The Gold and Silver Thread

[FireFly]

Gold & silver are climbing because people with a savings account know they must diversify out of dollar bonds. They are buying land, commodities & stocks. US savings bonds, savings accounts & the dollar are over.

 

[Toro]

The last few days, it appears that the frantic buying is being driven by retail investors in the ETF market. There has been a spike in prices both days within the first 20 minutes of trading.

 

[liebuster]

I have noticed that the pawn shops and antique shops are getting silver coins in and they are being sold very quickly. Thats at least according the shop owners. They said they has been a huge demand for silver coins.

I think long term silver is going to keep rising because more and more people are waking up and realizing that the dollar is going to be dead. Most people, myself included, aren't going to have the money to buy a oz. of gold but rather a bunch of silver coins.

Basically I believe there is going to be a run on U.S. silver coins.

On a side not I was in Denver yesterday and there was a large protest with megaphones outside the Denver Federal Reserve branch. Guess what they we calling an end to...............

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Once it hits mainstream around 150-200 an ounce, I'm selling.

 

[KissMy]

Gold & Silver are going to soar after S&P downgraded the USA

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Gold & Silver are going to soar after S&P downgraded the USA

Just saw that. Silver is already up almost a buck today at around 43.50.

 

[Paulie]

Yeah there's no inflation at all

I feel like such a moron for pushing gold and silver the last few years.

 

[KissMy]

I own a lot of US minted Gold & Silver coins. I also own a lot of Oil, GLD & SLV options. Yes the deficit is moving me on up!

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9y4iXAso4I"]Movin' on Up![/ame]

 

[Toro]

Dude you're rolling in it. I sold all mine last week. D'Oh!

 

[KissMy]

Dude you're rolling in it. I sold all mine last week. D'Oh!

Looks like my farm land is out pacing Gold. I own quarter of a 1,000 acre farm. That land is now worth over $10 million. That makes my portion of the land alone worth $2.5 million not counting buildings, equipment, improvements & income.

 

[Toro]

Since the intra-day high on Jan 3, gold is up 5.2% while gold stocks are down 1.2%. Silver is even crazier. The silver miners ETF, an ETF of silver stocks, is up 1.6% during that time whereas spot silver has risen 41%. Generally such diversions don't end well so I remain on the sidelines.

 

[Toro]

Dude you're rolling in it. I sold all mine last week. D'Oh!

Looks like my farm land is out pacing Gold. I own quarter of a 1,000 acre farm. That land is now worth over $10 million. That makes my portion of the land alone worth $2.5 million not counting buildings, equipment, improvements & income.

 

[Mr Liberty]

Gentleman, gold mania is speculative. That is what is happening now. Let me appeal to your reason and investing common sense in commodities trading, especially gold:
1. Gold is going high because of investors. Folks, demand for gold is cratering and declining fast. Jewlery, which accounts FOR MORE THAN HALF of the demand for gold worldwide, has fallen sharply with a bad economy.
2. India purchases more gold than any other country. When the price is very high they can not afford to purchase as much to make the jewelry.
3. Then we have price pressure from the demand side. Higher and increasing prices of gold means gold miners have to work over time. The supply of gold worldwide has jumped over 10% in the last 15months. With high prices they plow up as much as they can and then we get an over supply. And guess what happens then? The slightest decrease in demand sends prices plummeting as extraction per ounce costs are rising high.
4. High prices of gold also brings out the sellers and re-sellers and sellers of resellers! All of a sudden now every spare piece of old gold whatever is being soldby everyone everywhere. Everywhere you go there is some dude with a sign "We buy Gold". This further floods the market with an over supply of gold which, again, will drive down the price fast swith the slightest decrease in demand.
5. No one knows how long hedge fund bets are. Often times gold lies in futures, as the ownership is never even taking delivery of the gold itself.

If you have extra $$$ then go for it with a small % but watch gold fall to the $800 range within the next 20 months and stay there for a while.

I disagree. We are going into hyperinflation. This will drive silver and gold up higher. All fiat currency value, given enough time, has gone to zero. The US dollar is no exception.
I like the EFT because of the margin. $43.73 high today--if you use a stop, the risk are acceptable.

