Restaurant die-off is first course of California’s $15 minimum wage

[Syriusly]

Restaurant die-off is first course of California’s $15 minimum wage

In a pair of affluent coastal California counties, the canary in the mineshaft has gotten splayed, spatchcocked and plated over a bed of unintended consequences, garnished with sprigs of locally sourced economic distortion and non-GMO, “What the heck were they thinking?”

The result of one early experiment in a citywide $15 minimum wage is an ominous sign for the state’s poorer inland counties as the statewide wage floor creeps toward the mark.

Consider San Francisco, an early adopter of the $15 wage. It’s now experiencing a restaurant die-off, minting jobless hash-slingers, cashiers, busboys, scullery engineers and line cooks as they get pink-slipped in increasing numbers. And the wage there hasn’t yet hit $15.

As the East Bay Times reported in January, at least 60 restaurants around the Bay Area had closed since September alone.

A recent study by Michael Luca at Harvard Business School and Dara Lee Luca at Mathematica Policy Research found that every $1 hike in the minimum wage brings a 14 percent increase in the likelihood of a 3.5-star restaurant on Yelp! closing.

Another telltale is San Diego, where voters approved increasing the city’s minimum wage to $11.50 per hour from $10.50, this after the minimum wage was increased from $8 an hour in 2015 – meaning hourly costs have risen 43 percent in two years.

The cost increases have pushed San Diego restaurants to the brink, Stephen Zolezzi, president of the Food and Beverage Association of San Diego County, told the San Diego Business Journal. Watch for the next mass die-off there...

Luckily, I live in the central coast area between L.A. and San Francisco, so this area hasn't gone as extreme left as those parts of California.

I eat in Seattle fairly often where they have the $15 minimum wage. The only change I've seen is some restaurants have raised their prices. Possibly a few marginally profitable restaurants have closed. Other than that it's about the same. New restaurants are opening daily, the population is growing over 1,000 a week, and unemployment has dropped to 2.9%, not exactly the predicted disaster when the minimum wage increase was proposed.

Why would anyone eat in Seattle when the same restaurant is usually down the road in Tacoma, Renton, Bellevue, Puyallup, or any other number of cities without the added costs?

Tell me the economic sense to drive 30 miles each way to save $10.00 on a meal?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Maybe they should not pass the wage increase on to the consumer. Sooner or later these business owners need to take the hit.

You really think they are closing profitable businesses.....?

Fool.

 

[Wyatt earp]

Proving how stupid you really are?



.

How do you get "top poster of the month" with the stupid shit you post?

Raise the prices enough and people will stop going and will start eating at home.

How will the employees buy their food to eat at home if they are unemployed?

Food stamps!

Our current president wants to cut foodstamps.

In case you didn't know , Americans are becoming to fat and obesity has surpassed smoking as the number one preventable killer...he knows what's best for you, you don't know what's best for you.



.

You have be able to "lead by example" for the militia of the United States.

Our military is not fat , but you are, so instead of hating Trump you should be glad he is cutting your food stamps, now if he just got rid of your Obama phone.....


.

 

[danielpalos]

Good Capitalists like Henry Ford, doubled autoworker wages not minimum wages.

Which is why private industry should control it, not government. OTOH, I would support stopping "corporate welfare" or, at least, restricting it to companies who pay wages based on the local economy. Obviously someone in New York or San Francisco needs to make more money to survive than someone in Crestview, FL or Abilene, TX.

Only lousy capitalists complain about wages instead of achieving gains from efficiency.

Efficiency for a business is maximizing profit. This can be done through either increased production, cutting costs or a combination of both. Unfortunately, since the early 1970s, corporations offer the illusion of cutting costs by cutting employees and making the remaining employees work harder for the same pay. This hurts moral and the company can enter a death spiral resulting in bankruptcy. Bankruptcy laws allow restructuring and there's been a trend to make people work harder for less money while major investors and senior management see their pay increase. Mandating minimum wage doesn't fix this and anyone who thinks it does is fooling themselves. Sometimes it's more profitable for a company to simply cash in by dissolving itself completely or moving to another state. I think we'll start to see that in California. Again, governments run on taxes, but if there is no one to tax, where will they get their money?

Solving simple poverty removes that issue for Labor. And, social services cost around fourteen dollars an hour, anyway.

Democrats declared War on Poverty in the 1960s. How's that coming and why is it taking so long?

We have the "richest poor in the World". Even our current president thinks our poor must be, "too rich" and he needs to cut social spending on them.

