Intrade Market Prediction

[Toro]

Intrade is predicting that the GOP will win 8 seats from the Dems, lose 1 seat to an independent, and the Dems will pick up 0 seats.

If the pediction market is correct, the Democrats will have 49 seats, the Republicans 48 seats, and 3 Independents. Two of the Independents already caucus with the Democrats. The other Independent would be Murkowski in Alaska, who presumably would caucus with the Republicans.

Republicans are expected to win the following states with Democrat incumbents - AR CO IL IN NV ND PA WI.

 

[Toro]

At 9:15pm, the odds of the Democrats winning the Senate has soared by 42 cents to 87%. Earlier in the day, it was as low as 45%.

 

[Toro]

Also at 9:15, the odds of Angle winning in Nevada has fallen to 52%, down from 70% earlier in the day.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

I would have laid out some dough on the dems keeping the senate. I predicted the R's to pick up 7.

 

[Toro]

Two more interesting markets.

The odds of Barbara Boxer winning is over 90% versus 70% a week ago, and Patty Murray in Washington has jumped from 60% to 74% today.

 

[Toro]

Generally, the odds of Democrat Senators winning have risen throughout the day. One improvement for the Republicans is in Alaska, where the odds of Miller winning have risen from 40% a few days ago to 80% today.