OMG Trumps gonna start WW3

[Mushroom]

Russia has been warning they were not going to stand back while their security was threatened by NATO expansion...amongst other Russian concerns

Know what's really funny about that? There has not been a nation that bordered Russia that joined NATO in almost 20 years. That was when several joined in the fifth group of expansions in 2004.

However, in response to their invasion of Ukraine, two nations have joined NATO. One of them being Finland. Which I can promise had no intention of joining before the Invasion of Ukraine.

And there was absolutely nothing stopping Russia from trying to extend their own CSTO. Of course, one of the founding members of the CSTO but ultimately refused to join was Ukraine. And of the other members, three of them left the organization (most notably founding member Georgia) after Russian incursions and occupations.

You know, it's almost like most of the neighboring countries remember the last time Russia created some kind of organization to keep peace. And because of that memory does not want anything to do with it.

Just maybe if the CSTO was more concerned with actually supporting their allies instead of trying to steal parts of their country it would have been more successful. But remembering the past of the Warsaw Pact, I can't blame a lot of countries for wanting nothing to do with the CSTO and instead looking to NATO.

If they were so damned concerned, then they should have been a "good big brother" and not driven almost a third of the membership of the CSTO away.

 

[Mushroom]

If Trump had won, Putin would not have invaded Ukraine.

Oh that is complete coprolite.

That is as idiotic as saying that if Mike Dukakis won in 1988 Iraq would never have invaded Kuwait. Or if Al Gore had won in 2000 al Qaeda would never have attacked the WTC.

Only really self-absorbed and idiotic narcissistic people can possibly believe such nonsense.

 

[rightwinger]

If Trump had won, Putin would not have invaded Ukraine.

If Trump had won, he wouldn’t have lifted a finger to help Ukraine
He still won’t.

 

[rightwinger]

Know what's really funny about that? There has not been a nation that bordered Russia that joined NATO in almost 20 years. That was when several joined in the fifth group of expansions in 2004.

However, in response to their invasion of Ukraine, two nations have joined NATO. One of them being Finland. Which I can promise had no intention of joining before the Invasion of Ukraine.

And there was absolutely nothing stopping Russia from trying to extend their own CSTO. Of course, one of the founding members of the CSTO but ultimately refused to join was Ukraine. And of the other members, three of them left the organization (most notably founding member Georgia) after Russian incursions and occupations.

You know, it's almost like most of the neighboring countries remember the last time Russia created some kind of organization to keep peace. And because of that memory does not want anything to do with it.

Just maybe if the CSTO was more concerned with actually supporting their allies instead of trying to steal parts of their country it would have been more successful. But remembering the past of the Warsaw Pact, I can't blame a lot of countries for wanting nothing to do with the CSTO and instead looking to NATO.

If they were so damned concerned, then they should have been a "good big brother" and not driven almost a third of the membership of the CSTO away.

Putin has a goal to reconstitute the USSR
Ukraine was a key step.

They had a limited military capability compared to Russia and Putin took Trumps word that NATO and particularly Joe Biden was too weak to oppose him.
Putin thought the EU was more concerned with Russian oil and that Biden was a weak leader

Instead of an easy mark, Ukraine with the aid of Western powers proved more than Russia could handle. His borders with Finland and Sweden are now NATO members.

Hardly the empire he imagined

 

[Silver Cat]

If Trump had won, he wouldn’t have lifted a finger to help Ukraine
He still won’t.

It depends on what do you mean saying 'to help'. Sometimes, quite often, the best help is just not be involved.
Trump said: "You wanna fight - then fight, but I won't give a penny". Ukraine decided not to attack Donbass, therefore Russia decided not to attack Ukraine. The situation is unperfect, but balanced.
Biden said: "Go and fight those Russians, we'll give you billions". Ukraine gathered forces to attack Donbass, Russia gathered forces to attack Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine lost thousands of lifes, the USA and EU lost billions of dollars directly and started de-dollarisation of the world's economy. Chinese and Indians are making their fortunes.

 

[Silver Cat]

Putin has a goal to reconstitute the USSR
Ukraine was a key step.

They had a limited military capability compared to Russia and Putin took Trumps word that NATO and particularly Joe Biden was too weak to oppose him.
Putin thought the EU was more concerned with Russian oil and that Biden was a weak leader

Instead of an easy mark, Ukraine with the aid of Western powers proved more than Russia could handle. His borders with Finland and Sweden are now NATO members.

Hardly the empire he imagined

Actually, Shanghai block is the "empire he imagined".

 

[rightwinger]

It depends on what do you mean saying 'to help'. Sometimes, quite often, the best help is just not be involved.
Trump said: "You wanna fight - then fight, but I won't give a penny". Ukraine decided not to attack Donbass, therefore Russia decided not to attack Ukraine. The situation is unperfect, but balanced.
Biden said: "Go and fight those Russians, we'll give you billions". Ukraine gathered forces to attack Donbass, Russia gathered forces to attack Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine lost thousands of lifes, the USA and EU lost billions of dollars directly and started de-dollarisation of the world's economy. Chinese and Indians are making their fortunes.

Exactly the reason we can’t elect Trump
He knows that refusing to help Ukraine will result in a Putin win.
That is why he is not calling for Russia to withdraw but is demanding immediate “peace”

 

[Silver Cat]

Exactly the reason we can’t elect Trump
He knows that refusing to help Ukraine will result in a Putin win.
That is why he is not calling for Russia to withdraw but is demanding immediate “peace”

I see no problem in scenario of Russian "victory" in Ukraine.
1. They will face guerilla war in the Western regions of Ukraine (without wasting money of American taxpayers and ruining American economy).
2. European countries will become more dependent on American nuclear umbrella, they will pay more money to us, and less to India, China and Russia.
3. The USA will be able to focus on really important things - defending American citizens and valuable allies. "Valuable allies" means those, who are donors of money, resources and security, not pure leaks.