 

[Syriusly]

There are Californians leaving California- and others coming here- more coming than leaving.

Which is why real estate prices are sky rocketing. Increased demand- higher prices.

Good for those of us who have lived here for a long time- hard on those whose housing isn't stable.

So why would anyone go to a state with unstable housing?

BTW, you're either fooling yourself on those numbers or smoking too much Golden State weed.

Golden state population trends | first tuesday Journal
California’s population grew at a rate of 0.7% in 2016. While still positive, this continues a downward trend in growth rate from the prior year. The annual rate of population growth is usually closer to 1%.

County-level data released in July 2016 show population increases in all of California’s most populous counties. However, reflecting the statewide trend, annual growth was lower than the prior year in each of these counties. Among the ten largest counties, Alameda, Contra Costa and Riverside Counties saw the highest growth from 2014 to 2015. The lowest population growth rate took place in Los Angeles County, which increased just 0.5% in 2015.

Steady population growth is essential for a long-term, stable housing market. The rate of California’s population growth, while continuing up, is forecasted to vary in step with other economic and political factors, bringing with it new household formations and demand for residential rentals and sales.

While still positive, this continues a downward trend in growth rate from the prior year.

Okay- tell me- why have home values skyrocketed? Business real estate prices sky rocketed?

Yes- skyrocketing home prices are keeping people away- but the reason for the sky rocketing prices is pretty simple- higher demand than inventory.

No worries. Enjoy living in your bubble.

Its kind of a pain in the ass living in a place that is so much in demand. My neighborhood is gentrifying and losing some of its authenticity. New restaurants open all the time- and too many of the older neighborhood restaurants are pushed out by the higher rents.

That being said- better to be in a city with a thriving economy than one with no economy.

If "thriving" means long-term stability and sustainable, I agree. If it's headed for a cliff, then you don't want to be around when it hits, especially for homeowners who end up underwater on their loans.

I have lived in San Francisco for a few decades- through 2 'bubbles'- this is the largest one. (of course one of the previous ones was nationwide).

When the bubble burst- the ripple effects were strongest the furthest from San Francisco- and simply stopped home prices from going up in San Francisco.

Is this a bubble? Or is it a long term trend?

Well long term- the price of real estate in the Bay Area has consistantly gone up and up.

 

[danielpalos]

Let me just add another example. When I order Papa Johns, I have to pay $10.99 for a cheese pizza, pay the owner's sales tax for him, pay a $3.69 delivery fee, and then tip the driver on top of it (paying the employee's wage for the owner).

$10.99 (pizza) + 0.91 (tax) + $3.69 (delivery fee) + $5.00 (tip) = $20.59 for one fucking pizza. But damn, that pizza shop owner must be poor!!

Solution: Stop ordering fucking pizza. Frozen pizza = $6. Bake it yourself in 30 minutes.

I like my pizza like I like my women; HotnReady.

Do you get any toppings on your womens?

i like the "coconut oil sauce."

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

Let me just add another example. When I order Papa Johns, I have to pay $10.99 for a cheese pizza, pay the owner's sales tax for him, pay a $3.69 delivery fee, and then tip the driver on top of it (paying the employee's wage for the owner).

$10.99 (pizza) + 0.91 (tax) + $3.69 (delivery fee) + $5.00 (tip) = $20.59 for one fucking pizza. But damn, that pizza shop owner must be poor!!

Solution: Stop ordering fucking pizza. Frozen pizza = $6. Bake it yourself in 30 minutes.

I like my pizza like I like my women; HotnReady.

Do you get any toppings on your womens?

i like the "coconut oil sauce."

Well played.

 

[Wyatt earp]

How will the employees buy their food to eat at home if they are unemployed?

Food stamps!

Our current president wants to cut foodstamps.

In case you didn't know , Americans are becoming to fat and obesity has surpassed smoking as the number one preventable killer...he knows what's best for you, you don't know what's best for you.



.

You have be able to "lead by example" for the militia of the United States.

Our military is not fat , but you are, so instead of hating Trump you should be glad he is cutting your food stamps, now if he just got rid of your Obama phone.....


.

Why is that; I try to "engage in Commerce" with that. The right wing believes we only need prayers.

Prayers do miracles... Hillary lost and the Democrats lost the Senate...they were both supposed to win in a landslide.



.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Maybe they should not pass the wage increase on to the consumer. Sooner or later these business owners need to take the hit.

