DGS49
Diamond Member
Mark Twain famously noted that there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
The reason why statistical lies are insidious is that they are “true” in one sense, but are intended to convey a message that is substantially false. Thus, you can’t actually call them “lies,” even though they carry all of the weight of a lie, being intended to convey a message that is false.
Democrat politicians have grown so used to employing such prevarical techniques, and a compliant media perpetually passes on these falsehoods to a gullible public, that it is necessary, I think, to occasionally point out the reasons WHY they are false, just to maintain my sanity. Here are a few of the main statistical manipulations:
“…average wages are stagnant or falling…” This statement gives the impression that PEOPLES’ wages are falling, which is not generally the case. If I employ 10 people at $20/hour, then hire two newbies at $12/hour, the average wage in my company falls from $20/hr to $18.67/hr, but no one’s pay has actually been reduced. And so it is with the economy. Younger workers are replacing older ones who are retiring, so the AVERAGE WAGE will go down. It DOESN’T mean that anyone’s actual wages are reduced.
“…worker’s wages are not keeping pace with productivity increases…” This one is very popular with Our Beloved President who sees it as an indication of the economy’s “unfairness.” But productivity increases rarely have anything to do with anyone actually working harder. If I employ four guys with picks and shovels to dig ditches for me, then replace them with a guy operating a backhoe, one worker can now do the work of four. But is the backhoe operator working harder than he was last week with a pick and shovel? Hardly. His work is dramatically easier, and yet his “productivity” has increased by 300%. Does he deserve a raise from $15/hr to $60…to keep pace with his increase in productivity? Of course not. And there is nothing “unfair” about paying him according to what backhoe operators make generally in the local economy.
“…the economy generated 200,000 (or whatever number) new jobs last month…” This statistic is worse than meaningless, without additional information. First of all, the economy REQUIRES 200+ thousand new jobs every month, just to keep pace with new people entering the workforce. Thus, there is no positive impact unless the number is much greater than 200 thousand (which has been the pattern for “recovery periods” until the current non-recovery recovery). Second, this number INCLUDES PART TIME JOBS, which is ridiculous. The meaningful number would be based on what personnel types call, “FTE’s” or full-time equivalents. Without knowing the composition of those 200 thousand jobs and putting it into context, the number is an intentional deception, and it is currently used to sell the fiction that the economy is improving under Our Beloved President.
“…all of the wage increases are going to the people at the top…” This is just a rehash of the old statistics that “proved” that the rich were getting richer and the poor were getting poorer (also baloney). These statistics imply that the people in the different statistical groupings ARE THE SAME PEOPLE OVER A PERIOD OF MANY YEARS. But the facts are different. The people in the top quintile or top 5% or top 1% - are largely different people every year, and the same is true for the people at the bottom. The statistics give the false impression that everyone belongs to a permanent class of people who will remain in their present privileged or wretched state for their entire lives. And yet for MOST PEOPLE this is not the case. They spend some time at the bottom and as they get older they move up. Life throws us curveballs from time to time, but generally this is the way it works.
And I’ll make a non-statistical point on a similar-type deception: Note how often politicians and people in the media use terms like “fortunate,” “disadvantaged,” and “privileged,” when they are referring to people at the ends of the economic spectrum. This is an insidious lie as well. It implies and assumes that the people being referred to have no responsibility for where they are economically, and it’s all a matter of luck. Imagine how people would react if sports reporters described the bottom teams in the league as being, “disadvantaged,” or “under-privileged,” or the league champions as being “fortunate.” Most people at the top are there because of some combination of (1) innate intelligence, (2) hard work, (3) personal sacrifice, and (4) intelligent risk-taking. Doctors make a lot of money because they are very intelligent and hard-working people who spend the first third of their lives working their asses off in order to be licensed physicians. Are the “fortunate” to be in the top couple percent of earners? Are they “privileged” (beyond what they are entitled to)? I don’t think so.
Conversely, most of the people at the bottom of the economic totem pole are there due to a combination of, (a) a relative lack of intelligence, (b) an unwillingness to dedicate themselves to productive employment, (c) a failure to recognize or pursue opportunities in front of them, and (d) horrible life choices (e.g., having children out of wedlock, engaging in illegal or irresponsible activities). In short, everyone is subject to the occasional “bad break,” but that doesn’t explain a life of poverty, on the dole.
Politicians and the media focus on examples that are contrary to the norm – bankers who became rich by exploiting the vulnerable, or engineers who lost their jobs and can’t find new employment – but it is insane to make public policy on the basis of outliers, even if it is politically beneficial.
Finally, a few words about the expression, “hard working.” Democrats mindlessly use the expression to describe political or demographic groups that they like. They talk about Davis Bacon as a law that protects “hard working” construction workers. And yet the people who are harmed by this stupid law – mainly non-union contractor employees, but also the Taxpayers – are they NOT as “hard working” as the union people? Think about it. The opposite is probably true.
It is very discouraging to realize that so many votes in this coming election will be based on false impressions that are the result of these statistical and semantic manipulations and misrepresentations. This phenomenon is largely why our national government and many of the states and local governments are bankrupt – in fact, if not legally.
