Procrustes Stretched
"intuition and imagination and intelligence"
I often see people claiming any "opinion piece" carried in the pages, online, on the boob-tube, or on radio of a media organization is that organization taking a stand, pushing an agenda, etc...
Talk about low information reasoning.
Here we have A Guest Opinion piece, carried in the NYT. Titled: "I’ve Studied the Polls. Here’s Why Harris Isn’t Running Away With It." Is the NYT claiming "Harris Isn’t Running Away With It?" Think. What is happening here? I can see if it were about somebody else it would be attacked as "fake news" or the messenger would be shot. I can see some people getting upset at an opinion being aired and seeing it as undermining Harris' campaign efforts. Seeing the NYT as undermining Harris. But...
It's merely what reasonable, and rational people expect from a credible and reliable news organization to be doing as best it can -- it's job as broadcasters of ideas, information, opinions...
By Kristen Soltis Anderson
Ms. Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer, is a Republican pollster and a moderator of Opinion’s series of focus groups.
So why am I holding off on joining the “it’s over” chorus?
First, there’s not a lot of evidence that the debate helped Ms. Harris’s numbers in a meaningful way — at least not yet. ABC News/Ipsos polling showed her with a six-point lead among likely voters before the debate and showed the same result after. Her margin in several averages of national polls hovers around two points, a margin that makes the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split reasonably likely. (The analyst Nate Silver says the odds of such an outcome are around one in four.)
And if you look at the polling averages from a variety of different sources, in the seven battleground states that receive the greatest attention, the race is extremely close. Mr. Trump tends to hold a negligible lead in some of the Sun Belt tossup states, as Ms. Harris does in Wisconsin and Michigan. Neither candidate leads by more than two points in any of those states. Pennsylvania, the biggest prize of them all, consistently shows a difference in the tenths of a percentage point.
www.nytimes.com
Quite interesting piece. I tend to agree with most of what Ms. Anderson is claiming.
Talk about low information reasoning.
Here we have A Guest Opinion piece, carried in the NYT. Titled: "I’ve Studied the Polls. Here’s Why Harris Isn’t Running Away With It." Is the NYT claiming "Harris Isn’t Running Away With It?" Think. What is happening here? I can see if it were about somebody else it would be attacked as "fake news" or the messenger would be shot. I can see some people getting upset at an opinion being aired and seeing it as undermining Harris' campaign efforts. Seeing the NYT as undermining Harris. But...
It's merely what reasonable, and rational people expect from a credible and reliable news organization to be doing as best it can -- it's job as broadcasters of ideas, information, opinions...
I’ve Studied the Polls. Here’s Why Harris Isn’t Running Away With It.
Sept. 17, 2024 (Guest Opinion piece, which means you can't say "It's the NYT's" It's an opinion carried in the NYT)By Kristen Soltis Anderson
Ms. Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer, is a Republican pollster and a moderator of Opinion’s series of focus groups.
So why am I holding off on joining the “it’s over” chorus?
First, there’s not a lot of evidence that the debate helped Ms. Harris’s numbers in a meaningful way — at least not yet. ABC News/Ipsos polling showed her with a six-point lead among likely voters before the debate and showed the same result after. Her margin in several averages of national polls hovers around two points, a margin that makes the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split reasonably likely. (The analyst Nate Silver says the odds of such an outcome are around one in four.)
And if you look at the polling averages from a variety of different sources, in the seven battleground states that receive the greatest attention, the race is extremely close. Mr. Trump tends to hold a negligible lead in some of the Sun Belt tossup states, as Ms. Harris does in Wisconsin and Michigan. Neither candidate leads by more than two points in any of those states. Pennsylvania, the biggest prize of them all, consistently shows a difference in the tenths of a percentage point.
Opinion | I’ve Studied the Polls. Here’s Why Harris Isn’t Running Away With It.
Why it’s too early to join the “it’s over” chorus.
Quite interesting piece. I tend to agree with most of what Ms. Anderson is claiming.