 

[BackAgain]

What is wrong with taking the war to Russia?
They started it

The concern which sails wicked high over your petty little head at Mach speed is the fact that Putin has nukes.

Now, I do kinda sort of get it. Putin is a fucking malicious scumbag who would perform an invaluable service for the world by killing himself.

But not being aware of what the danger might be by cornering a rabid nuclear weapons armed rat is a sign of your stupidity.

 

[rightwinger]

The concern which sails wicked high over your petty little head at Mach speed is the fact that Putin has nukes.

Now, I do kinda sort of get it. Putin is a fucking malicious scumbag who would perform an invaluable service for the world by killing himself.

But not being aware of what the danger might be by cornering a rabid nuclear weapons armed rat is a sign of your stupidity.

Cowering and conceding to Putin “because he has nukes” will never work, he will only demand more.

To assume Russia is allowed to invade and bomb Ukraine targets without any retaliation is a nonstarter

 

[BackAgain]

Cowering and conceding to Putin “because he has nukes” will never work, he will only demand more.

Get back to us when you can honestly and validly find anyone suggesting we should cower or concede. You fucking pant load. The point I made was that there are considerations which ought to be given due attention prior to engaging in that war.

To assume Russia is allowed to invade and bomb Ukraine targets without any retaliation is a nonstarter

Good boi! I agree that Putin needs to get his little red dick kicked. Putin had the Russian military invade a sovereign neighbor’s land. And Ukraine has fought back. Accumulated Russian losses have been shown signs of motivating decent Russian people to protest against Putin.

That said, since neither of us know what straw on the camel’s back is the one which will break Putin’s last vestige of common sense, we actually do need to be aware of the risks.

 

[rightwinger]

Get back to us when you can honestly and validly find anyone suggesting we should cower or concede. You fucking pant load. The point I made was that there are considerations which ought to be given due attention prior to engaging in that war.

Good boi! I agree that Putin needs to get his little red dick kicked. Putin had the Russian military invade a sovereign neighbor’s land. And Ukraine has fought back. Accumulated Russian losses have been shown signs of motivating decent Russian people to protest against Putin.

That said, since neither of us know what straw on the camel’s back is the one which will break Putin’s last vestige of common sense, we actually do need to be aware of the risks.

Putin needs to be pragmatic when it comes to nukes. He understands the MAD retaliation he would face

If Moscow is on the verge of falling to an invading force, he could justify nukes as a last resort.

If Moscow is bombed in retaliation for bombing Kyev, he can’t really justify going nuke

 

[BackAgain]

Putin needs to be pragmatic when it comes to nukes. He understands the MAD retaliation he would face

If Moscow is on the verge of falling to an invading force, he could justify nukes as a last resort.

If Moscow is bombed in retaliation for bombing Kyev, he can’t really justify going nuke

Putin needs a lot of things. But there’s nothing wrong with contemplating the prospect of a nuclear war. And it isn’t necessarily a good bet to put our chips on that insane scumbag thinking rationally.

 

[Silver Cat]

Putin needs to be pragmatic when it comes to nukes. He understands the MAD retaliation he would face

The MAD is a myth and a childish scarytale.

 

[Silver Cat]

Putin needs a lot of things. But there’s nothing wrong with contemplating the prospect of a nuclear war. And it isn’t necessarily a good bet to put our chips on that insane scumbag thinking rationally.

Didn't you hear about rationality of irrationality?

 

[rightwinger]

The MAD is a myth and a childish scarytale.

It has worked for 70 years

 

[Silver Cat]

Putin needs to be pragmatic when it comes to nukes. He understands the MAD retaliation he would face

If Moscow is on the verge of falling to an invading force, he could justify nukes as a last resort.

If Moscow is bombed in retaliation for bombing Kyev, he can’t really justify going nuke

When Moscow is on the verge of falling it's already too late. To survive and win the war, and, what is also important - to win the postwar peace his strike must be counterforce+evasion+postattack coerce. And effective counterforce should be sudden. Not out of blue, of course, but quite surprising. And it means conception "escalation for de-escalation".

 

[Silver Cat]

It has worked for 70 years

No. Worked "the delicate balance of terror".
And the first rule of this game (at least after 1962) was - "don't be too provocative and vulnerable simultaneously".

 

[Mushroom]

Putin needs to be pragmatic when it comes to nukes. He understands the MAD retaliation he would face

And not only him, but those in the military, and most importantly those that would actually be activating them.

The systems is not automated, it requires real people to pass down those orders and activate the weapons. And we know from tests in our own nuclear forces back in the 1970s and earlier, a great many would outright resist using them if they themselves did not see a reason other than self-preservation.

Pushing a button after a hundred nukes are seen coming at you is a rational response and likely to be followed. Nuking a nation because it pissed you off but is not in danger of attacking you, that is irrational and likely would be refused.

The people below him in the chain of command know this, and it only takes one or two to completely block the use of nukes. And the same things happened in Iraq when Saddam in 1991 and 2003 against Coalition forces. His Generals simply nodded their heads and said yes, but many never passed along the orders.

 

[Mushroom]

But there’s nothing wrong with contemplating the prospect of a nuclear war. And it isn’t necessarily a good bet to put our chips on that insane scumbag thinking rationally.

There is a difference between contemplating, and being irrationally paranoid and fearful.