Philippine catastrophe

[Abraham3]

Did you find your prayer group?

Did you find a shred of humanity? I didn't think so.

What makes you think I'm lacking humanity? Because I put no value in the Christian faith? If it helps, I have the same low regard for the Muslim faith... for all faiths. I simply reject all supernatural: Jehovah, Allah, the Hindu pantheon, the Little People, mermaids, unicorns, dragons and Jesus.

Do you think that makes me inhuman?

 

[flacaltenn]

When are you going to explain accuracy vs time span?

Soon as you answer my question about the number of superior atheist intellects that youd have to measure to prove your assertion. Would 10 be better than 2?

So, you've thought about it and realized that you opened your yap without thinking. Good. Too bad you're not man enough to just come out and admit your mistake.

BTW, you asked no such question.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/environment/323191-philippine-catastrophe-10.html#post8124051


quit lying... and stop snorting whatever is making you stupid today... READ, THINK, START at the link above which are the words you say, that I never said.

 

[flacaltenn]

Found a comment on windspeed measurement in the Wikipedia article on Saffir-Simpson scale:

Most weather agencies use the definition for sustained winds recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which specifies measuring winds at a height of 33 ft (10.1 m) for 10 minutes, and then taking the average. By contrast, the U.S. National Weather Service, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center defines sustained winds as average winds over a period of one minute, measured at the same 33 ft (10.1 m) height.

So... Mr Decus, care to explain why one is more ACCURATE than the other?

One minute is waaay too close to the duration of gusts present in the hurricane. If you want an average that varies wildly over 10 adjacent observations , thats the way to go..

or you can get a more accurate average by choosing your observation period to be longer than the duration of confounding events. Rare occasion, buut WMO in this case is the better advice. Ive sat thru a dozen hurricanes and trop storms.. 1 minute is nowhere long enogh.

 

[Abraham3]

So. Complete cop out. To be expected I guess.

Decus (and anyone else reading this nonsense). There is NO increase in accuracy averaging windspeed for ten minutes vice doing it for one minute. The choice is an arbitrary one.

 

[Abraham3]

Found a comment on windspeed measurement in the Wikipedia article on Saffir-Simpson scale:

Most weather agencies use the definition for sustained winds recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which specifies measuring winds at a height of 33 ft (10.1 m) for 10 minutes, and then taking the average. By contrast, the U.S. National Weather Service, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center defines sustained winds as average winds over a period of one minute, measured at the same 33 ft (10.1 m) height.

So... Mr Decus, care to explain why one is more ACCURATE than the other?

One minute is waaay too close to the duration of gusts present in the hurricane. If you want an average that varies wildly over 10 adjacent observations , thats the way to go..

or you can get a more accurate average by choosing your observation period to be longer than the duration of confounding events. Rare occasion, buut WMO in this case is the better advice. Ive sat thru a dozen hurricanes and trop storms.. 1 minute is nowhere long enogh.

I've lived in Florida since 1971. I've been through a few hurricanes. Wind gusts come no where NEAR a minute in length.

Where do you get off constantly trying to correct your betters? Do you actually think you know hurricanes better than the NWS and NHC?

 

[TheSeventhTiger]

maybe they need to rename it? Typhoon Barry?

 

[flacaltenn]

So. Complete cop out. To be expected I guess.

Decus (and anyone else reading this nonsense). There is NO increase in accuracy averaging windspeed for ten minutes vice doing it for one minute. The choice is an arbitrary one.

What a performance... you really dont know jack about statistics do you? Or the diff between measuring storm gusts and averages. You made one of the stupidest statements ever uttered in this forum and you are declaring victory?

Abraham says

The length of time over which the wind speed is averaged HAS NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on how accurate the measurement might be

which is stupendously ignorant if your goal is to arrive at an AVERAGE wind speed. No averaging at all rqrd for peak winds or gusts. And when im back on a real computer, ill set you straight about the duration of hurricane gusts.

 

[ScienceRocks]

maybe they need to rename it? Typhoon Barry?

Does everything with you need to be about our president?

 

[spirit_in_decay]

Just good ol' mother nature trying to regulate the population. Send some of that destruction toward the east coast and California. There's too many people in the world.