Kill the greedy kulaks, eh comrade?

 

[Divine Wind]

So why would anyone go to a state with unstable housing?

BTW, you're either fooling yourself on those numbers or smoking too much Golden State weed.

Golden state population trends | first tuesday Journal
California’s population grew at a rate of 0.7% in 2016. While still positive, this continues a downward trend in growth rate from the prior year. The annual rate of population growth is usually closer to 1%.

County-level data released in July 2016 show population increases in all of California’s most populous counties. However, reflecting the statewide trend, annual growth was lower than the prior year in each of these counties. Among the ten largest counties, Alameda, Contra Costa and Riverside Counties saw the highest growth from 2014 to 2015. The lowest population growth rate took place in Los Angeles County, which increased just 0.5% in 2015.

Steady population growth is essential for a long-term, stable housing market. The rate of California’s population growth, while continuing up, is forecasted to vary in step with other economic and political factors, bringing with it new household formations and demand for residential rentals and sales.

While still positive, this continues a downward trend in growth rate from the prior year.

Okay- tell me- why have home values skyrocketed? Business real estate prices sky rocketed?

Yes- skyrocketing home prices are keeping people away- but the reason for the sky rocketing prices is pretty simple- higher demand than inventory.

No worries. Enjoy living in your bubble.

Its kind of a pain in the ass living in a place that is so much in demand. My neighborhood is gentrifying and losing some of its authenticity. New restaurants open all the time- and too many of the older neighborhood restaurants are pushed out by the higher rents.

That being said- better to be in a city with a thriving economy than one with no economy.

If "thriving" means long-term stability and sustainable, I agree. If it's headed for a cliff, then you don't want to be around when it hits, especially for homeowners who end up underwater on their loans.

I have lived in San Francisco for a few decades- through 2 'bubbles'- this is the largest one. (of course one of the previous ones was nationwide).

When the bubble burst- the ripple effects were strongest the furthest from San Francisco- and simply stopped home prices from going up in San Francisco.

Is this a bubble? Or is it a long term trend?

Well long term- the price of real estate in the Bay Area has consistantly gone up and up.

Again, there is sustainable and unsustainable. Long-term stability and short-term stability.

 

[Markle]

Only lousy capitalists complain about wages instead of achieving gains from efficiency.

Thus, kiosks and robots. No breaks, no skipping shifts, and a fixed cost. You're right, problem solved.

 

[danielpalos]

Our current president wants to cut foodstamps.

In case you didn't know , Americans are becoming to fat and obesity has surpassed smoking as the number one preventable killer...he knows what's best for you, you don't know what's best for you.



.

You have be able to "lead by example" for the militia of the United States.

Our military is not fat , but you are, so instead of hating Trump you should be glad he is cutting your food stamps, now if he just got rid of your Obama phone.....


.

Why is that; I try to "engage in Commerce" with that. The right wing believes we only need prayers.

Prayers do miracles... Hillary lost and the Democrats lost the Senate...they were both supposed to win in a landslide.



.

The "rich guy from the North versus the relatively poor white girl from the South."

 

[danielpalos]

Only lousy capitalists complain about wages instead of achieving gains from efficiency.

Thus, kiosks and robots. No breaks, no skipping shifts, and a fixed cost. You're right, problem solved.

Unemployment compensation on an at-will basis simply for being unemployed.

 

[Wyatt earp]

In case you didn't know , Americans are becoming to fat and obesity has surpassed smoking as the number one preventable killer...he knows what's best for you, you don't know what's best for you.



.

You have be able to "lead by example" for the militia of the United States.

Our military is not fat , but you are, so instead of hating Trump you should be glad he is cutting your food stamps, now if he just got rid of your Obama phone.....


.

Why is that; I try to "engage in Commerce" with that. The right wing believes we only need prayers.

Prayers do miracles... Hillary lost and the Democrats lost the Senate...they were both supposed to win in a landslide.



.

The "rich guy from the North versus the relatively poor white girl from the South."

Since when is Chicago in the South?


.

 

[Penelope]

How do you get "top poster of the month" with the stupid shit you post?

Raise the prices enough and people will stop going and will start eating at home.

How will the employees buy their food to eat at home if they are unemployed?

Food stamps!

Our current president wants to cut foodstamps.

In case you didn't know , Americans are becoming to fat and obesity has surpassed smoking as the number one preventable killer...he knows what's best for you, you don't know what's best for you.



.

You have be able to "lead by example" for the militia of the United States.

