"Kiss the Good Times Goodbye" - the end of the automotive era

[rightwinger]

We can't even get 100% cell phone coverage and you think we can get 100% of cars on the road to drive themselves

Nearly the whole country has cell phone coverage. Cell phones require infrastructure, self-driving cars do not. Insurance savings will pay for the self-driving feature, service charges don't pay for the cell towers in the boondocks. Go to the wizard and get a brain.

Do self driving cars rely on GPS?
The same GPS that tells people to drive into a lake or railroad tracks?

 

[Meathead]

The end of the automotive era is coming. For all the claims that terrorists will hack these vehicles and kill a hundred people, the die is cast and it will happen.

Obviously there are huge segments of our economy that will disappear or be greatly downsized. Car dealers, mechanics, auto insurance companies ect. But there are less obvious one too. What percentage of most police depts are dedicated to enforcing traffic laws? How much money is spent daily on parking fees and tickets?

Fear not! African technology so the rescue:

 

[Skull Pilot]

We can't even get 100% cell phone coverage and you think we can get 100% of cars on the road to drive themselves

Nearly the whole country has cell phone coverage. Cell phones require infrastructure, self-driving cars do not. Insurance savings will pay for the self-driving feature, service charges don't pay for the cell towers in the boondocks. Go to the wizard and get a brain.

really?

Have you ever been in the mountains or out in the desert where there is no service? I have.

And there is no way all cars will be driverless in 20 years. You need a reality check

 

[Skull Pilot]

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Numbskull, electric cars will never match refuel times of gas cars, but you think otherwise. LOL.

Electric cars will be competitive when the cost the same as gas cars.

If they cannot match the real world performance of ICE vehicles they will never be competitive.

 

[westwall]

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Interesting article.

Not really, just more hyperbole from a guy who helped run GM into the ground. In Europe he might have a point because the distances are so much less, but here in the USA he is very wrong. City dwellers will no doubt switch over, such as those in NY and LA, but the rest of the country won't be switching for a long time.

 

[westwall]

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As I see it, the internal combustion engine is already on it's way out as we speak.

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

It is having an excruciatingly slow death, it should have been gone at least 10 years ago...but there is waaaay too much $$ in the oil industry for it to go away. It will still be around at least another 20 years.

The slow development of batteries has slowed the transition

There isn't enough generating capacity in the whole world to charge just the cars in the USA if we all switched to EV's. It is a fantasy derived from delusion to "believe" that EV's are going to take over.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Need a national infrastructure to recharge cars rather than fill them with gas

yeah if you want to stop for 3 hours every 50 to 100 miles.

Their range is getting better so are quick charge capabilities. Drive for three hours and stop for lunch and your car will be recharged when you get out

And just how long will that take?

And how is the range going to be when running the heater in the winter or the AC in the summer?

And I don't know about you but I don't want to have to stop for an hour for every 3 hours I drive that is if I can even drive 3 hours at a time in an EV.

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Currently, the range for a Tesla is just over 300 miles for a single charge.

Privately owned vehicle mileage for travel from one duty station to another for travel time was figured at the rate of 350 miles/day for travel, and if you had a fraction left over that was over 100 miles, it was counted as another travel day.

You know, I could live with a 300 mile range vehicle.

Is that like the estimated mile per gallon stat that is always wrong?

In real life with the AC or the heater running, in cold temperatures, in hot temperatures, etc what is the real world range?

Volkswagen e-Golf: real-world range vs. EPA estimates over six-month test

The lowest range we saw when waiting as long as we comfortably could before plugging back in was 58 miles—during a cold snap just below 30 degrees F, with the heat and heated seats on, with most of the charge spent on the highway, at around 70 mph.

Volkswagens aren't Teslas. They are two totally different vehicles. Yeah, they are both electric, but that is about it.

It's almost like you're trying to compare a Porsche to a VW. Both use quite a bit of the same parts, both are gas powered, but the Porsche is built better and is much faster.

 

[rightwinger]

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Numbskull, electric cars will never match refuel times of gas cars, but you think otherwise. LOL.

Electric cars will be competitive when the cost the same as gas cars.

If they cannot match the real world performance of ICE vehicles they will never be competitive.

They will be better at some things worse at others

 

[Skull Pilot]

yeah if you want to stop for 3 hours every 50 to 100 miles.

Their range is getting better so are quick charge capabilities. Drive for three hours and stop for lunch and your car will be recharged when you get out

And just how long will that take?

And how is the range going to be when running the heater in the winter or the AC in the summer?

And I don't know about you but I don't want to have to stop for an hour for every 3 hours I drive that is if I can even drive 3 hours at a time in an EV.

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Currently, the range for a Tesla is just over 300 miles for a single charge.

Privately owned vehicle mileage for travel from one duty station to another for travel time was figured at the rate of 350 miles/day for travel, and if you had a fraction left over that was over 100 miles, it was counted as another travel day.

You know, I could live with a 300 mile range vehicle.

Is that like the estimated mile per gallon stat that is always wrong?

In real life with the AC or the heater running, in cold temperatures, in hot temperatures, etc what is the real world range?

Volkswagen e-Golf: real-world range vs. EPA estimates over six-month test

The lowest range we saw when waiting as long as we comfortably could before plugging back in was 58 miles—during a cold snap just below 30 degrees F, with the heat and heated seats on, with most of the charge spent on the highway, at around 70 mph.

Volkswagens aren't Teslas. They are two totally different vehicles. Yeah, they are both electric, but that is about it.

It's almost like you're trying to compare a Porsche to a VW. Both use quite a bit of the same parts, both are gas powered, but the Porsche is built better and is much faster.

