Oh wow!

[miketx]

Here you see the current model I am working on.

 

[ding]

If there is insufficient data to calculate the warming slope to a tenth of a degree per century over 13,000 years, there is insufficient data to present those data at all.

The assumption that unevidenced events took place when you have NO mechanism to have created them is simply unsupportable.

If you think an ice core only produces points every 5,000 to 12,000 years, you're off your rocker. Cores are continuously melted and continuously analyzed with resolutions of a few hundred years. See Ice core basics for some - as it says - BASIC information.

No. The oxygen isotope curve is well established for the Cenozoic. It is widely accepted within the scientific community as the proxy for past temperature and climates.

 

[ding]

Looks like they are going to have warm temps for a while.

Oh? Let's take a look shall we? So, the maps are generated from forecasts, and models. Soooooooooo in oooother wooooords....they'rrrrrrrrre not reeeeeeaaallll.....

"These weather maps are generated from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSV2) and CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) model frameworks. CFSV2 is the core of NCEP's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model, available for April 2011 onward. CFSR is based on version 1 of CFS, and constitutes a state-of-the-art 3rd generation reanalysis. CFSR is available for January 1st, 1979 to 31 March, 2011 on a T382 gaussian grid (~38 km) with 64 vertical levels. CFSR/CFSV2 output fields shown here are from 0.5°x0.5° rectilinear grids downloaded from NCAR CISL Research Data Archive. Daily averages are computed from 3-hourly forecast fields beginning at 0000 UTC. The graphics here are generally updated at the end of each month (e.g., January output images are made at the beginning of February, and so on)."

Westwall said "So, the maps are generated from forecasts, and models. Soooooooooo in oooother wooooords....they'rrrrrrrrre not reeeeeeaaallll."

The article said "January output images are made at the beginning of February, and so on"

I said, God, Westwall, are you fucking stupid.

Warming in the Northern hemisphere is to be expected during an interglacial period. It will warm more at the North pole than it will in the South pole. There is nothing unusual about what we are seeing.

 

[Crick]

The current global rate is ten times the rate in that ice core data. If that was always the case, why would that O2 isotope curve be accepted as accurate?

Are you going to admit your mistake when you told us that 12,000 years of data consisted of only two data points?

 

[Old Rocks]

View attachment 104709
Here you see the current model I am working on.

One is wise to work within their intellectual capabilities.

 

[miketx]

View attachment 104709
Here you see the current model I am working on.

One is wise to work within their intellectual capabilities.

So what's your problem?

 

[flacaltenn]

I'd like to see an example of "multiple sigma deviation" in the matter of "a couple days".

I kinda wonder why you keep announcing why you don't do sea ice every time there's a sea ice thread. Were folks wondering where you were?

Thought I mentioned where that comes from a page ago. It's commentary right in the NSIDC page that you maniacs use to scare yourselves every day. Talked about the build rate being HIGHER than normal . Talked about the difference being LITERALLY just a couple DAYS of the season.

You should know by now Squidward. I don't make NOTHING up.. Except the stuff labeled as "opinion"..
Why I'm "not there" is because you're too scared or lazy to quote my posts in your replies. You KNOW I'll always show up to help you out if I get a reply alert...

 

[flacaltenn]

Looks like they are going to have warm temps for a while.

Oh? Let's take a look shall we? So, the maps are generated from forecasts, and models. Soooooooooo in oooother wooooords....they'rrrrrrrrre not reeeeeeaaallll.....

"These weather maps are generated from the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSV2) and CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) model frameworks. CFSV2 is the core of NCEP's operational Global Forecast System (GFS) model, available for April 2011 onward. CFSR is based on version 1 of CFS, and constitutes a state-of-the-art 3rd generation reanalysis. CFSR is available for January 1st, 1979 to 31 March, 2011 on a T382 gaussian grid (~38 km) with 64 vertical levels. CFSR/CFSV2 output fields shown here are from 0.5°x0.5° rectilinear grids downloaded from NCAR CISL Research Data Archive. Daily averages are computed from 3-hourly forecast fields beginning at 0000 UTC. The graphics here are generally updated at the end of each month (e.g., January output images are made at the beginning of February, and so on)."

They have a high probability of turning out true...Well, of course, you crap on everything that is science. Models are a important part of weather forecasting...Oh'nooo's we can't have models.

These are same jesters who tried to go viral with their "Arctic is burning up" meme a couple weeks ago. You know, the time I posted I posted the ACTUAL arctic temperatures in Siberia which didn't reflect any kind of crisis. The idiots also did not annotate their pseudocolor scale. Have NO IDEA what we're looking at. But I can tell you the problem. The Undergrads are in the modeling lab ---- AGAIN...

Oh golly gee whiz, and where on that map do you see anything but very cold temperatures in Siberia? And, at the same time, very warm temperatures for the Arctic Ocean. Your post was silly then, it is very silly now.

