Nate Silver: Hillary's Lead Keeps Shrinking

[candycorn]

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently, 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Yeah and if Cankles coughs up a lung? LMAO

The more scandal comes out about Hillary the more Democrats will start eying Johnson as a more preferable candidate.

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

Comparatively speaking, Trump is an honorable candidate.

And you are completely WRONG about the 'GOP' running Trump. The 'GOP' wanted nothing to do with Trump. The last thing Washington Insider GOP wanted was some outsider who is actually listening to the American people stepping in and upsetting their status-quo apple-cart. You want to give credit to anyone for Trump being where he is, blame the American people tired of corrupt, criminal, self-appointed ruling class politicians - like Hillary - who have elevated themselves above the Constitution and law.

While lefties on this board are not in a panic, many Democrats in the know are.

And why is that? ANSWER---------->Because all of the polls, or virtually all of the polls, are taken the same, exact, way. Do you know why when they report a poll, it is 99 times out of a 100 called "likely" voters? Because pollsters look into the rolls and see who has consistently voted. In other words---------->for President, mid terms, etc. The more they have voted, the more they are coveted as "likely" voters. So what you are actually seeing in the polls is a closing in numbers between the two candidates, of "likely" voters; which is all well and good.

Now for why the Dems in the know are sweating! Because the NEW voters that signed up because of Trump during the primaries and after, aren't even counted; reason being they are seen as "not likely" in the survey. It is sort of the reverse of what happened in 12 when the polls showed the race very, very, close; or Romney slightly ahead. The newly signed up college kids weren't seen as likely, so they were never polled. All the pollsters could do was give best guess on them, but could not add them to their hard numbers, because to do so would be to inject opinion, in a hard numbers poll. As more than one congressional candidate has stated, they asked their team for what is called "number 4 voters" (those who vote regularly) that they could go door to door and glad hand in Florida, and Ohio. To their amazement, almost all of the lawn signs that had "Trump" in the yard, were not on the house list to knock on the door, meaning Trump is certainly underperforming in the polls, as many of his supporters are not on the number 4, or likely voters list, thus not polled by the pollsters.

Now does that mean he is going to win? No! But what it does mean is that his support in many areas, is far deeper and wider than the polls would show, or that the lefties on here would be amazed to discover. Just as Obama underperformed in 12 in polls, so will Trump, it just is what it is. And both of them will show underperformance, for exactly the same reason, just different people.

Obama lead in every poll except a few outliers in 2012.

You simply do not know what you’re talking about.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently, 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Yeah and if Cankles coughs up a lung? LMAO

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

Comparatively speaking, Trump is an honorable candidate.

And you are completely WRONG about the 'GOP' running Trump. The 'GOP' wanted nothing to do with Trump. The last thing Washington Insider GOP wanted was some outsider who is actually listening to the American people stepping in and upsetting their status-quo apple-cart. You want to give credit to anyone for Trump being where he is, blame the American people tired of corrupt, criminal, self-appointed ruling class politicians - like Hillary - who have elevated themselves above the Constitution and law.

While lefties on this board are not in a panic, many Democrats in the know are.

And why is that? ANSWER---------->Because all of the polls, or virtually all of the polls, are taken the same, exact, way. Do you know why when they report a poll, it is 99 times out of a 100 called "likely" voters? Because pollsters look into the rolls and see who has consistently voted. In other words---------->for President, mid terms, etc. The more they have voted, the more they are coveted as "likely" voters. So what you are actually seeing in the polls is a closing in numbers between the two candidates, of "likely" voters; which is all well and good.

Now for why the Dems in the know are sweating! Because the NEW voters that signed up because of Trump during the primaries and after, aren't even counted; reason being they are seen as "not likely" in the survey. It is sort of the reverse of what happened in 12 when the polls showed the race very, very, close; or Romney slightly ahead. The newly signed up college kids weren't seen as likely, so they were never polled. All the pollsters could do was give best guess on them, but could not add them to their hard numbers, because to do so would be to inject opinion, in a hard numbers poll. As more than one congressional candidate has stated, they asked their team for what is called "number 4 voters" (those who vote regularly) that they could go door to door and glad hand in Florida, and Ohio. To their amazement, almost all of the lawn signs that had "Trump" in the yard, were not on the house list to knock on the door, meaning Trump is certainly underperforming in the polls, as many of his supporters are not on the number 4, or likely voters list, thus not polled by the pollsters.

