StatesPoll
Member
- Dec 27, 2015
- 41
- 7
Minnesota is obvious becoming Swing State, even could become Red State?
Normally, Minnesota was considered as a Blue states. because of last 2 elections outcomes.
2008 Obama 54% Mccain 44% (Margin Democrat +10%)
2012 Obama 54% Romney 45% (Margin Democrat +9%)
But, Let’s take the look about latest Poll in Minnesota.
Survey USA Minnesota poll (October 29th-November 2nd 2015. 516RV)
KSTP/SurveyUSA: Clinton Trails 4 of 6 GOP Candidates in Minnesota
TRUMP 45% | Hillary 42% Carson 50% | Hillary 41%
wow! GOP makes the lead.
How come this is possible?
1. first Let’s take the look of Demographic of Minnesota(2014)
Minnesota QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
White 81.4% | Black 5.9% | Hispanic 5.1% | Asian 4.7% | American Indian 1.3%
But with Actual influence votes shares depend on Racial voting rate.
White 86.5% |Black 6.5% | Hispanic 3% | Asian 3% | American Indian 1.5%
2. My Analysis depend on Demographic
1) as you see above White influence is very strong in Minnesota.
I guess White people in Minnesota they become lean to GOP with Terrorism &Immgration Issues. in 2012 Romney got 49% from the white from Minnesota. But nowadays it seems to exceed 55% White supports from Minnesota.
2) Mid Term Election 2014 48% Asian voted for GOP. Nowadays TRUMP is making 5:5 on Asian (not like romney did 27 : 73 to Obama.)
3) Black&Hispanic Population is quite low in Minnesota.
3. Calculation. (It proves GOP just needs 52.5%+ Whites support to Win)
(if GOP gets Supports from the race, White 52.5% Black 10%,Hispanic 30%, Asian 50%, American Indian 50%)
White vote shares 86.5% x 52.5%(supports)= 45.41%
Black vote shares 6.5% x 10%(supports) = 0.65%
Hispanic vote shares 3% x 30%(supports) = 0.9%
Asian&American indian vote shares 4.5% x 50%(supports) = 2.25%
Total 49.21% (to win Minnesota, in 2012 3rd candidates gathered 2.4% so need 48.8%+ = (100-2.4)/2
I guess GOP going to taking Minnesota for almost sure in Election 2016.
Normally, Minnesota was considered as a Blue states. because of last 2 elections outcomes.
2008 Obama 54% Mccain 44% (Margin Democrat +10%)
2012 Obama 54% Romney 45% (Margin Democrat +9%)
But, Let’s take the look about latest Poll in Minnesota.
Survey USA Minnesota poll (October 29th-November 2nd 2015. 516RV)
KSTP/SurveyUSA: Clinton Trails 4 of 6 GOP Candidates in Minnesota
TRUMP 45% | Hillary 42% Carson 50% | Hillary 41%
wow! GOP makes the lead.
How come this is possible?
1. first Let’s take the look of Demographic of Minnesota(2014)
Minnesota QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
White 81.4% | Black 5.9% | Hispanic 5.1% | Asian 4.7% | American Indian 1.3%
But with Actual influence votes shares depend on Racial voting rate.
White 86.5% |Black 6.5% | Hispanic 3% | Asian 3% | American Indian 1.5%
2. My Analysis depend on Demographic
1) as you see above White influence is very strong in Minnesota.
I guess White people in Minnesota they become lean to GOP with Terrorism &Immgration Issues. in 2012 Romney got 49% from the white from Minnesota. But nowadays it seems to exceed 55% White supports from Minnesota.
2) Mid Term Election 2014 48% Asian voted for GOP. Nowadays TRUMP is making 5:5 on Asian (not like romney did 27 : 73 to Obama.)
3) Black&Hispanic Population is quite low in Minnesota.
3. Calculation. (It proves GOP just needs 52.5%+ Whites support to Win)
(if GOP gets Supports from the race, White 52.5% Black 10%,Hispanic 30%, Asian 50%, American Indian 50%)
White vote shares 86.5% x 52.5%(supports)= 45.41%
Black vote shares 6.5% x 10%(supports) = 0.65%
Hispanic vote shares 3% x 30%(supports) = 0.9%
Asian&American indian vote shares 4.5% x 50%(supports) = 2.25%
Total 49.21% (to win Minnesota, in 2012 3rd candidates gathered 2.4% so need 48.8%+ = (100-2.4)/2
I guess GOP going to taking Minnesota for almost sure in Election 2016.
Loserterians like you are about to get kicked in the ass!