 

[BDBoop]

/unsub

 

[Decus]

So. Complete cop out. To be expected I guess.

Decus (and anyone else reading this nonsense). There is NO increase in accuracy averaging windspeed for ten minutes vice doing it for one minute. The choice is an arbitrary one.

Once again. Why do you think flying into a storm and taking measurements is more accurate than making estimations from satellite data? You really seem to have a problem with reality. If it doesn't conform to your fantasy, you ignore whatever facts are presented to you.

"In the Atlantic, hurricane hunter aircraft directly sample the conditions inside storms. But typhoon strength in the western Pacific is estimated from satellite data, which are less precise."

Typhoon Haiyan makes landfall in Philippines - The Washington Post

 

[ScienceRocks]

Are you fucking kidding?

Satellite estimates can be off a good 20 knots depending on size of storm. lol

I've seen hurricanes weaker and stronger then the estimates based on recon data. Many, many times throughout my years of watching them. Smaller storms are typically underestimated as "depressions" within the BOC/Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean have been found to be 10-20 knots stronger then the estimates. Just this season 2 systems were upgraded based just on recon; Barry and fernda within the BOC that probably wouldn't of based just on estimates.

1.0t sab/tafb ratings based on satellite have been found by recon to have 35-45 knot winds. Larger storms like sometimes have the opposite effect.

 

[Decus]

Are you fucking kidding?

Satellite estimates can be off a good 20 knots depending on size of storm. lol

I've seen hurricanes weaker and stronger then the estimates based on recon data. Many, many times throughout my years of watching them. Smaller storms are typically underestimated as "depressions" within the BOC/Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean have been found to be 10-20 knots stronger then the estimates. Just this season 2 systems were upgraded based just on recon; Barry and fernda within the BOC that probably wouldn't of based just on estimates.

1.0t sab/tafb ratings based on satellite have been found by recon to have 35-45 knot winds. Larger storms like sometimes have the opposite effect.

I agree. Although your first sentence had me stumped at first - I wasn't sure who you were disagreeing with.

 

[Abraham3]

So. Complete cop out. To be expected I guess.

Decus (and anyone else reading this nonsense). There is NO increase in accuracy averaging windspeed for ten minutes vice doing it for one minute. The choice is an arbitrary one.

What a performance... you really dont know jack about statistics do you? Or the diff between measuring storm gusts and averages. You made one of the stupidest statements ever uttered in this forum and you are declaring victory?

Abraham says

The length of time over which the wind speed is averaged HAS NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on how accurate the measurement might be

which is stupendously ignorant if your goal is to arrive at an AVERAGE wind speed. No averaging at all rqrd for peak winds or gusts. And when im back on a real computer, ill set you straight about the duration of hurricane gusts.

Stupendously ignorant eh. Okay, once again, EXPLAIN TO US HOW IT AFFECTS ACCURACY. Show us that a ten minute average is more accurate than a one minute average.

 

[westwall]

So. Complete cop out. To be expected I guess.

Decus (and anyone else reading this nonsense). There is NO increase in accuracy averaging windspeed for ten minutes vice doing it for one minute. The choice is an arbitrary one.

What a performance... you really dont know jack about statistics do you? Or the diff between measuring storm gusts and averages. You made one of the stupidest statements ever uttered in this forum and you are declaring victory?

Abraham says

The length of time over which the wind speed is averaged HAS NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on how accurate the measurement might be

which is stupendously ignorant if your goal is to arrive at an AVERAGE wind speed. No averaging at all rqrd for peak winds or gusts. And when im back on a real computer, ill set you straight about the duration of hurricane gusts.

It becomes ever more apparent, with every post he makes, that ole abe can't wipe his own ass without help.

 

[Abraham3]

So. Complete cop out. To be expected I guess.

Decus (and anyone else reading this nonsense). There is NO increase in accuracy averaging windspeed for ten minutes vice doing it for one minute. The choice is an arbitrary one.

Once again. Why do you think flying into a storm and taking measurements is more accurate than making estimations from satellite data?

Since I've never expressed an opinion concerning that question I don't know where you've gotten the idea that you know what I think about it.

