Oh wow!

[westwall]

Looks like they are going to have warm temps for a while.

Oh? Let's take a look shall we? So, the maps are generated from forecasts, and models. Soooooooooo in oooother wooooords....they'rrrrrrrrre not reeeeeeaaallll.....

"These weather maps are generated from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSV2) and CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) model frameworks. CFSV2 is the core of NCEP's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model, available for April 2011 onward. CFSR is based on version 1 of CFS, and constitutes a state-of-the-art 3rd generation reanalysis. CFSR is available for January 1st, 1979 to 31 March, 2011 on a T382 gaussian grid (~38 km) with 64 vertical levels. CFSR/CFSV2 output fields shown here are from 0.5°x0.5° rectilinear grids downloaded from NCAR CISL Research Data Archive. Daily averages are computed from 3-hourly forecast fields beginning at 0000 UTC. The graphics here are generally updated at the end of each month (e.g., January output images are made at the beginning of February, and so on)."

They have a high probability of turning out true...Well, of course, you crap on everything that is science. Models are a important part of weather forecasting...Oh'nooo's we can't have models.

Let me know when computer derived fiction is considered "data" matt. Science cares about facts. When you present some I will certainly take notice. Projections, and models aren't DATA!

Now that kind of third grade logic works with jc, Silly Billy, and LaDumpkopf, your peers. But anyone that has worded with models knows that they are based on data. Do they always predict correctly? No, but they do have a better record than the 'Conservative' wingnuts. And the closer they are to the event, the more accurate they are. And those are pretty close to the event.

No, dummy. That is solid logic. Please give us the definition of data. I'll wait.

 

[skookerasbil]

Most models 3 to 4 degrees off..........Russian models 1 degree. duh

Snake oil shit.............

Nobody knows shit about this stuff.........this is why scientists like Judith Curry have gained such prominence in recent years and why the public has completely tuned out the whole "computer models" crap.

 

[Old Rocks]

June 2016March 2000





Download an animation of this dataset (8 MB)
Mr. Westwall, has anyone ever mentioned to you what a screwed up little liar you are? You cherry picked one period that fitted your lies. Here is the whole animation from NASA.

 

[Old Rocks]

And that model you present is based on data, but is still a model. But because you can lie a lot, and pretend that it represent all of the year, you present it. You are a basically very dishonest person.

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL And it still looks like Santa is going to need pontoons. LOL

 

[westwall]

And that model you present is based on data, but is still a model. But because you can lie a lot, and pretend that it represent all of the year, you present it. You are a basically very dishonest person.

Sure thing bub. The only dishonest person in this thread is you. We all know how you have lied about your age, and your supposed schooling. As they say in Court. Once a liar, always a liar. I'm still waiting for you to present the definition of data. Hop to it...boy.

 

[flacaltenn]

Looks like they are going to have warm temps for a while.

Oh? Let's take a look shall we? So, the maps are generated from forecasts, and models. Soooooooooo in oooother wooooords....they'rrrrrrrrre not reeeeeeaaallll.....

"These weather maps are generated from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSV2) and CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) model frameworks. CFSV2 is the core of NCEP's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model, available for April 2011 onward. CFSR is based on version 1 of CFS, and constitutes a state-of-the-art 3rd generation reanalysis. CFSR is available for January 1st, 1979 to 31 March, 2011 on a T382 gaussian grid (~38 km) with 64 vertical levels. CFSR/CFSV2 output fields shown here are from 0.5°x0.5° rectilinear grids downloaded from NCAR CISL Research Data Archive. Daily averages are computed from 3-hourly forecast fields beginning at 0000 UTC. The graphics here are generally updated at the end of each month (e.g., January output images are made at the beginning of February, and so on)."

They have a high probability of turning out true...Well, of course, you crap on everything that is science. Models are a important part of weather forecasting...Oh'nooo's we can't have models.

These are same jesters who tried to go viral with their "Arctic is burning up" meme a couple weeks ago. You know, the time I posted I posted the ACTUAL arctic temperatures in Siberia which didn't reflect any kind of crisis. The idiots also did not annotate their pseudocolor scale. Have NO IDEA what we're looking at. But I can tell you the problem. The Undergrads are in the modeling lab ---- AGAIN...

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

Here is the last 24 hours of total precipitable water (link in previous TPW post), yet another arm has been ejected. The global view, embedded in the lower right corner, shows the origin and causation story goes far beyond the Caribbean and involves the overall equatorial circulation.