Well GoldieRocks -- last time this "lab" released a "The ARctic was burning up" Press tweet, They claimed Siberia was burning up. And I simply posted the few easily gotten station data to show how THAT big red blob of heat was a modeling burp..

Now THIS time, they actually HIT a forecast with their models, But the distribution of all that is SERIOUSLY in question given actual REAL data. See the data up there is VERY SPARSE. Even under satellite coverage. And when color "between the lines" with a modeling tool that makes bad gridding of the uncovered regions, It just LOOKS like we're all gonna die.

In fact, there's so little regional data up there, you could make the ENTIRE Arctic Ocean damn near any color that pleases you most any day of the week with a little extra modeling...

 

[westwall]

The current global rate is ten times the rate in that ice core data. If that was always the case, why would that O2 isotope curve be accepted as accurate?

Are you going to admit your mistake when you told us that 12,000 years of data consisted of only two data points?

As soon as you admit that the hockey stick is based on a single data point.

 

[westwall]

Thanks westwall and flacaltenn for clearing all this up.

How do you think those animations are created? Do you think they are just a series of photographs taken from some satellite magically hovering over the North Pole? Reanalysis is a process to take previously recorded data and (this is the part you'd never suspect) reanalyze it. The models are used to do the best possible job at piecing together different satellite tracks, fill in missed areas, create a continuous, colored image from a bunch of numbers. That was not a forecast. That was history made pretty.

"Reanalysis" is AGW cult speak for "we pulled it out of our ass".

 

[Billy_Bob]

View attachment 104709
Here you see the current model I am working on.

One is wise to work within their intellectual capabilities.

Says a moron that is way in over his head..

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice below two standard deviations. At least two short periods of melt in the middle of the long Arctic night. But it all means nothing. That is the line of fools.

Yes, the real scientists are worried. Because their predictions are way off. They were far, far too conservative. The warming is happening far faster than anyone expected. Three record years in a row, each warmer than the last. What will 2017 bring?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice below two standard deviations. At least two short periods of melt in the middle of the long Arctic night. But it all means nothing. That is the line of fools.

Yes, the real scientists are worried. Because their predictions are way off. They were far, far too conservative. The warming is happening far faster than anyone expected. Three record years in a row, each warmer than the last. What will 2017 bring?

And then there is DMI and the Australian Meteorological Agency who say Nope!....

Interesting that we have competing positions...

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice below two standard deviations. At least two short periods of melt in the middle of the long Arctic night. But it all means nothing. That is the line of fools.

Yes, the real scientists are worried. Because their predictions are way off. They were far, far too conservative. The warming is happening far faster than anyone expected. Three record years in a row, each warmer than the last. What will 2017 bring?

And then there is DMI and the Australian Meteorological Agency who say Nope!....

Interesting that we have competing positions...

OK, Silly Billy, why don't you just post what they have to say? Afraid to do that? Why?

 

[Old Rocks]

Tabular view for temperature and precipitation per month
Months Temperature Precipitation Wind
Average Normal Warmest Coldest Total Normal Highest
daily value Average Strongest
wind Ave Normal Warmest Coldest
Dec 2016 -6.0°C -13.4°C 4.8°C Dec 21 -18.5°C Dec 8 22.7 mm 16.0 mm 3.4 mm Dec 20 5.9 m/s 24.8 m/s Dec 29
Nov 2016 -0.7°C -10.3°C 6.4°C Nov 8 -11.1°C Nov 27 58.0 mm 15.0 mm 41.7 mm Nov 8 5.7 m/s 16.5 m/s Nov 8
Oct 2016 3.2°C -5.5°C 10.1°C Oct 7 -3.8°C Oct 15 57.0 mm 14.0 mm 18.3 mm Oct 15 5.7 m/s 17.8 m/s Oct 8
Sep 2016 4.1°C 0.3°C 11.9°C Sep 18 -0.5°C Sep 12 27.4 mm 20.0 mm 5.0 mm Sep 21 3.8 m/s 16.8 m/s Sep 19
Aug 2016 5.8°C 4.7°C 14.3°C Aug 2 0.2°C Aug 24 27.3 mm 23.0 mm 5.9 mm Aug 29 4.6 m/s 15.0 m/s Aug 29
Jul 2016 9.0°C 5.9°C 14.5°C Jul 3 5.1°C Jul 5 51.7 mm 18.0 mm 15.1 mm Jul 13 5.2 m/s 14.4 m/s Jul 20
Jun 2016 5.0°C 2.0°C 10.3°C Jun 28 0.3°C Jun 4 6.8 mm 10.0 mm 1.7 mm Jun 1 4.3 m/s 10.5 m/s Jun 9
May 2016 1.8°C -4.1°C 8.4°C May 27 -5.1°C May 5 1.9 mm 6.0 mm 0.3 mm May 28 5.2 m/s 17.3 m/s May 12
Apr 2016 -7.7°C -12.2°C 3.1°C Apr 30 -17.3°C Apr 12 3.8 mm 11.0 mm 1.2 mm Apr 4 4.6 m/s 10.3 m/s Apr 20
Mar 2016 -7.1°C -15.7°C 5.4°C Mar 13 -17.9°C Mar 25 8.4 mm 23.0 mm 2.0 mm Mar 15 5.0 m/s 15.7 m/s Mar 14
Feb 2016 -5.6°C -16.2°C 1.7°C Feb 18 -13.6°C Feb 9 2.4 mm 19.0 mm 0.5 mm Feb 17 5.9 m/s 13.7 m/s Feb 4
Jan 2016 -3.8°C -15.3°C 6.6°C Jan 2 -11.9°C Jan 21 42.6 mm 15.0 mm 17.8 mm Jan 3 6.4 m/s 15.7 m/s Jan 9
Dec 2015 -6.0°C -13.4°C 8.7°C Dec 30 -19.0°C Dec 13 47.7 mm 16.0 mm 18.0 mm Dec 19 5.9 m/s 23.2 m/s Dec 19

