"Kiss the Good Times Goodbye" - the end of the automotive era

[DrLove]

Does no one know how to read anymore? You are the second or third person to use the "5 year" thing.

The article specifically states 20 years until this comes to pass. The ONLY place "5 years" is mentioned is for the length of time the gov't will give, once the autonomous driving is in place, to do something with your car that requires a driver.

Yes, many car enthusiasts will have to find another way to enjoy their babies. Much like fans of horseback riding did. There are plenty of places you can ride a horse or keep your own there and ride it when you want.

Thanks, i just kind of skimmed it and then bookmarked for later.

20 seems more reasonable and well; very different ...

 

[WinterBorn]

Can you imagine the savings the gov't, state and local, will have? Lower road maint costs, traffic cops almost nonexistent, signage costs dropped to minimal amounts and more. I have seen estimates for the annual costs of traffic accident

Ever know of a government to cut their budget no matter how much they reduced their spending?
They will find a way to replace the taxes that were lost.

No doubt they will. But shorter commutes, far fewer fatalities and less stress will be worth something.

 

[Desperado]

Can you imagine the savings the gov't, state and local, will have? Lower road maint costs, traffic cops almost nonexistent, signage costs dropped to minimal amounts and more. I have seen estimates for the annual costs of traffic accident

Ever know of a government to cut their budget no matter how much they reduced their spending?
They will find a way to replace the taxes that were lost.

No doubt they will. But shorter commutes, far fewer fatalities and less stress will be worth something.

You know that there was an article 10 years ago that predicted that private ownership of cars would be outlawed because car owners could not be trusted to maintain the maintenance of the pollution control devices. This seems like a continuation of that idea. Can you trust the government to control your day to day transportation? That is the a control I do not want to give up besides I enjoy cars and driving

 

[WinterBorn]

Can you imagine the savings the gov't, state and local, will have? Lower road maint costs, traffic cops almost nonexistent, signage costs dropped to minimal amounts and more. I have seen estimates for the annual costs of traffic accident

Ever know of a government to cut their budget no matter how much they reduced their spending?
They will find a way to replace the taxes that were lost.

No doubt they will. But shorter commutes, far fewer fatalities and less stress will be worth something.

You know that there was an article 10 years ago that predicted that private ownership of cars would be outlawed because car owners could not be trusted to maintain the maintenance of the pollution control devices. This seems like a continuation of that idea. Can you trust the government to control your day to day transportation? That is the a control I do not want to give up besides I enjoy cars and driving

Control? The gov't controls how fast you can drive, when you have to stop, even the minimum speed on some roads. You have to register your car with the gov't. You have to have insurance AND are required to carry proof. The gov't tells you how dark the tint on your windows can be. The gov't requires you to wear restraints. They also require you to move over if their vehicles are coming with their lights and sirens on. They even require you to move over a lane if their employees are on the shoulder with their lights going (and if you just slow down, you get a ticket that costs you $665 - don't ask). The gov't taxes your purchase of the vehicle. The gov't charges you for the tag that must be kept current. The gov't requires you to pay to have your car inspected.

It is all a racket already.

 

[Desperado]

Can you imagine the savings the gov't, state and local, will have? Lower road maint costs, traffic cops almost nonexistent, signage costs dropped to minimal amounts and more. I have seen estimates for the annual costs of traffic accident

Ever know of a government to cut their budget no matter how much they reduced their spending?
They will find a way to replace the taxes that were lost.

No doubt they will. But shorter commutes, far fewer fatalities and less stress will be worth something.