I'm not talking top speed I'm talking range in real life
so give me real world performance of a Tesla.

No matter how you slice it real world driving performance will not match the company estimates.

But the model S says it only has 210 miles of range so in the real world with the heat ot AC on, 4 passengers, you can expect significantly less

The new battery option brings the Model S base price down to $66,000 from $70,000 in the US. The vehicle offers an estimated EPA-rated range of 210 miles on a single charge – up

so 70 grand for a car that won't even do 200 miles in the real world

Oh and let's niot forget that Tesla recommends only charging the battery to 90% because charging to 100% degrades the battery faster.

 

[Skull Pilot]

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Numbskull, electric cars will never match refuel times of gas cars, but you think otherwise. LOL.

Electric cars will be competitive when the cost the same as gas cars.

If they cannot match the real world performance of ICE vehicles they will never be competitive.

They will be better at some things worse at others

Like range, running the heat, the AC etc.

IOW if you're driving more than 50 miles don't bother.

 

[WinterBorn]

For those who think change doesn't happen that fast?

 

[BulletProof]

The days of young men being excited about cars has been mostly history since the 1970s.

Most people with a place to park it will always prefer to own a car/pod rather than rent rides.

Nothing much will really change in the next couple of decades except cars will be self-driving.

 

[ABikerSailor]

You know, I ride a bicycle around town for exercise, and I would much rather have someone with one of the newer cars with the radar and collision avoidance than trusting some idiot on their cell phone who has a regular car.

At least the moron in the collision avoidance car will stop even if they are tweeting on their phone. The regular car won't.

Matter of fact, a couple of years back, there was a woman who was killed riding with her bicycle group because some idiot was texting on their phone.

 

[BulletProof]

For those who think change doesn't happen that fast?

That 's right. People who think it'll take decades are naive. In five years, most new cars will be self-driving. In ten years, most cars on the road will be self-driving, and the law will require all new cars to be self-driving capable (and, to over-ride the driver in emergencies). In 20 years, manual-driving cars on the road will be a real oddity.

Electric cars will be much longer in going mainstream. They'll never have competitive sticker prices, as a fundamental law of nature (I'm not going to explain it to numbskull). Only when gas prices go through the roof will they have any chance of being competitive on price of ownership. That's at least $10/gallon.

 

[Old Rocks]

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

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Yeah, I didn't mean "out" as to disappear. I mean people still ride horses. Reliant is a good word. And it will take decades, considering electric will replace internal combustion, by attrition.....unless the government steps in, which they shouldn't.

Need a national infrastructure to recharge cars rather than fill them with gas

yeah if you want to stop for 3 hours every 50 to 100 miles.

Damned stupid statement. Roadster range per charge, 620 miles. How long before the S, X, and 3 have the same kind of range?

 

[Old Rocks]

For those who think change doesn't happen that fast?

That 's right. People who think it'll take decades are naive. In five years, most new cars will be self-driving. In ten years, most cars on the road will be self-driving, and the law will require all new cars to be self-driving capable (and, to over-ride the driver in emergencies). In 20 years, manual-driving cars on the road will be a real oddity.

Electric cars will be much longer in going mainstream. They'll never have competitive sticker prices, as a fundamental law of nature (I'm not going to explain it to numbskull). Only when gas prices go through the roof will they have any chance of being competitive on price of ownership. That's at least $10/gallon.

You are wrong. Sodium glass batteries will bring the price down to a comparable price as the ICE combination of engine, transmission, and rear end.

 

[Old Rocks]

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Numbskull, electric cars will never match refuel times of gas cars, but you think otherwise. LOL.

Electric cars will be competitive when the cost the same as gas cars.

If they cannot match the real world performance of ICE vehicles they will never be competitive.

High end luxury sedan. The S and X go head on with the high end luxury cars on price, and beat the tar out of them on handling and performance. The Roadster will be competing head on with cars costing up to a million dollars, and beating them. Musk's ambitions are to move down the price range doing exactly the same in all classes.

 

[BulletProof]

You are wrong. Sodium glass batteries will bring the price down to a comparable price as the ICE combination of engine, transmission, and rear end.

If you ever feel the need to call me wrong, you ought to be wearing a dunce cap. Battery technology may improve a great deal over the coming years, but, numbskull, electric cars will never have competitive sticker prices. Never. You're the type of idiot who thinks if you get into shape and improve how fast you can peddle a bike, eventual you'll be able to move the bike faster than light.

 

[Old Rocks]

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Numbskull, electric cars will never match refuel times of gas cars, but you think otherwise. LOL.

Electric cars will be competitive when the cost the same as gas cars.

If they cannot match the real world performance of ICE vehicles they will never be competitive.

They will be better at some things worse at others

Like range, running the heat, the AC etc.

IOW if you're driving more than 50 miles don't bother.

Here are some examples taken from the calculator:

If you turn off the Heating/AC in the previous cases, these are the results:

If we use as reference the top of the line P85D, we can see that at 50º F, turning the Heating on means decreasing your range in 37 miles. For comparison, turning the AC on at 90º F, only decreases your range by 32 miles.

https://www.quora.com/Tesla-Model-S-Which-typically-affects-range-more-air-conditioning-or-heating

So you don't like EV's. That does not excuse you being an outright liar.

 

[Windparadox]

So don't buy oneThey may never match ICE vehicles in range and will never be recharged in three minutes
But they may provide a better option for many drivers who can just plug them in at night and never have to visit a gas or recharging station.

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I tend to follow the technical info I get, not the gossip column. I also follow those who own electric vehicles here in Wisconsin and considering this states rugged winters, they get good marks. It's something I'm seriously considering investing in, this spring.