Lets Take a close Look At Virginia Votes and Read the Tea Leaves

[JimBowie1958]

OK, so Clinton won this state by 5% or 228k votes. The polls got this one spot on based on the RealClearPolitics average.

Republican voters went down by about 50k and Democrats went up by 10k from 2012 to 2016.

Current projections give Biden an edge of 4% to 11% in state polls.

But a look at the early voter and mail in voter counts, this might not be as certain as the pollsters think.

In Person	1,854,492
Mail	718,636

The early voters are typically more Republican voters and mail-in is more Democrat, and this would seem to suggest that Republicans have an early lead in Virginia.

If this is true, this is huge good news for Republicans.

But I dont feel comfortable with this as it would indicate a tidal red wave of just seemingly implausible proportions.

What do you think?

 

[candycorn]

A lot closer than the polling shows.

 

[Oddball]

The Beltway bureaucratic swamp things have a stranglehold on the state.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

OK, so Clinton won this state by 5% or 228k votes. The polls got this one spot on based on the RealClearPolitics average.

Republican voters went down by about 50k and Democrats went up by 10k from 2012 to 2016.

Current projections give Biden an edge of 4% to 11% in state polls.

But a look at the early voter and mail in voter counts, this might not be as certain as the pollsters think.

In Person	1,854,492
Mail	718,636

The early voters are typically more Republican voters and mail-in is more Democrat, and this would seem to suggest that Republicans have an early lead in Virginia.

If this is true, this is huge good news for Republicans.

But I dont feel comfortable with this as it would indicate a tidal red wave of just seemingly implausible proportions.

What do you think?

It will be close. The margins are narrowing...as they've done in just about every election since 1984.
Registering as Republican or Democrat isn't an indicator here. Both could vote for either.

 

[JimBowie1958]

The Beltway bureaucratic swamp things have a stranglehold on the state.

But the state legislature's actions and the near gun ban that was considered, I think woke a whole bunch of Bubbas up to go and vote so they can still go huntin'.

Governor Klan Face may have reawakened Virginia's conservative majority.

 

[Oddball]

The Beltway bureaucratic swamp things have a stranglehold on the state.

But the state legislature's actions and the near gun ban that was considered, I think woke a whole bunch of Bubbas up to go and vote so they can still go huntin'.

Governor Klan Face may have reawakened Virginia's conservative majority.

Could be....But that's going to take a shit ton of downstate Bubbas.

If Trump wins there, all bets are off in every swing state.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

OK, so Clinton won this state by 5% or 228k votes. The polls got this one spot on based on the RealClearPolitics average.

Republican voters went down by about 50k and Democrats went up by 10k from 2012 to 2016.

Current projections give Biden an edge of 4% to 11% in state polls.

But a look at the early voter and mail in voter counts, this might not be as certain as the pollsters think.

In Person	1,854,492
Mail	718,636

The early voters are typically more Republican voters and mail-in is more Democrat, and this would seem to suggest that Republicans have an early lead in Virginia.

If this is true, this is huge good news for Republicans.

But I dont feel comfortable with this as it would indicate a tidal red wave of just seemingly implausible proportions.

What do you think?

Fold DC back into MD

 

[JimBowie1958]

If Trump wins there, all bets are off in every swing state.

That is what makes me nervous even thinking about it.

Can Trump be about to win a Reagan-Mondale 40+ state victory? Is California actually in play?

ROFLMAO I cannot handle that thought

 

[JimBowie1958]

Got this message on FB


BREAKING NEWS: VIRGINIA COULD BE IN PLAY TOMORROW!
Target Smart, a Democrat-leaning election data firm, has reported its analysis of early voters -- and its projection of who will vote on Election Day. It has concluded:
President Trump can win Virginia.

Target Smart provides the following data for Virginia:

Early Voting through 10/30/2020: 2,292,289+ ballots cast
DEM: 1,109,287 (48.4%); REP: 872,623 (38.1%); Other: 310,379 (13.5%)

Of estimated total turnout in Virginia, based on past performance, 53% have already voted, leaving 46% to vote on Election Day with 1% no opinion.
Voters left to vote on Election Day: REP 55% DEM 30%; IND 15%

Election Day Voters Preference: Trump 59% Biden 35% Jorgensen 4% (Libertarian).

In short, Target Smart concludes that President Trump is looking at a four-point lead in Virginia IF he gets a solid Republican turnout.

WOULD YOU LIKE SOME CONFIRMATION OF THIS GOOD NEWS?

A nationwide analysis of CBS polling showing that President Trump has a 30 point advantage over Biden among Election Day voters, enough for 279 electoral votes, nine votes more than needed to win the Electoral Vote.

WE NEED INTENSE GET-OUT-THE-VOTE effort TODAY AND TOMORROW!
This news should be spread far and wide --- to counter the Mainstream Media lies that Biden has big leads over Trump, which is being spread to suppress GOP Turnout.
PLEASE CIRCULATE THIS GOOD NEWS FAR AND WIDE. URGE ALL FRIENDS AND FAMILY WHO SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT, or who support the Second Amendment, or pro-life, or conservative values TO GET OUT TOMORROW AND VOTE FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP.
BE ENCOURAGED, NOT COMPLACENT! PRAY and DON’T LET ANY POSSIBLE VOTE FOR THE PRESIDENT BE IGNORED!

Bob Marshall, Member,
Virginia House of Delegates
Member 26 years