"Kiss the Good Times Goodbye" - the end of the automotive era

[Skull Pilot]

Maybe not out....but less reliant on it

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Yeah, I didn't mean "out" as to disappear. I mean people still ride horses. Reliant is a good word. And it will take decades, considering electric will replace internal combustion, by attrition.....unless the government steps in, which they shouldn't.

Need a national infrastructure to recharge cars rather than fill them with gas

yeah if you want to stop for 3 hours every 50 to 100 miles.

Damned stupid statement. Roadster range per charge, 620 miles. How long before the S, X, and 3 have the same kind of range?

Bullshit.

That roadster isn't even built yet and even if it is built it will cost 200K

Like I said run the heat or AC in extremely hot or cold weather and see what happens.

 

[Skull Pilot]

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Numbskull, electric cars will never match refuel times of gas cars, but you think otherwise. LOL.

Electric cars will be competitive when the cost the same as gas cars.

If they cannot match the real world performance of ICE vehicles they will never be competitive.

They will be better at some things worse at others

Like range, running the heat, the AC etc.

IOW if you're driving more than 50 miles don't bother.

Here are some examples taken from the calculator:

If you turn off the Heating/AC in the previous cases, these are the results:

If we use as reference the top of the line P85D, we can see that at 50º F, turning the Heating on means decreasing your range in 37 miles. For comparison, turning the AC on at 90º F, only decreases your range by 32 miles.

https://www.quora.com/Tesla-Model-S-Which-typically-affects-range-more-air-conditioning-or-heating

So you don't like EV's. That does not excuse you being an outright liar.

Again those are NOT real world numbers

Real Life Range of a 2016 Tesla Model X 75D — Steemit

The 75 kWh battery has ~65 kWh of useable energy. At 370 Wh/mi that gives us a range of 65,000 Wh / 370 Wh/mi = ~175 miles. That is real world driving. I can say driving 175 miles, the battery meter will read 0 miles.

Tesla claims 237 miles on a charge

 

[WinterBorn]

The average car owner drives 12k miles a year. Most families own more than one car.

Also, we are talking 20 years in the future. Tesla cars have only existed for 9 years.

 

[rightwinger]

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Numbskull, electric cars will never match refuel times of gas cars, but you think otherwise. LOL.

Electric cars will be competitive when the cost the same as gas cars.

If they cannot match the real world performance of ICE vehicles they will never be competitive.

They will be better at some things worse at others

Like range, running the heat, the AC etc.

IOW if you're driving more than 50 miles don't bother.

The vast majority of my daily commute is under 100 miles a day meaning most of the time I can recharge at night and have a fresh charge when I get up
I rarely drive over 200 miles

 

[WinterBorn]

As the batteries become cheaper, as technology will do, the total battery swap becomes an option. Yes, I know people will crow about spending $10k on a new set of batteries. But the cheaper batteries and the option to swap out the entire battery tray makes it easier to go longer distances.

Here is a video of the time required for an automated battery swap vs filling a car with gas.

 

[WinterBorn]

EVs will not be competitive until they can match ICE vehicles in range and refuel times in the real world

Numbskull, electric cars will never match refuel times of gas cars, but you think otherwise. LOL.

Electric cars will be competitive when the cost the same as gas cars.

If they cannot match the real world performance of ICE vehicles they will never be competitive.

They will be better at some things worse at others

Like range, running the heat, the AC etc.

IOW if you're driving more than 50 miles don't bother.

The vast majority of my daily commute is under 100 miles a day meaning most of the time I can recharge at night and have a fresh charge when I get up
I rarely drive over 200 miles

And the first mass produced EVs that were sold in any numbers had ranges of 40 to 50 miles. Now we are looking at 3 or 4 times that range, even running the heater or a/c.

 

[rightwinger]

As the batteries become cheaper, as technology will do, the total battery swap becomes an option. Yes, I know people will crow about spending $10k on a new set of batteries. But the cheaper batteries and the option to swap out the entire battery tray makes it easier to go longer distances.

Here is a video of the time required for an automated battery swap vs filling a car with gas.

I have read concepts where you don't own the batteries, you just go to a location, swap out replacements and go

 

[WinterBorn]

As the batteries become cheaper, as technology will do, the total battery swap becomes an option. Yes, I know people will crow about spending $10k on a new set of batteries. But the cheaper batteries and the option to swap out the entire battery tray makes it easier to go longer distances.

Here is a video of the time required for an automated battery swap vs filling a car with gas.

I have read concepts where you don't own the batteries, you just go to a location, swap out replacements and go

I've read that too. And the big expense in batteries is the raw materials. The battery swap gives the materials back and can be easily recycled.

 

[Skull Pilot]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

 

[rightwinger]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

 

[WinterBorn]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

The EV discussion is a sideline. The article in the OP does not mention them, per se. The point of the article, and the thread, is the move to driverless cars in urban and suburban areas.

It seems inevitable to me. And I welcome the better way. The only issue I have is the idea that it will be all fleet vehicles instead of privately owned vehicles.

 

[Skull Pilot]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

then even longer

 

[WinterBorn]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

then even longer

I disagree. Many modern cars have parking assist and blind spot detection, which is just sensors watching specific areas. Cruise control has been around for decades. There are quite a few cars that will steer themselves into parking places. The technology is here, for the most part.

