If Rubio drops after FL, will Cruz catch Trump?

[imawhosure]

Well, if Trump gets FL and Ohio, it is over. I have seen the path to 270 Trump has to follow, and I believe it is extremely doable, as long as he is not made out worse than Hillary, lol. But, let Trump lose either, and it is game on! If he manages to lose both, it is game over.

Why can't the drumpfodder get it through their heads that primaries have absolutely zero implication on the general election? Even if Trump wins the FL primary, he'll never take the state in the general. Nor Ohio. Trump won't even carry his home state of NY in a general. There is zero path to 207 for Trump.

I don't know how you can even say that! In a recent March head to head poll, Trump takes FL, Ohio, and Colorado from Hilly by 2, 3, and 7 points. Now, I am not going to sit here and say he is the easiest to push into the Presidency, but to try and suggest he is no doubt going to lose is not looking at the current numbers.

Still, no reason to even contemplate it until the GOP nominee is actually anointed, or becomes absolutely apparent.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The polls yesterday have Kasich down by 3 to Trump in OH and will finish a very strong second in Michigan today.

Rubio is now down by 8 to Trump in FL.

There is an entire week to go, and the anti-Trump ads are getting tougher and tougher. I am waiting for the one where is pit side betting on dog fights.

 

[SwimExpert]

Let them dream for a few months. It will help them sleep at night.

I would rather they get a clue so that we can all sleep easy for 4 years with a Republican in the White House.

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Trump Says Convention Fight Would Be Unfair

 

[JakeStarkey]

Politics is hard ball, and if Trump can't take it high and inside, he does not have the stones to be the nominee

 

[SwimExpert]

I don't know how you can even say that! In a recent March head to head poll, Trump takes FL, Ohio, and Colorado from Hilly by 2, 3, and 7 points. Now, I am not going to sit here and say he is the easiest to push into the Presidency, but to try and suggest he is no doubt going to lose is not looking at the current numbers.

Still, no reason to even contemplate it until the GOP nominee is actually anointed, or becomes absolutely apparent.

With Trump as the GOP nominee vs. Clinton, 54 percent of Americans say they’d expect Clinton to win; among registered voters (a more GOP-leaning group), Clinton has 52 percent support.

Clinton Seen as Winner in November; Trump Inspires Anxiety


You will notice not only that Trump trails Hillary by almost 3 points while Rubio leads her by almost 5, but also that Rubio has been steadily gaining ground on Hillary – he leads 12 of the last 14 polls (Hillary leads by 1 in the other two) and 15 of the last 20. Trump, by contrast, is flat-out lying when he claims to lead Hillary in every poll – out of 45 polls in RCP’s database, Trump leads Hillary in only 5, is tied in 2 others, and trails in 38 of them. Of 18 polls taken since late November, 9 show Hillary at 48 or higher; only two show Trump at 47% and one at 46. The only real variation is that some polls show more undecideds than others.

http://www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughlin/2016/03/01/vote-trump-vote-make-hillary-clinton/


Donald Trump may still be winning Republican state primaries, but Hillary Clinton has now moved ahead of him in a hypothetical presidential matchup.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that Clinton earns 41% support to Trump’s 36%. The new numbers mark a gain for Clinton who got 37% of the vote to Trump’s 36% in late December, just over a month before the Iowa caucus launched the primary process.

Those findings were nearly identical to what we found in mid-October when Trump picked up 38% support to Clinton’s 36%.

Clinton Edges Ahead of Trump in Presidential Matchup - Rasmussen Reports™


The point is that this year the likely party nominees are uniquely well-known. Their proverbial cakes have been baked – and they're inedible. Clinton sports a 40.3 percent unfavorable rating, according to the Huffington Post average of polls and a 54 percent disapproval – an ugly 14 points underwater; but that's positively glowing compared to Trump's 36.5-58.2 split, which is a yuuuge [sic] 22 points underwater.

The Main Event


In the scenario that appears most likely to emerge from the primary contests, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 44% among registered voters. That result has tilted in Clinton's favor since the last CNN/ORC Poll on the match-up in January.

Poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders both top Trump - CNNPolitics.com


Despite holding a wide lead among Republican New York voters in the race for the GOP nomination, Donald Trump would get crushed in a hypothetical general election matchup with Hillary Clinton in the state, a new poll released Monday shows.

Clinton would beat the outspoken real estate magnate in the Empire State 57% to 34%, the latest Siena Research Institute poll found.