Now does that mean he is going to win? No! But what it does mean is that his support in many areas, is far deeper and wider than the polls would show, or that the lefties on here would be amazed to discover. Just as Obama underperformed in 12 in polls, so will Trump, it just is what it is. And both of them will show underperformance, for exactly the same reason, just different people.

Obama lead in every poll except a few outliers in 2012.

You simply do not know what you’re talking about.

The dem drone opines about others not knowing what they are talking about. Nobody takes your rambling serious, Corny

 

[candycorn]

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

Again, she is not leading in all polls and is dropping in nearly every poll. LMAO

 

[bendog]

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently, 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Yeah and if Cankles coughs up a lung? LMAO

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

Comparatively speaking, Trump is an honorable candidate.

And you are completely WRONG about the 'GOP' running Trump. The 'GOP' wanted nothing to do with Trump. The last thing Washington Insider GOP wanted was some outsider who is actually listening to the American people stepping in and upsetting their status-quo apple-cart. You want to give credit to anyone for Trump being where he is, blame the American people tired of corrupt, criminal, self-appointed ruling class politicians - like Hillary - who have elevated themselves above the Constitution and law.

While lefties on this board are not in a panic, many Democrats in the know are.

And why is that? ANSWER---------->Because all of the polls, or virtually all of the polls, are taken the same, exact, way. Do you know why when they report a poll, it is 99 times out of a 100 called "likely" voters? Because pollsters look into the rolls and see who has consistently voted. In other words---------->for President, mid terms, etc. The more they have voted, the more they are coveted as "likely" voters. So what you are actually seeing in the polls is a closing in numbers between the two candidates, of "likely" voters; which is all well and good.

Now for why the Dems in the know are sweating! Because the NEW voters that signed up because of Trump during the primaries and after, aren't even counted; reason being they are seen as "not likely" in the survey. It is sort of the reverse of what happened in 12 when the polls showed the race very, very, close; or Romney slightly ahead. The newly signed up college kids weren't seen as likely, so they were never polled. All the pollsters could do was give best guess on them, but could not add them to their hard numbers, because to do so would be to inject opinion, in a hard numbers poll. As more than one congressional candidate has stated, they asked their team for what is called "number 4 voters" (those who vote regularly) that they could go door to door and glad hand in Florida, and Ohio. To their amazement, almost all of the lawn signs that had "Trump" in the yard, were not on the house list to knock on the door, meaning Trump is certainly underperforming in the polls, as many of his supporters are not on the number 4, or likely voters list, thus not polled by the pollsters.

Now does that mean he is going to win? No! But what it does mean is that his support in many areas, is far deeper and wider than the polls would show, or that the lefties on here would be amazed to discover. Just as Obama underperformed in 12 in polls, so will Trump, it just is what it is. And both of them will show underperformance, for exactly the same reason, just different people.

Obama lead in every poll except a few outliers in 2012.

You simply do not know what you’re talking about.

Except for the outliers, Trump continues to top at 40%.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Hillary is a horrible candidate, but the MSM is punishing her over her lack of transparency in the email saga. They simply don't like any candidate using their market share to deny basic facts. Not that she's a victim. But they are not going to just give her a narrative. If Trump goes off again, then he's shiny object again. If not, it's on to the debates for a new shiny object.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently, 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Yeah and if Cankles coughs up a lung? LMAO

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

Comparatively speaking, Trump is an honorable candidate.

And you are completely WRONG about the 'GOP' running Trump. The 'GOP' wanted nothing to do with Trump. The last thing Washington Insider GOP wanted was some outsider who is actually listening to the American people stepping in and upsetting their status-quo apple-cart. You want to give credit to anyone for Trump being where he is, blame the American people tired of corrupt, criminal, self-appointed ruling class politicians - like Hillary - who have elevated themselves above the Constitution and law.

While lefties on this board are not in a panic, many Democrats in the know are.

And why is that? ANSWER---------->Because all of the polls, or virtually all of the polls, are taken the same, exact, way. Do you know why when they report a poll, it is 99 times out of a 100 called "likely" voters? Because pollsters look into the rolls and see who has consistently voted. In other words---------->for President, mid terms, etc. The more they have voted, the more they are coveted as "likely" voters. So what you are actually seeing in the polls is a closing in numbers between the two candidates, of "likely" voters; which is all well and good.

