Nate Silver: Hillary's Lead Keeps Shrinking

[candycorn]

The cautious and the "let Trump keep shooing himself in the foot' campaign style, isn't exactly working well for Hillary. It lets Trump dominate the media which keeps his name in the headlines, while almost invisible Clinton fades.
She should be swinging away, just like her opposition.
As someone who has no intention of voting for either, I just want to watch and see gutter politics from Hillary and Trump for purely entertainment..

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Boy, I bet you wish I'd quit calling him your messiah. You mis-represent what I have stated in the past, I'll be happy to mis-represent yours as well asswipe.

HRC is the best qualified person to seek the office since Bush 41. Why dumbfucks like you question that is just a sign of your idiocy.

Thanks for admitting you misrepresent my position. Please inform me where I have misrepresented yours.

HRC's qualifications would be great for someone else.

That's just the way it is.

Nobody really cares that you seem incapable of dealing with that.

Here's to both of them. May their planes simultaneously land on deserted islands where they can't be found.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Don't ever recall disputing that......

But, you seem to need to make things up to argue against.

After all, this is all about you and how much you know because you are left winger and people should bow to your point of view.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The NBC SM poll has Clinton up by 6. They polled over 32,000. The CNN poll polled 786.

 

[easyt65]

The more scandal that comes out on her the lower she sinks in the polls as more and more Americans discover just how crooked she is....and those who already knew but defended her are beginning to feel that the amount coming out is even too much for them.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The more scandal that comes out on her the lower she sinks in the polls as more and more Americans discover just how crooked she is....and those who already knew but defended her are beginning to feel that the amount coming out is even too much for them.

Pam Bondi and Trump's illegal contribution are the latest scandal.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Oh, just a note of perhaps some importance.

Gary Johnson, in 2012, got 1 percent of the vote. Yes, THAT '1%'.

Don't count on him taking 5 or more points away from Hillary Clinton by the time the election rolls around.

 

[Maryland Patriot]

PA, VA, NJ, MI belong to Ms. Clinton. OH and FL look very good for her. Too many Hispanics in Florida and too many christian conservatives that will stay home in Ohio for Mr. Trump.

don't forget states like Maryland, they belong to Clinton, and they will belong to whoever runs as democrat in the elections to come for years and years.
Its the sign of pure idiocy. Really no reason for the people in those states to waste their time voting.

 

[easyt65]

The more scandal comes out about Hillary the more Democrats will start eying Johnson as a more preferable candidate.

 

[easyt65]

PA, VA, NJ, MI belong to Ms. Clinton. OH and FL look very good for her. Too many Hispanics in Florida and too many christian conservatives that will stay home in Ohio for Mr. Trump.

don't forget states like Maryland, they belong to Clinton, and they will belong to whoever runs as democrat in the elections to come for years and years.
Its the sign of pure idiocy. Really no reason for the people in those states to waste their time voting.

Agreed, since it is such a liberal lock they should just stay home.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Trump is not the rebel the right wishes he was.

He's and establishment GOP in sheeps clothing.

What no one is saying is....is he getting better or is she getting worse ?

Polls always tighten around this time then they congeal as people make up their minds. My guess is that you're seeing a lot of the "never Trump" republicans holding their nose and voting for the small fraction of a man when faced with the sober predicament of it's either Trump or HRC and they are able to put out of their mind for a moment that Trump isn't one of them.

HRC just needs 1 or 2 % to stay home in the swing states of FL and OH and it's her's. Kasich is really hurting Trump's chances there.

You predict....

You guess......

Who really cares.

This thread is about what Nate Silver is seeing.

I don't want Trump. That's what is so scarey.

"Small fraction of a man...."....he's running for president and you are posting on a message board.

Yeah, I'm not making fun of the physically disabled like your messiah is. Advantage me.

Please show me where I said I was voting for moron Trump, my messiah.

Just need one post...that's it.

I must say that you need to be updated on your talking points though. You sound like last months news.

Advantage who ?

According to Nate, this election is very volatile.

The real losers in all this are all of us. We have two clowns from the clown bus in a clown race.

I realize you worship clowns, but this thread is about her shrinking lead.

Not your envy.

Very volitile. HRC has lead since the nominees were picked. She still leads. Dumb ass.

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

 

[NYcarbineer]

The more scandal comes out about Hillary the more Democrats will start eying Johnson as a more preferable candidate.

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

 

[easyt65]

The more scandal comes out about Hillary the more Democrats will start eying Johnson as a more preferable candidate.

