Q1 2019 watch - if under 3.0% - where is Trump’s economic miracle - can Trump beat O’s 2.9% ever?

[NotfooledbyW]

meant it's not and advantage to have good economic numbers at the beginning of his term, shit for brains.

The beginning of TrumpO’s term had Obama’s good economic numbers. The first major economic legislation was not signed by TrumpO until December 2017. Then in TrumpO’s first full year the GDP was 2.9% and that’s been it.

2019 is looking to come in at 2 to 2.5.

I just don’t accept TrumpO’s braggadocio that he created the greatest economy in US history as I watch all the real shits for brains believe the asswipe President they worship. .

 

[Socratica]

meant it's not and advantage to have good economic numbers at the beginning of his term, shit for brains.

The beginning of TrumpO’s term had Obama’s good economic numbers. The first major economic legislation was not signed by TrumpO until December 2017. Then in TrumpO’s first full year the GDP was 2.9% and that’s been it.

2019 is looking to come in at 2 to 2.5.

I just don’t accept TrumpO’s braggadocio that he created the greatest economy in US history as I watch all the real shits for brains believe the asswipe President they worship. .

Whoever is in office gets the credit for the economy.

 

[gtopa1]

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

 

[Socratica]

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

What about Q2? GDP is calculated quarterly at an annualized rate...

 

[gtopa1]

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

What about Q2? GDP is calculated quarterly at an annualized rate...

What NOT about it?

Greg

 

[Socratica]

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

What about Q2? GDP is calculated quarterly at an annualized rate...

What NOT about it?

Greg

You asked a question about Q2? I'm asking you what about Q2 is so important. I also mentioned (for your reference) how quarterly GDP was calculated, justed to avoid confusion.

 

[gtopa1]

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

What about Q2? GDP is calculated quarterly at an annualized rate...

What NOT about it?

Greg

You asked a question about Q2? I'm asking you what about Q2 is so important. I also mentioned (for your reference) how quarterly GDP was calculated, justed to avoid confusion.

Why would I be confused? And why do you think it would be important?

Greg

Greg

 

[Socratica]

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

What about Q2? GDP is calculated quarterly at an annualized rate...

What NOT about it?

Greg

You asked a question about Q2? I'm asking you what about Q2 is so important. I also mentioned (for your reference) how quarterly GDP was calculated, justed to avoid confusion.

Why would I be confused? And why do you think it would be important?

Greg

Greg

I don't know. I'm asking you.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

It is not published till 26 July (if I am not mistaken).

 

[Ropey]

 

[NotfooledbyW]

Socratica, post: 22695739.

Whoever is in office gets the credit for the economy.

True, but those who look upon the world realistically fully understand that there is a generous period time, not fixed or set in stone, right after an inauguration that the economic conditions carry over from the preceding president to the next.

If you believe that the economy responds and changes momentum from good to bad or from bad to good based on Inauguration Day Activities then you are quite the fool.

If you believe that the economy responds in varying degrees to legislative policy when enacted then you wouid get what I am sayingZ

I don’t believe in the cult of personality ideas that Trump winning the election in 2016 is what turned a horrid seven years of economy into the greatest economy in US history mainly because the economic data defies all insane notions that ttat couid be true.

 

[NotfooledbyW]

“The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. L”

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

It is not published till 26 July (if I am not mistaken).

Do you truly believe the BEA waits until the 25th of July before crunching the past 100 days of data that goes into making that chart?

Or

• The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an “advance” (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymakers have the Fed Board staff projection of this “advance” estimate at their disposal. These projections—available through 2008 at the Philadelphia Fed’s Real Time Data Center—have generally been more accurate than forecasts from simple statistical models. As stated by economists Jon Faust and Jonathan H. Wright in a 2009 paper, “by mirroring key elements of the data construction machinery of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Fed staff forms a relatively precise estimate of what BEA will announce for the previous quarter’s GDP even before it is announced.”
  
  The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “nowcast” GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add “color” to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids.
  
  The BEA’s advance estimates of the subcomponents of GDP use publicly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources. Much of this data is displayed in the BEA’s Key Source Data and Assumptions table that accompanies the “advance” GDP estimate. GDPNow relates these source data to their corresponding GDP subcomponents using a “bridge equation” approach similar to the one described in a Minneapolis Fed study by Preston J. Miller and Daniel M. Chin. Whenever the monthly source data is not available, the missing values are forecasted using econometric techniques similar to those described in papers by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson and Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, and David Small. A detailed description of the data sources and methods used in the GDPNow model is provided in an accompanying Atlanta Fed working paper.
  