Now for why the Dems in the know are sweating! Because the NEW voters that signed up because of Trump during the primaries and after, aren't even counted; reason being they are seen as "not likely" in the survey. It is sort of the reverse of what happened in 12 when the polls showed the race very, very, close; or Romney slightly ahead. The newly signed up college kids weren't seen as likely, so they were never polled. All the pollsters could do was give best guess on them, but could not add them to their hard numbers, because to do so would be to inject opinion, in a hard numbers poll. As more than one congressional candidate has stated, they asked their team for what is called "number 4 voters" (those who vote regularly) that they could go door to door and glad hand in Florida, and Ohio. To their amazement, almost all of the lawn signs that had "Trump" in the yard, were not on the house list to knock on the door, meaning Trump is certainly underperforming in the polls, as many of his supporters are not on the number 4, or likely voters list, thus not polled by the pollsters.

Now does that mean he is going to win? No! But what it does mean is that his support in many areas, is far deeper and wider than the polls would show, or that the lefties on here would be amazed to discover. Just as Obama underperformed in 12 in polls, so will Trump, it just is what it is. And both of them will show underperformance, for exactly the same reason, just different people.

Obama lead in every poll except a few outliers in 2012.

You simply do not know what you’re talking about.

Except for the outliers, Trump continues to top at 40%.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Hillary is a horrible candidate, but the MSM is punishing her over her lack of transparency in the email saga. They simply don't like any candidate using their market share to deny basic facts. Not that she's a victim. But they are not going to just give her a narrative. If Trump goes off again, then he's shiny object again. If not, it's on to the debates for a new shiny object.

Just poking around the Internet shows people are questioning Clinton's health....it's going to be a huge part of it and if she continues these coughing fits or has another attack on camera she's finished

 

[imawhosure]

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently, 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Yeah and if Cankles coughs up a lung? LMAO

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

Comparatively speaking, Trump is an honorable candidate.

And you are completely WRONG about the 'GOP' running Trump. The 'GOP' wanted nothing to do with Trump. The last thing Washington Insider GOP wanted was some outsider who is actually listening to the American people stepping in and upsetting their status-quo apple-cart. You want to give credit to anyone for Trump being where he is, blame the American people tired of corrupt, criminal, self-appointed ruling class politicians - like Hillary - who have elevated themselves above the Constitution and law.

While lefties on this board are not in a panic, many Democrats in the know are.

And why is that? ANSWER---------->Because all of the polls, or virtually all of the polls, are taken the same, exact, way. Do you know why when they report a poll, it is 99 times out of a 100 called "likely" voters? Because pollsters look into the rolls and see who has consistently voted. In other words---------->for President, mid terms, etc. The more they have voted, the more they are coveted as "likely" voters. So what you are actually seeing in the polls is a closing in numbers between the two candidates, of "likely" voters; which is all well and good.

Now for why the Dems in the know are sweating! Because the NEW voters that signed up because of Trump during the primaries and after, aren't even counted; reason being they are seen as "not likely" in the survey. It is sort of the reverse of what happened in 12 when the polls showed the race very, very, close; or Romney slightly ahead. The newly signed up college kids weren't seen as likely, so they were never polled. All the pollsters could do was give best guess on them, but could not add them to their hard numbers, because to do so would be to inject opinion, in a hard numbers poll. As more than one congressional candidate has stated, they asked their team for what is called "number 4 voters" (those who vote regularly) that they could go door to door and glad hand in Florida, and Ohio. To their amazement, almost all of the lawn signs that had "Trump" in the yard, were not on the house list to knock on the door, meaning Trump is certainly underperforming in the polls, as many of his supporters are not on the number 4, or likely voters list, thus not polled by the pollsters.

Now does that mean he is going to win? No! But what it does mean is that his support in many areas, is far deeper and wider than the polls would show, or that the lefties on here would be amazed to discover. Just as Obama underperformed in 12 in polls, so will Trump, it just is what it is. And both of them will show underperformance, for exactly the same reason, just different people.

Obama lead in every poll except a few outliers in 2012.