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

 

[Sun Devil 92]

To me, it's not the poll, it is that Nate Silver is making an analysis.

He's done a very good job in past elections.

He still gives HIllary a 70% chance of winning based on today's results.

But things are shifting....not saying anymore than that...that's what he says.

He has also indicated that volatility is high which means we could be surprized one way or the other.

 

[g5000]

Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking

This is Nate Silver, not Sean Hannity (although I would guess Sean is going to be all over it in his usual dumbassed style).

The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 framing questions about the election1 in light of the most recent polling:

Wow...up to 33%...I would not give him 3.3 %.

Clinton's lead began shrinking after Trump visited Mexico. It was a HUGE mistake for the President of Mexico to invite Trump to come down there. The podium photo op gave Trump presidential cred.

The Mexican people are really pissed at Nieto right now.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The more scandal comes out about Hillary the more Democrats will start eying Johnson as a more preferable candidate.

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

 

[ThoughtCrimes]

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently, 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Yeah and if Cankles coughs up a lung? LMAO

 

[easyt65]

The more scandal comes out about Hillary the more Democrats will start eying Johnson as a more preferable candidate.

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

Comparatively speaking, Trump is an honorable candidate.

And you are completely WRONG about the 'GOP' running Trump. The 'GOP' wanted nothing to do with Trump. The last thing Washington Insider GOP wanted was some outsider who is actually listening to the American people stepping in and upsetting their status-quo apple-cart. You want to give credit to anyone for Trump being where he is, blame the American people tired of corrupt, criminal, self-appointed ruling class politicians - like Hillary - who have elevated themselves above the Constitution and law.

 

[imawhosure]

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently, 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Not in all polls.....dumbass. Her lead is shrinking with each passing week

Well wait until after tonight's national Town Hall to have a good look at the trend line of the polls next week and those on the first Monday after the first debate on Sep 26th when Trump has no script or teleprompter and he has to wing it on his deficient memory! Currently 538 has Trump's winning chances at 1 in 3; not good odds but getting better...until they turn south again with more foot in mouth issues!

Yeah and if Cankles coughs up a lung? LMAO

The more scandal comes out about Hillary the more Democrats will start eying Johnson as a more preferable candidate.

The Johnson fantasy is not new:

Why Gary Johnson could cost Obama or Romney a win in 2012 | Fox News

But the Libs running such a corrupt and physically ill candidate is...

Does that belief make you wish the GOP would have run an honorable candidate?

Comparatively speaking, Trump is an honorable candidate.

And you are completely WRONG about the 'GOP' running Trump. The 'GOP' wanted nothing to do with Trump. The last thing Washington Insider GOP wanted was some outsider who is actually listening to the American people stepping in and upsetting their status-quo apple-cart. You want to give credit to anyone for Trump being where he is, blame the American people tired of corrupt, criminal, self-appointed ruling class politicians - like Hillary - who have elevated themselves above the Constitution and law.

While lefties on this board are not in a panic, many Democrats in the know are.

And why is that? ANSWER---------->Because all of the polls, or virtually all of the polls, are taken the same, exact, way. Do you know why when they report a poll, it is 99 times out of a 100 called "likely" voters? Because pollsters look into the rolls and see who has consistently voted. In other words---------->for President, mid terms, etc. The more they have voted, the more they are coveted as "likely" voters. So what you are actually seeing in the polls is a closing in numbers between the two candidates, of "likely" voters; which is all well and good.

Now for why the Dems in the know are sweating! Because the NEW voters that signed up because of Trump during the primaries and after, aren't even counted; reason being they are seen as "not likely" in the survey. It is sort of the reverse of what happened in 12 when the polls showed the race very, very, close; or Romney slightly ahead. The newly signed up college kids weren't seen as likely, so they were never polled. All the pollsters could do was give best guess on them, but could not add them to their hard numbers, because to do so would be to inject opinion, in a hard numbers poll. As more than one congressional candidate has stated, they asked their team for what is called "number 4 voters" (those who vote regularly) that they could go door to door and glad hand in Florida, and Ohio. To their amazement, almost all of the lawn signs that had "Trump" in the yard, were not on the house list to knock on the door, meaning Trump is certainly underperforming in the polls, as many of his supporters are not on the number 4, or likely voters list, thus not polled by the pollsters.

Now does that mean he is going to win? No! But what it does mean is that his support in many areas, is far deeper and wider than the polls would show, or that the lefties on here would be amazed to discover. Just as Obama underperformed in 12 in polls, so will Trump, it just is what it is. And both of them will show underperformance, for exactly the same reason, just different people.