24 hrs of warm humid air import to Arctic Ocean.gif (4260.39 kB, 700x580 - viewed 937 times.)

Looks like Santa is going to need pontoons on his sleigh.

OMG! We're all gonna die!

 

[flacaltenn]

Where is THIS on the reanalzed data? Huh...

https://binged.it/2imCqz4

 

[flacaltenn]

It's a little warmer in Barrow (north shore Alaska), but nothing is melting. IN FACT, when there's ample precipt for snow -- the ice BUILDS FASTER..


https://binged.it/2imFcEK

 

[flacaltenn]

In general arctic sea ice is at near record low for this time of year. HOWEVER, it's "build rate" is above normal. And the difference between being normal and "below normal" is LITERALLY a couple days of actual loss of ice during Oct/Nov. So when a couple days make the difference in multiple sigmas deviation from "normal" -- that's why I don't "do" Sea Ice.

 

[Crick]

I'd like to see an example of "multiple sigma deviation" in the matter of "a couple days".

I kinda wonder why you keep announcing why you don't do sea ice every time there's a sea ice thread. Were folks wondering where you were?

 

[Old Rocks]

Looks like they are going to have warm temps for a while.

Oh? Let's take a look shall we? So, the maps are generated from forecasts, and models. Soooooooooo in oooother wooooords....they'rrrrrrrrre not reeeeeeaaallll.....

"These weather maps are generated from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSV2) and CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) model frameworks. CFSV2 is the core of NCEP's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model, available for April 2011 onward. CFSR is based on version 1 of CFS, and constitutes a state-of-the-art 3rd generation reanalysis. CFSR is available for January 1st, 1979 to 31 March, 2011 on a T382 gaussian grid (~38 km) with 64 vertical levels. CFSR/CFSV2 output fields shown here are from 0.5°x0.5° rectilinear grids downloaded from NCAR CISL Research Data Archive. Daily averages are computed from 3-hourly forecast fields beginning at 0000 UTC. The graphics here are generally updated at the end of each month (e.g., January output images are made at the beginning of February, and so on)."

They have a high probability of turning out true...Well, of course, you crap on everything that is science. Models are a important part of weather forecasting...Oh'nooo's we can't have models.

These are same jesters who tried to go viral with their "Arctic is burning up" meme a couple weeks ago. You know, the time I posted I posted the ACTUAL arctic temperatures in Siberia which didn't reflect any kind of crisis. The idiots also did not annotate their pseudocolor scale. Have NO IDEA what we're looking at. But I can tell you the problem. The Undergrads are in the modeling lab ---- AGAIN...

Oh golly gee whiz, and where on that map do you see anything but very cold temperatures in Siberia? And, at the same time, very warm temperatures for the Arctic Ocean. Your post was silly then, it is very silly now.

 

[Old Rocks]

In general arctic sea ice is at near record low for this time of year. HOWEVER, it's "build rate" is above normal. And the difference between being normal and "below normal" is LITERALLY a couple days of actual loss of ice during Oct/Nov. So when a couple days make the difference in multiple sigmas deviation from "normal" -- that's why I don't "do" Sea Ice.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

A couple of days of multiple sigma deviations? How about since mid September multiple sigma deviations. And at record lows since mid-October.

 

[Old Rocks]

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Record warmth in the Arctic this year
By Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
12/23/2016, 5:34:25 PM
NOAA recently released their 2016 Arctic Report Card which continues to show a persistent warming trend across the region.

Short summary video courtesy NOAA and YouTube.

This annual, peer-reviewed report on the Arctic was compiled by a total of 61 international scientists. The report revealed the following.......

--2016 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic.

--The Arctic is warming at a rate that is twice as fast as the global average.

--New monthly record highs for the Arctic were set in January, February, October and November of this year.

--Just this week, temperatures within a 100 miles of the North Pole reached the freezing mark, which is about 40 to 50 degrees warmer than average!

--The annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent, which occurred in September, tied 2007 for the second lowest extent in the satellite record going back to 1979.

--Arctic sea ice continues to trend younger and thinner, which makes it more susceptible to complete melt off during the summer months.

Record warmth in the Arctic this year

Observations, not models.

 

[Old Rocks]

Greenland

--The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing an average of 268 gigatonnes per year since 2002. There has been only one year in the past 37 years that has had an earlier onset of spring melting than what occurred in the spring of 2016.

--Melt extent in Greenland was the tenth highest in the 38-year satellite record.