You simply do not know what you’re talking about.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

Again, she is not leading in all polls and is dropping in nearly every poll. LMAO

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently, 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Yeah and if Cankles coughs up a lung? LMAO

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

Comparatively speaking, Trump is an honorable candidate.

And you are completely WRONG about the 'GOP' running Trump. The 'GOP' wanted nothing to do with Trump. The last thing Washington Insider GOP wanted was some outsider who is actually listening to the American people stepping in and upsetting their status-quo apple-cart. You want to give credit to anyone for Trump being where he is, blame the American people tired of corrupt, criminal, self-appointed ruling class politicians - like Hillary - who have elevated themselves above the Constitution and law.

While lefties on this board are not in a panic, many Democrats in the know are.

And why is that? ANSWER---------->Because all of the polls, or virtually all of the polls, are taken the same, exact, way. Do you know why when they report a poll, it is 99 times out of a 100 called "likely" voters? Because pollsters look into the rolls and see who has consistently voted. In other words---------->for President, mid terms, etc. The more they have voted, the more they are coveted as "likely" voters. So what you are actually seeing in the polls is a closing in numbers between the two candidates, of "likely" voters; which is all well and good.

Now for why the Dems in the know are sweating! Because the NEW voters that signed up because of Trump during the primaries and after, aren't even counted; reason being they are seen as "not likely" in the survey. It is sort of the reverse of what happened in 12 when the polls showed the race very, very, close; or Romney slightly ahead. The newly signed up college kids weren't seen as likely, so they were never polled. All the pollsters could do was give best guess on them, but could not add them to their hard numbers, because to do so would be to inject opinion, in a hard numbers poll. As more than one congressional candidate has stated, they asked their team for what is called "number 4 voters" (those who vote regularly) that they could go door to door and glad hand in Florida, and Ohio. To their amazement, almost all of the lawn signs that had "Trump" in the yard, were not on the house list to knock on the door, meaning Trump is certainly underperforming in the polls, as many of his supporters are not on the number 4, or likely voters list, thus not polled by the pollsters.

Now does that mean he is going to win? No! But what it does mean is that his support in many areas, is far deeper and wider than the polls would show, or that the lefties on here would be amazed to discover. Just as Obama underperformed in 12 in polls, so will Trump, it just is what it is. And both of them will show underperformance, for exactly the same reason, just different people.

Obama lead in every poll except a few outliers in 2012.

You simply do not know what you’re talking about.

Except for the outliers, Trump continues to top at 40%.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Hillary is a horrible candidate, but the MSM is punishing her over her lack of transparency in the email saga. They simply don't like any candidate using their market share to deny basic facts. Not that she's a victim. But they are not going to just give her a narrative. If Trump goes off again, then he's shiny object again. If not, it's on to the debates for a new shiny object.

It is what it is Corn. You don't believe, check it for yourself! Do you live in an area where there are any Trump signs? If so, just walk into either party's office, and ask for a list of number 4 voters, then look for a couple of homes that have Trump signs. More than likely, they are not on the coveted "likely voters" list, ergo why the polls are not as exact as you think.

Here, instead, try this--------------> Use your own noggin and ask yourself an easy question.................how many American polling company's polled in the UK about Brexit? What was their astute conclusion using the same methodology of "likely voters?" They assumed (and it usually holds true) that the pulse of the nation could be taken by those who usually vote most of the time, as those who usually do not vote, would as usual; not vote on the matter. How did that work out for the pollsters who were certain that Brexit would be defeated in virtually every poll! And do not even say it was the UK, because the polling data was taken by virtually the same firms that are doing it here.

You have to understand.................Hillary and her numbers as far as support are pretty accurate because she is a standard Democrat. If the Pubs were running a standard Repub, then your observation would be accurate. But if you use your noggin again, ask yourself another question------------>how did Trump get more votes than any other Pub candidate ever, when 40% of the Pubs really don't like him? Who then gave him all those votes? If you notice, he got massive amounts of votes in open primaries, and don't even try and suggest that a dem would waste their vote to push him in, when Hillary and Bernie were fighting tooth and nail for the Dem nomination.

The problem that Hillary has is that her numbers are based on her Democratic support. While yes, Trumps support is also based on Pub support, the polls do not reflect voters who are not number 4s. If it is this close amongst likely voters, if I was a Democrat, I would be sweating bullets too, not knowing how big a voting bloc that is not counted because they signed up recently, is for the opposition.