The reason why statistical lies are insidious is that they are “true” in one sense, but are intended to convey a message that is substantially false. Thus, you can’t actually call them “lies,” even though they carry all of the weight of a lie, being intended to convey a message that is false.
Democrat politicians have grown so used to employing such prevarical techniques, and a compliant media perpetually passes on these falsehoods to a gullible public, that it is necessary, I think, to occasionally point out the reasons WHY they are false, just to maintain my sanity. Here are a few of the main statistical manipulations:
“…average wages are stagnant or falling…” This statement gives the impression that PEOPLES’ wages are falling, which is not generally the case. If I employ 10 people at $20/hour, then hire two newbies at $12/hour, the average wage in my company falls from $20/hr to $18.67/hr, but no one’s pay has actually been reduced. And so it is with the economy. Younger workers are replacing older ones who are retiring, so the AVERAGE WAGE will go down. It DOESN’T mean that anyone’s actual wages are reduced.
“…worker’s wages are not keeping pace with productivity increases…” This one is very popular with Our Beloved President who sees it as an indication of the economy’s “unfairness.” But productivity increases rarely have anything to do with anyone actually working harder. If I employ four guys with picks and shovels to dig ditches for me, then replace them with a guy operating a backhoe, one worker can now do the work of four. But is the backhoe operator working harder than he was last week with a pick and shovel? Hardly. His work is dramatically easier, and yet his “productivity” has increased by 300%. Does he deserve a raise from $15/hr to $60…to keep pace with his increase in productivity? Of course not. And there is nothing “unfair” about paying him according to what backhoe operators make generally in the local economy.
“…the economy generated 200,000 (or whatever number) new jobs last month…” This statistic is worse than meaningless, without additional information. First of all, the economy REQUIRES 200+ thousand new jobs every month, just to keep pace with new people entering the workforce. Thus, there is no positive impact unless the number is much greater than 200 thousand (which has been the pattern for “recovery periods” until the current non-recovery recovery). Second, this number INCLUDES PART TIME JOBS, which is ridiculous. The meaningful number would be based on what personnel types call, “FTE’s” or full-time equivalents. Without knowing the composition of those 200 thousand jobs and putting it into context, the number is an intentional deception, and it is currently used to sell the fiction that the economy is improving under Our Beloved President.
“…all of the wage increases are going to the people at the top…” This is just a rehash of the old statistics that “proved” that the rich were getting richer and the poor were getting poorer (also baloney). These statistics imply that the people in the different statistical groupings ARE THE SAME PEOPLE OVER A PERIOD OF MANY YEARS. But the facts are different. The people in the top quintile or top 5% or top 1% - are largely different people every year, and the same is true for the people at the bottom. The statistics give the false impression that everyone belongs to a permanent class of people who will remain in their present privileged or wretched state for their entire lives. And yet for MOST PEOPLE this is not the case. They spend some time at the bottom and as they get older they move up. Life throws us curveballs from time to time, but generally this is the way it works.
And I’ll make a non-statistical point on a similar-type deception: Note how often politicians and people in the media use terms like “fortunate,” “disadvantaged,” and “privileged,” when they are referring to people at the ends of the economic spectrum. This is an insidious lie as well. It implies and assumes that the people being referred to have no responsibility for where they are economically, and it’s all a matter of luck. Imagine how people would react if sports reporters described the bottom teams in the league as being, “disadvantaged,” or “under-privileged,” or the league champions as being “fortunate.” Most people at the top are there because of some combination of (1) innate intelligence, (2) hard work, (3) personal sacrifice, and (4) intelligent risk-taking. Doctors make a lot of money because they are very intelligent and hard-working people who spend the first third of their lives working their asses off in order to be licensed physicians. Are the “fortunate” to be in the top couple percent of earners? Are they “privileged” (beyond what they are entitled to)? I don’t think so.
Conversely, most of the people at the bottom of the economic totem pole are there due to a combination of, (a) a relative lack of intelligence, (b) an unwillingness to dedicate themselves to productive employment, (c) a failure to recognize or pursue opportunities in front of them, and (d) horrible life choices (e.g., having children out of wedlock, engaging in illegal or irresponsible activities). In short, everyone is subject to the occasional “bad break,” but that doesn’t explain a life of poverty, on the dole.
Politicians and the media focus on examples that are contrary to the norm – bankers who became rich by exploiting the vulnerable, or engineers who lost their jobs and can’t find new employment – but it is insane to make public policy on the basis of outliers, even if it is politically beneficial.
Finally, a few words about the expression, “hard working.” Democrats mindlessly use the expression to describe political or demographic groups that they like. They talk about Davis Bacon as a law that protects “hard working” construction workers. And yet the people who are harmed by this stupid law – mainly non-union contractor employees, but also the Taxpayers – are they NOT as “hard working” as the union people? Think about it. The opposite is probably true.
It is very discouraging to realize that so many votes in this coming election will be based on false impressions that are the result of these statistical and semantic manipulations and misrepresentations. This phenomenon is largely why our national government and many of the states and local governments are bankrupt – in fact, if not legally.