Our military is not fat , but you are, so instead of hating Trump you should be glad he is cutting your food stamps, now if he just got rid of your Obama phone.....


.

Our cops are sure fat, many of them. I guess that is why they shoot ,they can't run.

 

[Penelope]

Maybe they should not pass the wage increase on to the consumer. Sooner or later these business owners need to take the hit.

Kill the greedy kulaks, eh comrade?

No , just let them pay a decent wage. If they can't run a efficient restaurant they should close.

 

[Markle]

There are Californians leaving California- and others coming here- more coming than leaving.

Which is why real estate prices are sky rocketing. Increased demand- higher prices.

Good for those of us who have lived here for a long time- hard on those whose housing isn't stable.

Just remember what happened the last time real estate prices were "skyrocketing".

As for people moving to California.

April 3, 2016
Money's leaving California in a hurry
By Silvio Canto, Jr.

[...]

The number of Californians leaving the state and moving to Texas is at its highest level in nearly a decade, according to datafrom the Internal Revenue Service.

According to IRS migration data, which uses individual income tax returns to record year-to-year address changes, over 250,000 California residents moved out of the state between 2013 and 2014, the latest period for which data was available. The tax returns reported more than $21 billion in adjusted gross income to the IRS.

Of the returns, 33,626 reported address changes from California to Texas, which has been the top destination for individuals leaving California since 2007. Californians who moved to Texas between 2013 and 2014 reported $2.19 billion in adjusted gross income.

The number of returns showing address changes from California to Texas hasn't been this high since the period 2006-07. During that period, 34,078 returns were filed showing address changes to Texas.

Fewer Texans moved to California during the 2013-14 period. The IRS reported 21,391 returns with address changes from Texas to California. The returns reported $1.56 billion in adjusted gross income.

"California's taxes and regulations are crushing businesses, and there are more opportunities in Texas for people to start new companies, get good jobs, and create better lives for their families," said Nathan Nascimento, the director of state initiatives at Freedom Partners. "When tax and regulatory climates are bad, people will move to better economic environments—this phenomenon isn't a mystery, it's how marketplaces work. Not only should other state governments take note of this, but so should the federal government."

[...]
Read more: Blog: Money's leaving California in a hurry

 

[Divine Wind]

Only lousy capitalists complain about wages instead of achieving gains from efficiency.

Thus, kiosks and robots. No breaks, no skipping shifts, and a fixed cost. You're right, problem solved.

Sometime in the near future:

<electronic voice> "Enjoy...your...dinner...sir....your credit card...will...be charged...$10.58."

 

[Markle]

Our current president wants to cut foodstamps.

Which is a great thing, is it not?

 

[danielpalos]

There are Californians leaving California- and others coming here- more coming than leaving.

Which is why real estate prices are sky rocketing. Increased demand- higher prices.

Good for those of us who have lived here for a long time- hard on those whose housing isn't stable.

Just remember what happened the last time real estate prices were "skyrocketing".

As for people moving to California.

April 3, 2016
Money's leaving California in a hurry
By Silvio Canto, Jr.

[...]

The number of Californians leaving the state and moving to Texas is at its highest level in nearly a decade, according to datafrom the Internal Revenue Service.

According to IRS migration data, which uses individual income tax returns to record year-to-year address changes, over 250,000 California residents moved out of the state between 2013 and 2014, the latest period for which data was available. The tax returns reported more than $21 billion in adjusted gross income to the IRS.

Of the returns, 33,626 reported address changes from California to Texas, which has been the top destination for individuals leaving California since 2007. Californians who moved to Texas between 2013 and 2014 reported $2.19 billion in adjusted gross income.

The number of returns showing address changes from California to Texas hasn't been this high since the period 2006-07. During that period, 34,078 returns were filed showing address changes to Texas.

Fewer Texans moved to California during the 2013-14 period. The IRS reported 21,391 returns with address changes from Texas to California. The returns reported $1.56 billion in adjusted gross income.

"California's taxes and regulations are crushing businesses, and there are more opportunities in Texas for people to start new companies, get good jobs, and create better lives for their families," said Nathan Nascimento, the director of state initiatives at Freedom Partners. "When tax and regulatory climates are bad, people will move to better economic environments—this phenomenon isn't a mystery, it's how marketplaces work. Not only should other state governments take note of this, but so should the federal government."

[...]
Read more: Blog: Money's leaving California in a hurry

California exports its poor to Texas, other states, while wealthier people move in