You know that there was an article 10 years ago that predicted that private ownership of cars would be outlawed because car owners could not be trusted to maintain the maintenance of the pollution control devices. This seems like a continuation of that idea. Can you trust the government to control your day to day transportation? That is the a control I do not want to give up besides I enjoy cars and driving

Control? The gov't controls how fast you can drive, when you have to stop, even the minimum speed on some roads. You have to register your car with the gov't. You have to have insurance AND are required to carry proof. The gov't tells you how dark the tint on your windows can be. The gov't requires you to wear restraints. They also require you to move over if their vehicles are coming with their lights and sirens on. They even require you to move over a lane if their employees are on the shoulder with their lights going (and if you just slow down, you get a ticket that costs you $665 - don't ask). The gov't taxes your purchase of the vehicle. The gov't charges you for the tag that must be kept current. The gov't req

Which amount to nothing, when compared when they tell you that you have 5 years to sell them to the shredder

 

[ABikerSailor]

You know, while I do think that electric cars are the wave of the future, I also think that it's going to take a bit of time for them to gain acceptance.

However.......................

There are many car manufacturers of gas powered vehicles that are currently making blind spot detection, collision avoidance and all those other things pretty much standard on their upper end vehicles.

It's just a matter of time (and probably not too much longer), that those features are put into damn near every car manufactured, and probably in the next 10 years too.

If self driving cars are going to become standard, I think the way is going to be paved by gas powered vehicles first.

 

[rightwinger]

Can’t wait for NASCAR to go driverless

 

[WinterBorn]

Can you imagine the savings the gov't, state and local, will have? Lower road maint costs, traffic cops almost nonexistent, signage costs dropped to minimal amounts and more. I have seen estimates for the annual costs of traffic accident

Ever know of a government to cut their budget no matter how much they reduced their spending?
They will find a way to replace the taxes that were lost.

No doubt they will. But shorter commutes, far fewer fatalities and less stress will be worth something.

You know that there was an article 10 years ago that predicted that private ownership of cars would be outlawed because car owners could not be trusted to maintain the maintenance of the pollution control devices. This seems like a continuation of that idea. Can you trust the government to control your day to day transportation? That is the a control I do not want to give up besides I enjoy cars and driving

Control? The gov't controls how fast you can drive, when you have to stop, even the minimum speed on some roads. You have to register your car with the gov't. You have to have insurance AND are required to carry proof. The gov't tells you how dark the tint on your windows can be. The gov't requires you to wear restraints. They also require you to move over if their vehicles are coming with their lights and sirens on. They even require you to move over a lane if their employees are on the shoulder with their lights going (and if you just slow down, you get a ticket that costs you $665 - don't ask). The gov't taxes your purchase of the vehicle. The gov't charges you for the tag that must be kept current. The gov't req

Which amount to nothing, when compared when they tell you that you have 5 years to sell them to the shredder

I don't necessarily agree that they will make us sell anything. They will just restrict the urban and suburban roads to driverless only.

 

[Skull Pilot]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

then even longer

I disagree. Many modern cars have parking assist and blind spot detection, which is just sensors watching specific areas. Cruise control has been around for decades. There are quite a few cars that will steer themselves into parking places. The technology is here, for the most part.

Acceptance will come, slowly at first, and then snowballing. It won't come to rural areas for quite a while longer than 20 years. But urban areas will have only limited areas where you can drive your car within 20 years. For the most part, the population won't have a choice. They will be sold the idea, then it will be mandatory.

That's why I think we will slowly surrender our driving
We may have self parking cars, cruise control where you allow the car to drive on the highway but take over when you get on back roads
A lot of driving decisions are spontaneous. I think I will pass that car, there is a Dunkin Doughnuts....think I'll stop for coffee, there is my buddy....think I will stop
The idea of allowing a driverless car that I don't own make all the decisions is not something I'd sign up for

I will always drive my own vehicle and I think there are more people that agree with me than with the guy who wrote that article

 

[Skull Pilot]

Ever know of a government to cut their budget no matter how much they reduced their spending?
They will find a way to replace the taxes that were lost.

No doubt they will. But shorter commutes, far fewer fatalities and less stress will be worth something.