  As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.
  
  ©2017 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. All rights reserved. Permission is granted to reproduce for personal and educational use only.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

“The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. L”

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

It is not published till 26 July (if I am not mistaken).

Do you truly believe the BEA waits until the 25th of July before crunching the past 100 days of data that goes into making that chart?

Or

• The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an “advance” (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymakers have the Fed Board staff projection of this “advance” estimate at their disposal. These projections—available through 2008 at the Philadelphia Fed’s Real Time Data Center—have generally been more accurate than forecasts from simple statistical models. As stated by economists Jon Faust and Jonathan H. Wright in a 2009 paper, “by mirroring key elements of the data construction machinery of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Fed staff forms a relatively precise estimate of what BEA will announce for the previous quarter’s GDP even before it is announced.”
  
  The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “nowcast” GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add “color” to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids.
  
  The BEA’s advance estimates of the subcomponents of GDP use publicly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources. Much of this data is displayed in the BEA’s Key Source Data and Assumptions table that accompanies the “advance” GDP estimate. GDPNow relates these source data to their corresponding GDP subcomponents using a “bridge equation” approach similar to the one described in a Minneapolis Fed study by Preston J. Miller and Daniel M. Chin. Whenever the monthly source data is not available, the missing values are forecasted using econometric techniques similar to those described in papers by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson and Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, and David Small. A detailed description of the data sources and methods used in the GDPNow model is provided in an accompanying Atlanta Fed working paper.
  
  As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.
  
  [emoji767]2017 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. All rights reserved. Permission is granted to reproduce for personal and educational use only.

I believe that the data comes from multiple disparate sources and that the BEA gathers them and provides the report in a timely enough manner.


Sent from my iPhone using USMessageBoard.com

 

[Faun]

“The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. L”

Q2, Q2 What for art thou Q2???????

Greg

It is not published till 26 July (if I am not mistaken).

Do you truly believe the BEA waits until the 25th of July before crunching the past 100 days of data that goes into making that chart?

Or

• The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. For example, of the four scheduled 2014 release dates of an “advance” (or first) estimate of GDP growth, two are on the second day of a scheduled FOMC meeting with the other two on the day after the meeting. In preparation for FOMC meetings, policymakers have the Fed Board staff projection of this “advance” estimate at their disposal. These projections—available through 2008 at the Philadelphia Fed’s Real Time Data Center—have generally been more accurate than forecasts from simple statistical models. As stated by economists Jon Faust and Jonathan H. Wright in a 2009 paper, “by mirroring key elements of the data construction machinery of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Fed staff forms a relatively precise estimate of what BEA will announce for the previous quarter’s GDP even before it is announced.”
  
  The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “nowcast” GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add “color” to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids.
  
  The BEA’s advance estimates of the subcomponents of GDP use publicly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources. Much of this data is displayed in the BEA’s Key Source Data and Assumptions table that accompanies the “advance” GDP estimate. GDPNow relates these source data to their corresponding GDP subcomponents using a “bridge equation” approach similar to the one described in a Minneapolis Fed study by Preston J. Miller and Daniel M. Chin. Whenever the monthly source data is not available, the missing values are forecasted using econometric techniques similar to those described in papers by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson and Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, and David Small. A detailed description of the data sources and methods used in the GDPNow model is provided in an accompanying Atlanta Fed working paper.
  
  As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments. It is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.
  
  ©2017 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. All rights reserved. Permission is granted to reproduce for personal and educational use only.

Forecasts are typically wildly off.

 

[Socratica]

Socratica, post: 22695739.

True, but those who look upon the world realistically fully understand that there is a generous period time, not fixed or set in stone, right after an inauguration that the economic conditions carry over from the preceding president to the next.

If you believe that the economy responds and changes momentum from good to bad or from bad to good based on Inauguration Day Activities then you are quite the fool.

Economic policy operates with outside and inside lag times, so whether this premise is true or not is irrelevant. If the economy is performing better in relative terms compared to last year, the people in charge will get the credit.

If you believe that the economy responds in varying degrees to legislative policy when enacted then you wouid get what I am sayingZ

I don’t believe in the cult of personality ideas that Trump winning the election in 2016 is what turned a horrid seven years of economy into the greatest economy in US history mainly because the economic data defies all insane notions that ttat couid be true.