Clinton crushes Trump in NY State in general election: poll

 

[JimH52]

Trump Says Convention Fight Would Be Unfair

I expect Trump and his demented disciples will walk out if the GOP tries to avoid granting him the nomination.

 

[SwimExpert]

Trump Says Convention Fight Would Be Unfair

I expect Trump and his demented disciples will walk out if the GOP tries to avoid granting him the nomination.

All the more reason to overtly and unashamedly hand him a screwjob.

 

[JimH52]

Trump Says Convention Fight Would Be Unfair

I expect Trump and his demented disciples will walk out if the GOP tries to avoid granting him the nomination.

All the more reason to overtly and unashamedly hand him a screwjob.

Two words....Ross Perot

 

[SwimExpert]

Trump Says Convention Fight Would Be Unfair

I expect Trump and his demented disciples will walk out if the GOP tries to avoid granting him the nomination.

All the more reason to overtly and unashamedly hand him a screwjob.

Two words....Ross Perot

No, I'm talking about a convention screw job. Purposely and publicly eject Trump from consideration, and let the trailer trash rabble supporting him go running to form their own party. It's the simplest and easiest way to rid ourselves of these undesirables.

 

[Ava]

If Rubio drops after FL, will Cruz catch Trump?

This is my hope.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

If Kasich takes OH (he was down three points this morning), he will not get out of the race.

I would love for him to take Michigan today, but probably won't happen. He'll definitely walk away with some delegates, though.

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

If Kasich takes OH (he was down three points this morning), he will not get out of the race.

I would love for him to take Michigan today, but probably won't happen. He'll definitely walk away with some delegates, though.

Pollsters find evidence of Kasich surging - From a Monmouth University Poll press release: “‘After this past weekend’s mixed bag of results, Trump appears positioned for a win in Michigan, but the race may be tightening in the final hours,’ said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. ‘Trump’s support may be dropping, while Kasich’s star could be rising.’ In interviews conducted Thursday and Friday, Trump held a solid lead with 39% support compared to 22% for Cruz, 17% for Kasich, and 14% for Rubio. The race was much tighter in Saturday and Sunday interviews at 32% for Trump, 26% for Kasich, 25% for Cruz, and 12% for Rubio.” [Monmouth]





“A vote for John Kasich, a vote for Marco Rubio, is effectively a vote for Donald Trump,” Cruz warned.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

If Kasich takes OH (he was down three points this morning), he will not get out of the race.

I would love for him to take Michigan today, but probably won't happen. He'll definitely walk away with some delegates, though.

Pollsters find evidence of Kasich surging - From a Monmouth University Poll press release: “‘After this past weekend’s mixed bag of results, Trump appears positioned for a win in Michigan, but the race may be tightening in the final hours,’ said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. ‘Trump’s support may be dropping, while Kasich’s star could be rising.’ In interviews conducted Thursday and Friday, Trump held a solid lead with 39% support compared to 22% for Cruz, 17% for Kasich, and 14% for Rubio. The race was much tighter in Saturday and Sunday interviews at 32% for Trump, 26% for Kasich, 25% for Cruz, and 12% for Rubio.” [Monmouth]

Yeah, I just don't think it will be enough for him to win the whole thing.

 

[imawhosure]

I don't know how you can even say that! In a recent March head to head poll, Trump takes FL, Ohio, and Colorado from Hilly by 2, 3, and 7 points. Now, I am not going to sit here and say he is the easiest to push into the Presidency, but to try and suggest he is no doubt going to lose is not looking at the current numbers.

Still, no reason to even contemplate it until the GOP nominee is actually anointed, or becomes absolutely apparent.

With Trump as the GOP nominee vs. Clinton, 54 percent of Americans say they’d expect Clinton to win; among registered voters (a more GOP-leaning group), Clinton has 52 percent support.

Clinton Seen as Winner in November; Trump Inspires Anxiety


You will notice not only that Trump trails Hillary by almost 3 points while Rubio leads her by almost 5, but also that Rubio has been steadily gaining ground on Hillary – he leads 12 of the last 14 polls (Hillary leads by 1 in the other two) and 15 of the last 20. Trump, by contrast, is flat-out lying when he claims to lead Hillary in every poll – out of 45 polls in RCP’s database, Trump leads Hillary in only 5, is tied in 2 others, and trails in 38 of them. Of 18 polls taken since late November, 9 show Hillary at 48 or higher; only two show Trump at 47% and one at 46. The only real variation is that some polls show more undecideds than others.