 

[candycorn]

It is what it is Corn. You don't believe, check it for yourself! Do you live in an area where there are any Trump signs? If so, just walk into either party's office, and ask for a list of number 4 voters, then look for a couple of homes that have Trump signs. More than likely, they are not on the coveted "likely voters" list, ergo why the polls are not as exact as you think.

Here, instead, try this--------------> Use your own noggin and ask yourself an easy question.................how many American polling company's polled in the UK about Brexit? What was their astute conclusion using the same methodology of "likely voters?" They assumed (and it usually holds true) that the pulse of the nation could be taken by those who usually vote most of the time, as those who usually do not vote, would as usual; not vote on the matter. How did that work out for the pollsters who were certain that Brexit would be defeated in virtually every poll! And do not even say it was the UK, because the polling data was taken by virtually the same firms that are doing it here.

You have to understand.................Hillary and her numbers as far as support are pretty accurate because she is a standard Democrat. If the Pubs were running a standard Repub, then your observation would be accurate. But if you use your noggin again, ask yourself another question------------>how did Trump get more votes than any other Pub candidate ever, when 40% of the Pubs really don't like him? Who then gave him all those votes? If you notice, he got massive amounts of votes in open primaries, and don't even try and suggest that a dem would waste their vote to push him in, when Hillary and Bernie were fighting tooth and nail for the Dem nomination.

The problem that Hillary has is that her numbers are based on her Democratic support. While yes, Trumps support is also based on Pub support, the polls do not reflect voters who are not number 4s. If it is this close amongst likely voters, if I was a Democrat, I would be sweating bullets too, not knowing how big a voting bloc that is not counted because they signed up recently, is for the opposition.

He got more votes because he is a celebrity and he was entertaining to the tractor pull/Elvis is alive sect of the GOP. And he was on television nearly every morning during the primary season being entertaining. On the stump, He validated what a lot of Appalachia feels in terms of vulgarity, misogyny, and backward thinking that only a 4th grader could admire; much less broadcast proudly. In truth, more GOP primary voters voted for someone else (the large field and 8 different choices of Vanilla helped him).

As for #4 voters…whatever.

In FL and OH, states that will be within 4% between winning and losing (in reality a 2% or so gap) Katich’s support and lack thereof can make a difference; the same goes for Rubio down south.

Can’t wait for November!

 

[Sun Devil 92]

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

We'll add self-flattery to your lists of virtues.

Silver says different. But we should listen to you.

We can't begin to list the things you are lost on.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Ooops....she's down to a 3.1 point lead.

It should be noted that if Real Clear allocates the "undecideds" based on their best information....Hillary gets 370.

Today.

 

[candycorn]

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

We'll add self-flattery to your lists of virtues.

Silver says different. But we should listen to you.

We can't begin to list the things you are lost on.

Lord have mercy…his models are volatile; the election isn’t. His models are based on momentum in essence.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

We'll add self-flattery to your lists of virtues.

Silver says different. But we should listen to you.

We can't begin to list the things you are lost on.

Lord have mercy…his models are volatile; the election isn’t. His models are based on momentum in essence.

His models are as good as the data he gets.

So far, he's done a pretty good job (based on previous elections).

They don't project. They are used to analyze the current situation.

You don't need to know Nate Silver to know she's slipping (close to slipping below 3 points). All you need do is look at the RealClear graphs.

 

[candycorn]

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

We'll add self-flattery to your lists of virtues.

Silver says different. But we should listen to you.

We can't begin to list the things you are lost on.

Lord have mercy…his models are volatile; the election isn’t. His models are based on momentum in essence.

His models are as good as the data he gets.

So far, he's done a pretty good job (based on previous elections).

They don't project. They are used to analyze the current situation.

You don't need to know Nate Silver to know she's slipping (close to slipping below 3 points). All you need do is look at the RealClear graphs.

Meanwhile we use the electoral college in the US. I’m not sure what they use on your planet.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

We'll add self-flattery to your lists of virtues.

Silver says different. But we should listen to you.

We can't begin to list the things you are lost on.

Lord have mercy…his models are volatile; the election isn’t. His models are based on momentum in essence.

