AnCap'n_Murica
Gold Member
- Jul 21, 2016
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It's almost like 1980 all over again.
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Fucking pay for play is a fucking crime.But now in the last few weeks, as people are finding out more and more about Hillary's crimes
What fucking crimes? Planting laptop at Weiner's place with lewd emails to underage girls?
Is that why the realclear poll average has called every election right since the realclear average has been around?
What is that three elections that did not have an incumbent?
I am not impressed.
It's almost like 1980 all over again.
It's almost like 1980 all over again.
Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.
The polls are still over-sampled like crazy, Trump is leading big time...
The polls are still over-sampled like crazy, Trump is leading big time...
Will find out in a week, won't we?
Tell you what, if you are so certain why don't we put an avatar wager on it?
Trump wins I'll put on a beautiful avatar of pearlin' Trump pic of your choosing, complete with vulgarity free text of your choosing.
Clinton wins, you put on similar style Clinton avatar of my choice.
View attachment 96257It's almost like 1980 all over again.
Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.
I was talking about the polls, not that Trumpenfurher is analogous to Reagan.
Once the polls are back in the margins of error, what people have been talking about, the "hidden" Trump vote, comes into play. That and some over adjustment due to perceptions about democratic turnout, which will probably not approach 2012, and will definitely not approach 2008.
What is your best estimate of the Bradley/Brexit effect in this election?
I am guessing right about 10%+
And Jimmah was no Hillary, by any stretch of the same imagination. He was actually honest in his own way, merely incompetent and misguided.Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.
I will be out of the forum once the election is over in any case... but if you wanna bet. Clearly you are not rational as a Clinton voter anyway.
You can stop right there.Trump is far more popular than Romney and got huge numbers of votes more than Romney did.
I will be out of the forum once the election is over in any case... but if you wanna bet. Clearly you are not rational as a Clinton voter anyway.
That's good. You may as well start looking for a nice comfy corner to cry in now - it's not going to be pretty.
And Jimmah was no Hillary.Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.
I think the under represented Trump supporters are higher than that, as it was an 8% swing with Brexit and some studies put it at 5%.Under 5, which is why the polls being within the MOE makes me thing we may be in for a surprise.
But frankly Hillary winning by 100 or so EV's wouldn't surprise me either. The electorate is simply too volatile for accurate predictions.
RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and other sites are pretty selective about the polls they use in averages and models. The decision to include or not relates to methodology, history of the pollster, accuracy in the past, etc.The Real Clear Politics average is also stacked and leaves out many polls that showed Trump in the lead.
Trump took in more votes than Romney did, so that Trump is more popular is simply a fact, whether you like that fact or not.Trump isn't more popular than Romney. His one advantage on Romney is that the folks that like him are very motivated by him. More folks like Romney, they just weren't as motivated.