In my opinion here are the ways the recession is going to end:
(1) The mortgage crisis runs its full course! The subprimes are all run through! These people either have been foreclosed on, sold their home or have made it to a lower rate and are able to afford their home. Either way the subprimers are gone. Now we are stepping into the stated conventional loan applicants (good credit) whose income was artificially inflated and the good credit people who have 5 yr Arms. With rates down and banks being more liberal than ever with short sales and loan modification, this foreclosure hit will not be as bad as the subprimers. 2009 will still be tough. 2010 could be tough, but 2011 the mortgage crisis will have run its course. I work with a lot of mortgage companies and what many of you don't know that starting is Nov, there was a resurgency in mortgage business that is still going on right now. As any of the mortgage brokers at the moment, they are swamped with Biz! Gov help, has and will help, but time and healing is what will end this.
(2) Jobs: I think the stimulus will put some people to work. People who work spend money. However, I think the jobs created will have a minimal effect on consumer spending. I don't see it have the impact the Big O thinks. Rather I think there will be a cycle. The mortgage crisis runs it course, jobs will decrease. Then slowly but surely the economy will heal and jobs will come back organically. I don't think the government can substain job growth artificially. Like it or not it must come organically.
(3) Curbing inflation: There would be nothing worst for America right now if the dollar fell so much that we had hyper-inflation. With more Americans making less and getting crunched by the mortgage and credit crisis, a huge shoot up in prices for say food, clothes and well everything would be disaetrous! In fact would be horrendous. It would lead to less consumer spending, more job cuts, more failed business and more foreclosures (because of the job cuts). Inflation is created by printing more money. With $1.5 trillion in national debt, how are we going to pay for it? Easy via printing more money. Good thing is the rest of the world, Europe, China, Russia, Canada, Japan etc. are also doing stimulus packages and will be printing money to pay for it, so this could counterbalace a drop in the dollar.
I am praying I am wrong and that the stimulus package will work! However, I think a better way to stimulate the economy would have been through Obama's promise for UHC. Think about it. I will admit I recently watched Sicko and I have moved strongly to the pro-UHC side, but here are my reasons why it would be a better stimulus package:
(1) UHC is pro-business! It would have a great impact on corporations and especially small business. I know I know corps get to write off their benefit plans, but it costs them a heck of a lot more than they get to right off. Esp the small business. This would allow an instant cost cut for corporations and small business. Might even save a small business.
(2) I pay something like $480 a month for a family plan, but I work for a company with like 10,000 employees stateside which is a fraction of the global operations. Imagine where consumer spending would be if I had the $480 or in many cases a couple could have $1000 extra a month. That would guarantee go into consumer spending. Not to mention that people deal with co-pays etc. My son went to the hospital. I told the hospital what I think it is. They said they agree but we need to make sure so we need to give him a cat-scan and keep him for obs the next few days. It turned out to be just as I thought and nothing crazy. The total bills? $11,282. Since I have a 90/10 plan (note more people have the 80/20 PPO) I got a bill for $1,128 (If I had a 80.20 $2,256). Fuck that! Less caring parents then me would have said NO to bring me son to the hospital. Since I make decent money we got denied any reduction, but they will let me make up the payment in 6 months installment how nice. That is less money I would have spend on consumer spending.