You really seem to have a problem with reality.

I've not been doing a fraction of the unforced fantasizing you've been enjoying.

If it doesn't conform to your fantasy, you ignore whatever facts are presented to you.

I think a more accurate way to express that is that I have an understanding of how the universe works (in most regards) and where I'm confident of that knowledge, I resist alternative explanations. You do the same. Most folks do. It just seems that, apparently, we have different understandings as to how parts of the universe work.

"In the Atlantic, hurricane hunter aircraft directly sample the conditions inside storms. But typhoon strength in the western Pacific is estimated from satellite data, which are less precise."

Your original claim was that averaging windspeed over a ten minute span gave a more "accurate" result than averaging it over a one minute span. I disagree. But I never brought up aircraft versus satellites and have expressed no opinion on that point.

I'm not particularly interested in talking with you (Decus), but FlaCalTenn's decision to jump on your bandwagon has me hoping. He's made several of what I'd call "rash statements" and I plan to enjoy watching him eat them for us.

 

[Abraham3]

It becomes ever more apparent, with every post he makes, that ole abe can't wipe his own ass without help.

Tell you what, why don't you help ole FlaCalTenn to explain to us how a ten minute average is more accurate than a one minute average.

 

[ScienceRocks]

The maximum sustained wind associated with a tropical cyclone is a common indicator of the intensity of the storm. Within a mature tropical cyclone, it is found within the eyewall at a distance defined as the radius of maximum wind, or RMW. Unlike gusts, the value of these winds are determined via their sampling and averaging the sampled results over a period of time. Wind measuring has been standardized globally to reflect the winds at 10 metres (33 ft) above the Earth's surface, and the maximum sustained wind represents the highest average wind over either a one-minute (US) or ten-minute time span (see the definition, below), anywhere within the tropical cyclone. Surface winds are highly variable due to friction between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface, as well as near hills and mountains over land

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind

The Bureau of Meteorology uses a 10 minute averaging time for reporting the sustained (i.e. relatively long-lasting) winds. The maximum sustained wind are the highest 10 minute surface winds occurring within the circulation of the cyclone. These surface winds are those observed (or, more often, estimated) to occur at the standard meteorological height of 10 m having an unobstructed exposure.

Gusts are a wind peak lasting for just a few seconds. Typically, in a cyclone environment the value for a peak gust is about 25 % higher than a 10 minute sustained wind. Barrow Island and Mardie sustained wind and wind gust profile during TC Monty (2004).

NOTE: USA agencies, who have responsibility for issuing tropical cyclone warnings in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific tropical cyclone basins, use a 1 minute averaging time for sustained winds. While one can utilize a simple ratio to convert from peak 10 min. wind to peak 1 min. wind (roughly 12% higher for the latter), such systematic differences tend to make inter-basin comparison of tropical cyclones around the world problematic.
Frequently Asked Questions

They're the same but different averaging time spans. I prefer the 1 minute of course

 

[Old Rocks]

Still a lack of news out of the central part of the Philippines, due to the extreme damage, but they are now talking about as high as 10,000 dead in just one area. I see where the Europeans and the US are putting in disaster teams and relief supplies are being gathered. Our heavy lift airbases are essential in operations like this, and all nations, including Russia and China, should join in the costs of the maintenance of them, as we should share in some of the costs of like bases if they allow similiar use in such situations. When Mexico City was devastated by that earthquake, I saw that monster Russian cargo plan sitting in McChord, getting refuelded and serviced, on it's way there to deliver medical supplies.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Still a lack of news out of the central part of the Philippines, due to the extreme damage, but they are now talking about as high as 10,000 dead in just one area. I see where the Europeans and the US are putting in disaster teams and relief supplies are being gathered. Our heavy lift airbases are essential in operations like this, and all nations, including Russia and China, should join in the costs of the maintenance of them, as we should share in some of the costs of like bases if they allow similiar use in such situations. When Mexico City was devastated by that earthquake, I saw that monster Russian cargo plan sitting in McChord, getting refuelded and serviced, on it's way there to deliver medical supplies.

My God! It's like Christmas came early for the AGWCult. the only thing better would have been if there was a school shooting as the typhoon struck