Statistikhengst
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- #181
As bad as those numbers look for Republicans they cover up the true impact of the 2016 election.
When you apply those type of numbers to the current electoral vote laydown you end up with an insurmountable lead for Hillary regardless of which stiff the Republicans run against her
Correct, and statewide polling is proving this to be exactly the case:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...-ge-hillary-clinton-vs-gop-field-part-iv.html
In statewide polling, she is guaranteed every single Gore and Kerry state. So, her starting point is 256.
She is winning with double digit margins in Ohio, Virginia and Florida.
That puts here at 332, right where Obama was in 2012.
On top of that, she is ahead in NC, AR and extremely competitive in LA. No polling yet from MO.
If she wins all of the Obama 2012 states (332) + NC + AR + MO, she is then at 373.
I believe she will carry 4 of the 6 "Clinton 6" from 1992/1996, so add KY and LA to that mix. That brings Hillary to 390.
She only needs either IN or AZ to break over 400 EV.
With GA added, this brings here to about 416, plus NE-02, brings here to 417, possibly 428. She may swing either SD or AK (not pooh pooh this idea too quickly), which then brings here to 431-434.
I have been predicting now for more than one year that Hillary wins the 2016 GE with 57% of the NPV and either hits or goes over 400 EV. The last President to go over 400 EV: George H.W. Bush, in 1988.
The scary part for Republicans is that you can substitute any generic Democrat and get almost the same results
The bottom line is that Republicans have done NOTHING to improve their prospects in swing states. If anything, their prospects have gotten worse
Obama won in 2012 with 51.01% of the vote.
He got 93% of the black vote. Most DEMS get around 90%.
He got 71% of the Latino vote. If Hillary gets 80% (and I bet she will), then that increases her percentage from 51.01% (Obama) to 54.2 or so.
He got 55% of the female vote. She will likely get 60% or more. That adds at least 5% more to the NPV percentage. That brings her to 59.4%, minus some of the black vote that would probably recede to the usual 89-90% for a DEM candidate and probably some backlash among white male voters in some southern (cough, cough) states. This is why it is so easy for me to prognosticate 57% for Hillary Clinton for 2016.
And yes, I agree with you that any DEM would have a much easier path to 270 than any of the Republicans currently being discussed.
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