Weather statistics for Longyearbyen

Norway

 

[Old Rocks]

Changes in Winter Warming Events in the Nordic Arctic Region


Dagrun Vikhamar-Schuler, Ketil Isaksen, and Jan Erik Haugen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NorwayHans Tømmervik
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM–High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment, Tromsø, NorwayBartlomiej Luks
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, PolandThomas Vikhamar Schuler
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, NorwayJarle W. Bjerke
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM–High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment, Tromsø, Norway


Abstract
In recent years extreme winter warming events have been reported in arctic areas. These events are characterized as extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, causing ecological disturbance and challenges for arctic societies and infrastructure. Ground-ice formation due to winter rain or melting prevents ungulates from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The authors analyze changes in frequency and intensity of winter warming events in the Nordic arctic region—northern Norway, Sweden, and Finland, including the arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. This study identifies events in the longest available records of daily temperature and precipitation, as well as in future climate scenarios, and performs analyses of long-term trends for climate indices aimed to capture these individual events. Results show high frequencies of warm weather events during the 1920s–30s and the past 15 years (2000–14), causing weak positive trends over the past 90 years (1924–2014). In contrast, strong positive trends in occurrence and intensity for all climate indices are found for the past 50 years with, for example, increased rates for number of melt days of up to 9.2 days decade−1 for the arctic islands and 3–7 days decade−1 for the arctic mainland. Regional projections for the twenty-first century indicate a significant enhancement of the frequency and intensity of winter warming events. For northern Scandinavia, the simulations indicate a doubling in the number of warming events, compared to 1985–2014, while the projected frequencies for the arctic islands are up to 3 times higher.

Keywords: Geographic location/entity; arctic; Physical Meteorology and Climatology; Climate change; Snow cover; Temperature

This is an open source, so the whole article is there. You see, Silly Billy, rather than just flapping yap, you need to post your sources.

 

[ding]

The current global rate is ten times the rate in that ice core data. If that was always the case, why would that O2 isotope curve be accepted as accurate?

Are you going to admit your mistake when you told us that 12,000 years of data consisted of only two data points?

Good Lord, you are dense.

"...Their results indicate that detailed correlations are possible at the sampling interval (2000-4000 yr in the records used)."

http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/pub/martinson/martinson87.pdf

 

[Crick]

That comment, from a 29 year old article, refers to a stacked set of sediment cores taken from the ocean bottom. The data originally under discussion here were the Antarctic Vostok and Epica ice cores, which were sampled CONTINUOUSLY.

God are you dishonest.

 

[SSDD]

If there is insufficient data to calculate the warming slope to a tenth of a degree per century over 13,000 years, there is insufficient data to present those data at all.

tell me crick...exactly how stupid are you? If I know the temperature for christmas day and I know the temperature for new years day at my location, I can accurately present the difference between the two, but I can't make any statement at all regarding the rate of change between the two...If I don't have regularly spaced data points..and a lot of them between the two, I can't even start to make a statement about the rate of change...

If you have two data points..a low temperature...and a high temperature...you can't make claims about the rate of change...this isn't brain surgery...it is stuff that a 7th grader should know and yet you are oblivious.....why is that?

 

[ding]

That comment, from a 29 year old article, refers to a stacked set of sediment cores taken from the ocean bottom. The data originally under discussion here were the Antarctic Vostok and Epica ice cores, which were sampled CONTINUOUSLY.

God are you dishonest.

The paper was about the resolution of the oxygen isotope curve. Do you have a better paper?