A Vote For Trump is a Vote For Hillary Clinton: Why Trump Is A Sure Loser | RedState


Donald Trump may still be winning Republican state primaries, but Hillary Clinton has now moved ahead of him in a hypothetical presidential matchup.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that Clinton earns 41% support to Trump’s 36%. The new numbers mark a gain for Clinton who got 37% of the vote to Trump’s 36% in late December, just over a month before the Iowa caucus launched the primary process.

Those findings were nearly identical to what we found in mid-October when Trump picked up 38% support to Clinton’s 36%.

Clinton Edges Ahead of Trump in Presidential Matchup - Rasmussen Reports™


The point is that this year the likely party nominees are uniquely well-known. Their proverbial cakes have been baked – and they're inedible. Clinton sports a 40.3 percent unfavorable rating, according to the Huffington Post average of polls and a 54 percent disapproval – an ugly 14 points underwater; but that's positively glowing compared to Trump's 36.5-58.2 split, which is a yuuuge [sic] 22 points underwater.

The Main Event


In the scenario that appears most likely to emerge from the primary contests, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 44% among registered voters. That result has tilted in Clinton's favor since the last CNN/ORC Poll on the match-up in January.

Poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders both top Trump - CNNPolitics.com


Despite holding a wide lead among Republican New York voters in the race for the GOP nomination, Donald Trump would get crushed in a hypothetical general election matchup with Hillary Clinton in the state, a new poll released Monday shows.

Clinton would beat the outspoken real estate magnate in the Empire State 57% to 34%, the latest Siena Research Institute poll found.

Clinton crushes Trump in NY State in general election: poll

Geeze dude, you are playing popular vote politics, instead of electoral politics. I am not interested in New York, nor California. Ronald Reagan could be reincarnated today and lose those big!

Trump has a path to electoral victory, even if 100% of the people in California, New York, and Massachusetts vote for Hillary. In essence, that is all that matters.

 

[Contumacious]

I believe the odds are slightly better than 50-50 he will as most states go to a closed primary, where Democratic voters will not be able to help Mr Trump. Now of course, that is assuming that Rubio isn't propped up by the GOP attempting everything possible to get to a brokered convention as they despise Cruz as much, or more than Trump.

As of this particular time, it appears that Cruz would beat Hillary, and the same scenario goes for Cruz as for Trump; Kasich as VP takes Ohio, Cruz makes it slightly more difficult to secure Florida, although being of Cuban descent will have it's impact there for sure.

This is the only scenario that gives the GOP a non Trump nomination, that will not send Trump supporters off the deep end, unless anyone believes that Kasich or Rubio can catch him. Send this to a brokered convention and not choose Trump if he has the most delegates, and watch all hell break loose if he is not the nominee. But if he loses fair and square, tranquility may very well be restored to the GOP ranks, although the GOP establishment will surely be grinding their teeth! And yet, they really can't complain much, since their whole shtick has been to depose Trump; it is just they couldn't get "Little Marco" in that position-)

The State of Florida is divided into two factions.

South of West Palm Beach they tend to align themselves with the "Liberal" north.

North of West Palm Beach they are pro redneck Alabama.

Trump won in Alabama so I guess he will win Florida.

.

 

[SwimExpert]

Geeze dude, you are playing popular vote politics, instead of electoral politics. I am not interested in New York, nor California. Ronald Reagan could be reincarnated today and lose those big!

Trump has a path to electoral victory, even if 100% of the people in California, New York, and Massachusetts vote for Hillary. In essence, that is all that matters.

I'm not playing "popular vote politics." Ohio and FL are where the general election will be won. Trump can't win either in a general election. Both states have moderate electorates that went blue for the past two elections. They're not going to flip red for a radical like Trump.

 

[imawhosure]

OK, whatever you say, sorry for bringing it up!

2016 Trump vs. Clinton Florida Presidential Polls

2016 Trump vs. Clinton Ohio Presidential Polls

Next question?

 

[imawhosure]

Geeze dude, you are playing popular vote politics, instead of electoral politics. I am not interested in New York, nor California. Ronald Reagan could be reincarnated today and lose those big!

Trump has a path to electoral victory, even if 100% of the people in California, New York, and Massachusetts vote for Hillary. In essence, that is all that matters.

I'm not playing "popular vote politics." Ohio and FL are where the general election will be won. Trump can't win either in a general election. Both states have moderate electorates that went blue for the past two elections. They're not going to flip red for a radical like Trump.

OK, whatever you say, sorry for bringing it up!

2016 Trump vs. Clinton Florida Presidential Polls

2016 Trump vs. Clinton Ohio Presidential Polls

Next question?

 

[Siete]

if Trump takes Florida its over.