Oldstyle
Platinum Member
- Jul 19, 2011
- 31,206
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Jobs Created can be measured..it's simply the positive change in the jobs level (and jobs are not the same as employment). And jobs lost is the negative change in the jobs level. But jobs saved is the number of jobs that (theoretically) would have been lost, but weren't. You can't objectively measure that. You can attribute fewer jobs lost to a political policy or an externality etc, but those are estimates based on deviation from a prediction.So, Pinqy, here is what I remember. From a long time ago, in the late 1960's and early 70's labor economics classes and macro economics classes. Employment was always the biggest single issue to measure the economic well being. Yes, deficit was important, but smaller then and it only got better with high employment. And yes, GNP was important, but tended to follow employment levels.Rshermr...has been attempting to polish this turd for a week now and it's shiny but it's still a turd.
As I've said all along...there is only one reason for coming up with a new economic statistic...jobs saved...that's what you do when your stimulus failed to create the jobs that you predicted and you need to muddy the issue. The Obama Administration did just that...and a compliant main stream media let them get away with it.
So, creation of jobs and full employment was important. But those few times that employment levels were bad, say over 7%, there were concerns and discussions of how to save jobs. Because, jobs saved was equal to jobs created as far as unemployment was concerned. From an economic policy, it was as important to stop job losses as it was to create new jobs.
That can be useful when evaluating policy, but it's not statistics and it's not the job of a statistical agency.
I don't see how it could be a regularly published number. The problem with "jobs saved" is that you can neither confirm nor refute it as it's purely hypothetical. That's the problem with projections and predictions...for example the Obama administration projected that without the stimulus the UE rate would go over 10% and with it would stay under 8%. Well, in reality it reached 10% and took a while to get below 8%. So were the initial projections off, or was the effect of the stimulus less than expected, or both? You can't MEASURE it, only theorize based on known factors.So I remember even 50 years ago discussing jobs saved as a periodic number. I do not remember where it was kept track of, but obviously the CBO did not exist, so it was not them. Todays attack on the jobs saved number is to me stupid. Both saved and created need to be taken into account, and both need to be part of economic policy.
It is perfectly legitimate to claim "jobs saved" in cases like the auto industry bailout (though it's not possible to know what would have happened). But to try to put a precise number and equate it with the actual measurement of new jobs is a little sketchy.For example, losing the auto industry would have cost jobs. We can argue the number, but "experts" seem to agree it was over 1M jobs. Experts also pretty much universally agree that not saving that industry may well have moved us into a depression. So, we can all argue the point, but the reasoning is obviously sound. Ignoring jobs saved and job saving opportunities is just plain stupid.
I'm not even going to bother wasting my time putting this type of question to Rshermr...but you seem to be fairly intelligent so I'll put it to you. Rshermr seems to believe that we would have lost over "1 million jobs" if we hadn't "saved" GM and Chrysler with the auto bailout. I believe that number is absurdly inflated and that very few jobs would have been lost if GM and Chrysler had simply filed bankruptcy and reorganized. What WOULD have been lost is the contracts between the car makers and the UAW.
The 1 million dollar number is rather amusing since GM has about 280,000 people TOTAL working for them in the US and Chrysler has 59,000.