You know that there was an article 10 years ago that predicted that private ownership of cars would be outlawed because car owners could not be trusted to maintain the maintenance of the pollution control devices. This seems like a continuation of that idea. Can you trust the government to control your day to day transportation? That is the a control I do not want to give up besides I enjoy cars and driving

Control? The gov't controls how fast you can drive, when you have to stop, even the minimum speed on some roads. You have to register your car with the gov't. You have to have insurance AND are required to carry proof. The gov't tells you how dark the tint on your windows can be. The gov't requires you to wear restraints. They also require you to move over if their vehicles are coming with their lights and sirens on. They even require you to move over a lane if their employees are on the shoulder with their lights going (and if you just slow down, you get a ticket that costs you $665 - don't ask). The gov't taxes your purchase of the vehicle. The gov't charges you for the tag that must be kept current. The gov't req

Which amount to nothing, when compared when they tell you that you have 5 years to sell them to the shredder

I don't necessarily agree that they will make us sell anything. They will just restrict the urban and suburban roads to driverless only.

It'll never happen

 

[WinterBorn]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

then even longer

I disagree. Many modern cars have parking assist and blind spot detection, which is just sensors watching specific areas. Cruise control has been around for decades. There are quite a few cars that will steer themselves into parking places. The technology is here, for the most part.

Acceptance will come, slowly at first, and then snowballing. It won't come to rural areas for quite a while longer than 20 years. But urban areas will have only limited areas where you can drive your car within 20 years. For the most part, the population won't have a choice. They will be sold the idea, then it will be mandatory.

That's why I think we will slowly surrender our driving
We may have self parking cars, cruise control where you allow the car to drive on the highway but take over when you get on back roads
A lot of driving decisions are spontaneous. I think I will pass that car, there is a Dunkin Doughnuts....think I'll stop for coffee, there is my buddy....think I will stop
The idea of allowing a driverless car that I don't own make all the decisions is not something I'd sign up for

I will always drive my own vehicle and I think there are more people that agree with me than with the guy who wrote that article

And in 20+ years you can own your own car that drives you. Or live out in the rural areas.

 

[rightwinger]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

then even longer

I disagree. Many modern cars have parking assist and blind spot detection, which is just sensors watching specific areas. Cruise control has been around for decades. There are quite a few cars that will steer themselves into parking places. The technology is here, for the most part.

Acceptance will come, slowly at first, and then snowballing. It won't come to rural areas for quite a while longer than 20 years. But urban areas will have only limited areas where you can drive your car within 20 years. For the most part, the population won't have a choice. They will be sold the idea, then it will be mandatory.

That's why I think we will slowly surrender our driving
We may have self parking cars, cruise control where you allow the car to drive on the highway but take over when you get on back roads
A lot of driving decisions are spontaneous. I think I will pass that car, there is a Dunkin Doughnuts....think I'll stop for coffee, there is my buddy....think I will stop
The idea of allowing a driverless car that I don't own make all the decisions is not something I'd sign up for

I will always drive my own vehicle and I think there are more people that agree with me than with the guy who wrote that article

I’m one of them

But if I’m 85?
Maybe

 

[ThunderKiss1965]

I don't see this happening unless the government steps in and forces people to. That's not a good thing for most Americans.

 

[Skull Pilot]

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

then even longer

I disagree. Many modern cars have parking assist and blind spot detection, which is just sensors watching specific areas. Cruise control has been around for decades. There are quite a few cars that will steer themselves into parking places. The technology is here, for the most part.

Acceptance will come, slowly at first, and then snowballing. It won't come to rural areas for quite a while longer than 20 years. But urban areas will have only limited areas where you can drive your car within 20 years. For the most part, the population won't have a choice. They will be sold the idea, then it will be mandatory.

That's why I think we will slowly surrender our driving
We may have self parking cars, cruise control where you allow the car to drive on the highway but take over when you get on back roads
A lot of driving decisions are spontaneous. I think I will pass that car, there is a Dunkin Doughnuts....think I'll stop for coffee, there is my buddy....think I will stop
The idea of allowing a driverless car that I don't own make all the decisions is not something I'd sign up for

I will always drive my own vehicle and I think there are more people that agree with me than with the guy who wrote that article

And in 20+ years you can own your own car that drives you. Or live out in the rural areas.