Acceptance will come, slowly at first, and then snowballing. It won't come to rural areas for quite a while longer than 20 years. But urban areas will have only limited areas where you can drive your car within 20 years. For the most part, the population won't have a choice. They will be sold the idea, then it will be mandatory.

 

[Desperado]

Can you imagine the fees you will have to big time to get a ride in the future.
The government will lose out big time on gas taxes both Federal and local, not to mention license plate fees and driver's licenses. The you have to take into account the biggest money maker of them all for local governments the traffic citation. The government will not give these up easily, they will find other ways to make up the difference starting with rider user fees

 

[DrLove]

That's an interesting article but i suspect that Bob has been traveling around in black helicopters. 5 years? Meh .. he crazy, ain't gonna happen.

They'll never put people who love cars and love to drive into autonomous vehicles. Will there be more of them?

Sure - if you're driving for Uber, ya may want to polish up the resume.

Uber Strikes Deal With Volvo to Bring Self-Driving Cars to Its Network

But you'll pry my steering wheel from my cold dead hands.

 

[WinterBorn]

Can you imagine the fees you will have to big time to get a ride in the future.
The government will lose out big time on gas taxes both Federal and local, not to mention license plate fees and driver's licenses. The you have to take into account the biggest money maker of them all for local governments the traffic citation. The government will not give these up easily, they will find other ways to make up the difference starting with rider user fees

Can you imagine the savings the gov't, state and local, will have? Lower road maint costs, traffic cops almost nonexistent, signage costs dropped to minimal amounts and more. I have seen estimates for the annual costs of traffic acciden

That's an interesting article but i suspect that Bob has been traveling around in black helicopters. 5 years? Meh .. he crazy, ain't gonna happen.

They'll never put people who love cars and love to drive into autonomous vehicles. Will there be more of them?

Sure - if you're driving for Uber, ya may want to polish up the resume.

Uber Strikes Deal With Volvo to Bring Self-Driving Cars to Its Network

But you'll pry my steering wheel from my cold dead hands.

Does no one know how to read anymore? You are the second or third person to use the "5 year" thing.

The article specifically states 20 years until this comes to pass. The ONLY place "5 years" is mentioned is for the length of time the gov't will give, once the autonomous driving is in place, to do something with your car that requires a driver.

Yes, many car enthusiasts will have to find another way to enjoy their babies. Much like fans of horseback riding did. There are plenty of places you can ride a horse or keep your own there and ride it when you want.

 

[Desperado]

Can you imagine the savings the gov't, state and local, will have? Lower road maint costs, traffic cops almost nonexistent, signage costs dropped to minimal amounts and more. I have seen estimates for the annual costs of traffic accident

Ever know of a government to cut their budget no matter how much they reduced their spending?
They will find a way to replace the taxes that were lost.

 

[rightwinger]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

then even longer

I disagree. Many modern cars have parking assist and blind spot detection, which is just sensors watching specific areas. Cruise control has been around for decades. There are quite a few cars that will steer themselves into parking places. The technology is here, for the most part.

Acceptance will come, slowly at first, and then snowballing. It won't come to rural areas for quite a while longer than 20 years. But urban areas will have only limited areas where you can drive your car within 20 years. For the most part, the population won't have a choice. They will be sold the idea, then it will be mandatory.

That's why I think we will slowly surrender our driving
We may have self parking cars, cruise control where you allow the car to drive on the highway but take over when you get on back roads
A lot of driving decisions are spontaneous. I think I will pass that car, there is a Dunkin Doughnuts....think I'll stop for coffee, there is my buddy....think I will stop
The idea of allowing a driverless car that I don't own make all the decisions is not something I'd sign up for

 

[WinterBorn]

EVs are 1% of the market.

It's going to take a hell of a lot more than 20 years to even get to 50% of the market.

I think the OP is talking about self driving cars rather than EVs

then even longer

I disagree. Many modern cars have parking assist and blind spot detection, which is just sensors watching specific areas. Cruise control has been around for decades. There are quite a few cars that will steer themselves into parking places. The technology is here, for the most part.

Acceptance will come, slowly at first, and then snowballing. It won't come to rural areas for quite a while longer than 20 years. But urban areas will have only limited areas where you can drive your car within 20 years. For the most part, the population won't have a choice. They will be sold the idea, then it will be mandatory.

That's why I think we will slowly surrender our driving
We may have self parking cars, cruise control where you allow the car to drive on the highway but take over when you get on back roads
A lot of driving decisions are spontaneous. I think I will pass that car, there is a Dunkin Doughnuts....think I'll stop for coffee, there is my buddy....think I will stop
The idea of allowing a driverless car that I don't own make all the decisions is not something I'd sign up for

You will still make the decisions on destination and any impromptu stops.

Besides, the control you have is minimal already.

 

[rightwinger]

That's an interesting article but i suspect that Bob has been traveling around in black helicopters. 5 years? Meh .. he crazy, ain't gonna happen.

They'll never put people who love cars and love to drive into autonomous vehicles. Will there be more of them?

Sure - if you're driving for Uber, ya may want to polish up the resume.

Uber Strikes Deal With Volvo to Bring Self-Driving Cars to Its Network

But you'll pry my steering wheel from my cold dead hands.

It's like Alexa

Some people love it, some think it is stupid