size: 930 likely voters (identified from 1074 registered voters with party affiliation of 38% Dem, 31% GOP, 32% Ind.)

William O'Neil - Executive Profile

 

[Plasmaball]

I posted they polled 7% more, you responded by calling me trash. So far as the facts to that, simply click on the link in this thread for the IBD poll. And regarding the donations? Simply google political donations by the owner of IBD. It's as simple as that for those that really want to know the truth.

no i was calling Tinydancer trash, not you. ah so you won't back up your shit, and you want me to do it..No thanks im not doing your job for you.

since you seem inept in clicking on a link, here ya go -
IBD/TIPP POLL - Investors.com
Sample Size: 930 likely voters (identified from 1074 registered voters with party affiliation of 38% Dem, 31% GOP, 32% Ind.)

William O'Neil - Executive Profile

and?

 

[depotoo]

no i was calling Tinydancer trash, not you. ah so you won't back up your shit, and you want me to do it..No thanks im not doing your job for you.

since you seem inept in clicking on a link, here ya go -
IBD/TIPP POLL - Investors.com
Sample Size: 930 likely voters (identified from 1074 registered voters with party affiliation of 38% Dem, 31% GOP, 32% Ind.)

William O'Neil - Executive Profile

and?

There are none so blind as those who will not see...