I will never live in a filthy city

 

[Montrovant]

I think the proposed timeframe in the article is way off. In 20 years, perhaps self-driving vehicles will be 5-10% of the total market, but I doubt much beyond that. I also wonder what people will want from such vehicles; will they require the ability to take control at the flip of a switch?

The idea that in 20 years, the majority of adults will accept giving up a personal vehicle is ludicrous. I cannot believe such a short time frame will be enough for such a massive shift in society. The comparison to horses transitioning to cars is a bad one; that was an entirely different kind of transportation, while this would be a different way to use an already existing form of transportation.

The US is a personal vehicle based society. Lowering the number of accidents will not be enough to change that. People still drink and drive, and that kills how many people every year? How much pushback has there been against seat belt laws, and helmet laws? I don't think safety is the top priority of most drivers. Giving up control of their vehicles, or giving up personal vehicles entirely, is just not something I believe a majority of Americans are looking for.

Self-driving vehicles would be great for me. Despite my being 43, I have driven very little in my life, and I'd be happy not to have to do any more. I'm pretty confident that most people do not feel the same way.

Self-driving vehicles may become a significant part of the overall vehicle population over the next 20 years, but I expect them to be personal vehicles rather than just company-owned cars, and I don't expect large percentages of people to willingly give up personal vehicle ownership.

 

[BulletProof]

Personal ownership and self-driving cars are two different issues. In 10 years, practically every car sold will be self-driving, which means in 20 years the vast majority of the cars on the road will be self-driving. And, the convenience self-driving taxis will cause a lot of people to give up car ownership.

Will people let a computer drive them? Yes, eventually, sooner than you think. When insurance rates drop, fatalities drop, and people get use to the idea, they'll transition quickly. I don't think many people over the age of 40 enjoy driving. People over 65 and under 25 are high-risk drivers. People guilty of severe driving violations will be court-ordered to use self-driving cars. Drunks will desire self-driving cars to get home safely.

Motorcycle helmets and seat belts are an inconvenience. Self-driving cars are a convenience.

 

[rightwinger]

Personal ownership and self-driving cars are two different issues. In 10 years, practically every car sold will be self-driving, which means in 20 years the vast majority of the cars on the road will be self-driving. And, the convenience self-driving taxis will cause a lot of people to give up car ownership.

Will people let a computer drive them? Yes, eventually, sooner than you think. When insurance rates drop, fatalities drop, and people get use to the idea, they'll transition quickly. I don't think many people over the age of 40 enjoy driving. People over 65 and under 25 are high-risk drivers. People guilty of severe driving violations will be court-ordered to use self-driving cars. Drunks will desire self-driving cars to get home safely.

Motorcycle helmets and seat belts are an inconvenience. Self-driving cars are a convenience.

I don't think so

 

[Likkmee]

I've had a driver for about 5 years now but I take my toys for a spin every couple weeks.....

 

[Montrovant]

Personal ownership and self-driving cars are two different issues. In 10 years, practically every car sold will be self-driving, which means in 20 years the vast majority of the cars on the road will be self-driving. And, the convenience self-driving taxis will cause a lot of people to give up car ownership.

Will people let a computer drive them? Yes, eventually, sooner than you think. When insurance rates drop, fatalities drop, and people get use to the idea, they'll transition quickly. I don't think many people over the age of 40 enjoy driving. People over 65 and under 25 are high-risk drivers. People guilty of severe driving violations will be court-ordered to use self-driving cars. Drunks will desire self-driving cars to get home safely.

Motorcycle helmets and seat belts are an inconvenience. Self-driving cars are a convenience.

10 years? That would require both for self-driving cars to be deemed safe enough for mass production, and for mass production to happen. 10 years is far too fast a time frame. As far as I'm aware, no self driving vehicles have been produced in large numbers to date. It also assumes that states will be willing to accept those autonomous cars on the roads, and won't pass any legislation hindering or preventing their use. And it further assumes that self driving cars will be competitively priced within 10 years.

While I think it's likely that, at some point, self driving vehicles will become the norm, 10 years is far too short a time for it to happen.

 

[rightwinger]

I'm still waiting on everyone to have flying cars like they promised in the 1960s