His models are as good as the data he gets.

So far, he's done a pretty good job (based on previous elections).

They don't project. They are used to analyze the current situation.

You don't need to know Nate Silver to know she's slipping (close to slipping below 3 points). All you need do is look at the RealClear graphs.

Meanwhile we use the electoral college in the US. I’m not sure what they use on your planet.

You don't seem sure about to much.

As to the electoral college.

She has dropped from 272 to 229 and Trump has gained nothing on the RealClear map.

If RealClear (using today's data....like Nate Silver does) allocates the undecided states....Hillary has 370.

Now what was your point ?

I might also point out that your posts are more stupid than normal when you start drinking this early in the day.

 

[candycorn]

The volatility of the contest is, on a scale of 1-10, about 1.1. HRC has lead and will continue to lead up until election day. As for me, I really am at a loss to explain your obsession with me. It’s pretty creepy.

We'll add self-flattery to your lists of virtues.

Silver says different. But we should listen to you.

We can't begin to list the things you are lost on.

Lord have mercy…his models are volatile; the election isn’t. His models are based on momentum in essence.

His models are as good as the data he gets.

So far, he's done a pretty good job (based on previous elections).

They don't project. They are used to analyze the current situation.

You don't need to know Nate Silver to know she's slipping (close to slipping below 3 points). All you need do is look at the RealClear graphs.

Meanwhile we use the electoral college in the US. I’m not sure what they use on your planet.

You don't seem sure about to much.

As to the electoral college.

She has dropped from 272 to 229 and Trump has gained nothing on the RealClear map.

If RealClear (using today's data....like Nate Silver does) allocates the undecided states....Hillary has 370.

Now what was your point ?

Hillary is cruising….despite your hopes and dreams.

You and Foxfyre should stick to your safe zones….you guys suck at debating.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Nate Silver: Hillary's ability to rig the election could be diminishing. That's what he'd say if he were being honest.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Hillary is cruising….despite your hopes and dreams.

You and Foxfyre should stick to your safe zones….you guys suck at debating.

STFU troll.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

We'll add self-flattery to your lists of virtues.

Silver says different. But we should listen to you.

We can't begin to list the things you are lost on.

Lord have mercy…his models are volatile; the election isn’t. His models are based on momentum in essence.

His models are as good as the data he gets.

So far, he's done a pretty good job (based on previous elections).

They don't project. They are used to analyze the current situation.

You don't need to know Nate Silver to know she's slipping (close to slipping below 3 points). All you need do is look at the RealClear graphs.

Meanwhile we use the electoral college in the US. I’m not sure what they use on your planet.

You don't seem sure about to much.

As to the electoral college.

She has dropped from 272 to 229 and Trump has gained nothing on the RealClear map.

If RealClear (using today's data....like Nate Silver does) allocates the undecided states....Hillary has 370.

Now what was your point ?

Hillary is cruising….despite your hopes and dreams.

You and Foxfyre should stick to your safe zones….you guys suck at debating.

My dream is that their planes collide in mid air and we get a real president.

Please shove your advice sideways. Anytime you'd like to go to the Bullring, just let me know.

 

[candycorn]

Hillary is cruising….despite your hopes and dreams.

You and Foxfyre should stick to your safe zones….you guys suck at debating.

STFU troll.

 

[candycorn]

Lord have mercy…his models are volatile; the election isn’t. His models are based on momentum in essence.

His models are as good as the data he gets.

So far, he's done a pretty good job (based on previous elections).

They don't project. They are used to analyze the current situation.

You don't need to know Nate Silver to know she's slipping (close to slipping below 3 points). All you need do is look at the RealClear graphs.

Meanwhile we use the electoral college in the US. I’m not sure what they use on your planet.

You don't seem sure about to much.

As to the electoral college.

She has dropped from 272 to 229 and Trump has gained nothing on the RealClear map.

If RealClear (using today's data....like Nate Silver does) allocates the undecided states....Hillary has 370.

Now what was your point ?

Hillary is cruising….despite your hopes and dreams.

You and Foxfyre should stick to your safe zones….you guys suck at debating.

My dream is that their planes collide in mid air and we get a real president.

Please shove your advice sideways. Anytime you'd like to go to the Bullring, just let me know.

In Hillary we will have one. Your Messiah? Not so much.