Record warmth in the Arctic this year

And, of course, what is also going to affect all of us.

 

[flacaltenn]

In general arctic sea ice is at near record low for this time of year. HOWEVER, it's "build rate" is above normal. And the difference between being normal and "below normal" is LITERALLY a couple days of actual loss of ice during Oct/Nov. So when a couple days make the difference in multiple sigmas deviation from "normal" -- that's why I don't "do" Sea Ice.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

A couple of days of multiple sigma deviations? How about since mid September multiple sigma deviations. And at record lows since mid-October.

Sure Sure.. Did you read the "analysis" under the graph. That's where I verified EVERYTHING I said in my previous post.

The differences in those graphs from year depend on single day events or just slightly more to move them out of normal bounds. And right now, the RATE of build is way above average. Which wouldn't be occurring if the Arctic "is melting".

Here's the deal. Arctic Sea Ice is diminishing. It's diminishing whether the temp anomaly is 1 deg or 10 deg in the winter time. And actually WEATHER related events like big moist pushes INTO the arctic when it's 0degF are good for building sea ice.

Now warmer currents moving up there are probably just dissipation of the El Nino warming. Just like this months' GLOBAL temp anomaly has made it's way down the the Tropics. Which is the region that accounted for most of November's GLOBAL warming.

The dynamics of the system can be confusing to folks who think that only CO2 drives the climate system.

 

[ding]

Ice will melt when temperatures are below the freezing point if the sun is shining. There goes their models.

 

[Crick]

In general arctic sea ice is at near record low for this time of year. HOWEVER, it's "build rate" is above normal. And the difference between being normal and "below normal" is LITERALLY a couple days of actual loss of ice during Oct/Nov. So when a couple days make the difference in multiple sigmas deviation from "normal" -- that's why I don't "do" Sea Ice.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

A couple of days of multiple sigma deviations? How about since mid September multiple sigma deviations. And at record lows since mid-October.

Sure Sure.. Did you read the "analysis" under the graph. That's where I verified EVERYTHING I said in my previous post.

The differences in those graphs from year depend on single day events or just slightly more to move them out of normal bounds. And right now, the RATE of build is way above average. Which wouldn't be occurring if the Arctic "is melting".

Here's the deal. Arctic Sea Ice is diminishing. It's diminishing whether the temp anomaly is 1 deg or 10 deg in the winter time. And actually WEATHER related events like big moist pushes INTO the arctic when it's 0degF are good for building sea ice.

Now warmer currents moving up there are probably just dissipation of the El Nino warming. Just like this months' GLOBAL temp anomaly has made it's way down the the Tropics. Which is the region that accounted for most of November's GLOBAL warming.

The dynamics of the system can be confusing to folks who think that only CO2 drives the climate system.

Obviously the system is affected by weather. Just as obviously, the long term temperature and ice extent trends are due to global warming and global warming is due to CO2.

 

[polarbear]

In general arctic sea ice is at near record low for this time of year. HOWEVER, it's "build rate" is above normal. And the difference between being normal and "below normal" is LITERALLY a couple days of actual loss of ice during Oct/Nov. So when a couple days make the difference in multiple sigmas deviation from "normal" -- that's why I don't "do" Sea Ice.

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

A couple of days of multiple sigma deviations? How about since mid September multiple sigma deviations. And at record lows since mid-October.

Sure Sure.. Did you read the "analysis" under the graph. That's where I verified EVERYTHING I said in my previous post.

The differences in those graphs from year depend on single day events or just slightly more to move them out of normal bounds. And right now, the RATE of build is way above average. Which wouldn't be occurring if the Arctic "is melting".

Here's the deal. Arctic Sea Ice is diminishing. It's diminishing whether the temp anomaly is 1 deg or 10 deg in the winter time. And actually WEATHER related events like big moist pushes INTO the arctic when it's 0degF are good for building sea ice.

Now warmer currents moving up there are probably just dissipation of the El Nino warming. Just like this months' GLOBAL temp anomaly has made it's way down the the Tropics. Which is the region that accounted for most of November's GLOBAL warming.

The dynamics of the system can be confusing to folks who think that only CO2 drives the climate system.

Why is it so hard to find real satellite pictures of the North pole instead of these Adobe Photoshop renderings:

Now take a look at this video of these sight seeing flights to the North Pole AirBerlin offers:

In April the same year there was ice from Svalbard all the way to Greenland and on to the pole while Climate.gov posts a picture with no ice showing in the area that flight covered.