MarcATL
Diamond Member
- Aug 12, 2009
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14 polls from various polling organizations have Kamala Harris winning every one of them. They span the past 8 days. The most recent, from Marquette Law School, published today, has Harris up by 6.
Clearly, Trump cannot catch Harris on his own. The only way he can win is if he and the media destroy her, and I don't think there's anything there, after all these years, that can be that catastrophic.
One caveat is the quirk in our election system called the Electoral College. It's bitten us in the ass twice, so it behoves us to be weary of getting too much over our skis. We have a ton of work to do in the states that matter, and that includes Nebraska's and Maine's second districts, which choose their elector separately from the rest of the state.
If Harris wins all the states she's currently comfortably ahead in and adds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, she still needs one of those two district EC votes for 270. If not, it goes to the House by majority vote of each state delegation and it looks like Trump would win 26 to 24 in that case.
As I said, the system sucks. But, anyway, today's numbers are encouraging
National 2024 Presidential Election Polls - 270toWin
Clearly, Trump cannot catch Harris on his own. The only way he can win is if he and the media destroy her, and I don't think there's anything there, after all these years, that can be that catastrophic.
One caveat is the quirk in our election system called the Electoral College. It's bitten us in the ass twice, so it behoves us to be weary of getting too much over our skis. We have a ton of work to do in the states that matter, and that includes Nebraska's and Maine's second districts, which choose their elector separately from the rest of the state.
If Harris wins all the states she's currently comfortably ahead in and adds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, she still needs one of those two district EC votes for 270. If not, it goes to the House by majority vote of each state delegation and it looks like Trump would win 26 to 24 in that case.
As I said, the system sucks. But, anyway, today's numbers are encouraging
National 2024 Presidential Election Polls - 270toWin