Economic activity, relative to previous years, appears to be performing noticeably better. That's not debatable

 

[bripat9643]

meant it's not and advantage to have good economic numbers at the beginning of his term, shit for brains.

The beginning of TrumpO’s term had Obama’s good economic numbers. The first major economic legislation was not signed by TrumpO until December 2017. Then in TrumpO’s first full year the GDP was 2.9% and that’s been it.

2019 is looking to come in at 2 to 2.5.

I just don’t accept TrumpO’s braggadocio that he created the greatest economy in US history as I watch all the real shits for brains believe the asswipe President they worship. .

Repealing government regulations has a big effect on the economy, and he started doing that the day after his inauguration.

Nobody cares what you accept.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

WTH_Progs?, post: 22695240, member

He was referencing common sense, math, logic and economics..

Does that mean you agree with the common sense, math, logic and economics reality that TrumpO inherited good economic conditions from President Obama?

Why wouldn't I? Someone said it best using the analogy of a baseball team. Obama took over a losing baseball team high on talent. He brought them to nearly a playoff team, Trump took over and they won the championship.

I also know enough about common sense, math, logic and economics to say "good economics from Obama" is a misnomer. Obama did little to improve the economy. In fact the bottom occurred on his watch. He didn't bring confidence, which is one reason recovery was slow.

Don't look now, but I suspect some recession soon. We need one on occasion, so long as the reasons for aren't critical, such as 9-11 and the housing CRASH!

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

WTH_Progs?, post: 22695240, member

He was referencing common sense, math, logic and economics..

Does that mean you agree with the common sense, math, logic and economics reality that TrumpO inherited good economic conditions from President Obama?

Why wouldn't I? Someone said it best using the analogy of a baseball team. Obama took over a losing baseball team high on talent. He brought them to nearly a playoff team, Trump took over and they won the championship.

I also know enough about common sense, math, logic and economics to say "good economics from Obama" is a misnomer. Obama did little to improve the economy. In fact the bottom occurred on his watch. He didn't bring confidence, which is one reason recovery was slow.

Don't look now, but I suspect some recession soon. We need one on occasion, so long as the reasons for aren't critical, such as 9-11 and the housing CRASH!

Obama did little to improve the economy.

Correct. Many of his actions were damaging to the economy.

 

[WTH_Progs?]

WTH_Progs?, post: 22695240, member

He was referencing common sense, math, logic and economics..

Does that mean you agree with the common sense, math, logic and economics reality that TrumpO inherited good economic conditions from President Obama?

Why wouldn't I? Someone said it best using the analogy of a baseball team. Obama took over a losing baseball team high on talent. He brought them to nearly a playoff team, Trump took over and they won the championship.

I also know enough about common sense, math, logic and economics to say "good economics from Obama" is a misnomer. Obama did little to improve the economy. In fact the bottom occurred on his watch. He didn't bring confidence, which is one reason recovery was slow.

Don't look now, but I suspect some recession soon. We need one on occasion, so long as the reasons for aren't critical, such as 9-11 and the housing CRASH!

Obama did little to improve the economy.

Correct. Many of his actions were damaging to the economy.

More than that his POTUS was damaging to our society. Identity politics was built on his watch. He and progs built the snowflake. They taught us to question everything from country, to patriotism to gender. They taught people how to defend themselves by flashing race and gender cards. They taught us justice and ethics vary based on party affiliation, and so far not a one was held accountable.

 

[Faun]

WTH_Progs?, post: 22695240, member

He was referencing common sense, math, logic and economics..

Does that mean you agree with the common sense, math, logic and economics reality that TrumpO inherited good economic conditions from President Obama?

Why wouldn't I? Someone said it best using the analogy of a baseball team. Obama took over a losing baseball team high on talent. He brought them to nearly a playoff team, Trump took over and they won the championship.

I also know enough about common sense, math, logic and economics to say "good economics from Obama" is a misnomer. Obama did little to improve the economy. In fact the bottom occurred on his watch. He didn't bring confidence, which is one reason recovery was slow.

Don't look now, but I suspect some recession soon. We need one on occasion, so long as the reasons for aren't critical, such as 9-11 and the housing CRASH!

"Obama took over a losing baseball team high on talent. He brought them to nearly a playoff team, Trump took over and they won the championship."

Which is why about half of those polled, don't credit trump with the economy. You can't make the championship game unless you make the playoffs.