 

[Gadawg73]

Gentleman, gold mania is speculative. That is what is happening now. Let me appeal to your reason and investing common sense in commodities trading, especially gold:
1. Gold is going high because of investors. Folks, demand for gold is cratering and declining fast. Jewlery, which accounts FOR MORE THAN HALF of the demand for gold worldwide, has fallen sharply with a bad economy.
2. India purchases more gold than any other country. When the price is very high they can not afford to purchase as much to make the jewelry.
3. Then we have price pressure from the demand side. Higher and increasing prices of gold means gold miners have to work over time. The supply of gold worldwide has jumped over 10% in the last 15months. With high prices they plow up as much as they can and then we get an over supply. And guess what happens then? The slightest decrease in demand sends prices plummeting as extraction per ounce costs are rising high.
4. High prices of gold also brings out the sellers and re-sellers and sellers of resellers! All of a sudden now every spare piece of old gold whatever is being soldby everyone everywhere. Everywhere you go there is some dude with a sign "We buy Gold". This further floods the market with an over supply of gold which, again, will drive down the price fast swith the slightest decrease in demand.
5. No one knows how long hedge fund bets are. Often times gold lies in futures, as the ownership is never even taking delivery of the gold itself.

If you have extra $$$ then go for it with a small % but watch gold fall to the $800 range within the next 20 months and stay there for a while.

I disagree. We are going into hyperinflation. This will drive silver and gold up higher. All fiat currency value, given enough time, has gone to zero. The US dollar is no exception.
I like the EFT because of the margin. $43.73 high today--if you use a stop, the risk are acceptable.

Long term charts shows that previous gold rallies occurred in the context of high inflation. The current rally has occurred with an absence of high inflation so your hyperinflation theory is like gold investing, speculative and without any facts to show it would have any influence.
Fact is the world's gold supply is rising faster than the US money supply now. If this presists then a gold collapse is inevitable. Gold's supply increase with a stable dollar will push gold down. Gold bugs adamantly, with little or no facts to support their theory, believe the opposite. They believe inflation will come roaring back and that the money supply will explode.
The irony of all of this is guess what the sellers of all this gold are taking and wanting as payment:
AMERICAN DOLLARS!
Unlike most commodities gold has little industrial or intrinsic value.
Given the high prices and suspect fundementals no rational investor would have bought Miami Beach condos in 2006 or tech stocks in 1999. Yet many did just like they are buyig gold now because they fall victim to confirmation bias and see only what they want to see. Today the conditions of the gold market are the same:
Gold sales for 2000: 3200 tons: 3190 tons for jewelry and 10 tons as investment
Gold sales for 2010: 3900 tons: 1850 tons for jewelry and 2100 tons as investment

Brother if those facts do not wake you up to the reality of gold as strictly a speculative market as of NOW then nothing will. Get out now. Gold will be at 800, if that, within 20 months, most likely much sooner.

 

[The Infidel]

Gold Futures Top $1,500 on Outlook for Escalating U.S. Debt, Dollar Slump - Bloomberg

 

[Toro]

Brother if those facts do not wake you up to the reality of gold as strictly a speculative market as of NOW then nothing will. Get out now. Gold will be at 800, if that, within 20 months, most likely much sooner.

I thought tech was crazy in 1996. I thought housing was nuts in 2003.

One thing I've learned in investing is that things can go farther for longer than anyone could initially imagine.

I've invested and traded in the gold and silver markets since 2002 and I'm out right now because it's getting frothy out there. So I'm expecting a near-term top soon. However, bubbles usually end when monetary policy is tight. The tech bubble ended when the Fed raised the funds target to 6.5%. The housing bubble ended when the Fed raised it to 5.25%. Right now the rate is 0%, and they are still easing with QE2. Bubbles usually don't end at these levels, though maybe it is different this time, I don't know. Usually they end when the Fed has been hiking rates many times and years after the interest rate cycle bottomed. The last time gold topped in 1980, yields on the long bond went from 8% to 11% while gold quadrupled.

My guess - and I emphasize the word "guess" - is that sometime within the next month or two, we are going to have a violent correction, followed by an acceleration into new highs in the spring. But like I said, I'm just guessing.

 

[william the wie]

Brother if those facts do not wake you up to the reality of gold as strictly a speculative market as of NOW then nothing will. Get out now. Gold will be at 800, if that, within 20 months, most likely much sooner.

I thought tech was crazy in 1996. I thought housing was nuts in 2003.

One thing I've learned in investing is that things can go farther for longer than anyone could initially imagine.

I've invested and traded in the gold and silver markets since 2002 and I'm out right now because it's getting frothy out there. So I'm expecting a near-term top soon. However, bubbles usually end when monetary policy is tight. The tech bubble ended when the Fed raised the funds target to 6.5%. The housing bubble ended when the Fed raised it to 5.25%. Right now the rate is 0%, and they are still easing with QE2. Bubbles usually don't end at these levels, though maybe it is different this time, I don't know. Usually they end when the Fed has been hiking rates many times and years after the interest rate cycle bottomed. The last time gold topped in 1980, yields on the long bond went from 8% to 11% while gold quadrupled.

My guess - and I emphasize the word "guess" - is that sometime within the next month or two, we are going to have a violent correction, followed by an acceleration into new highs in the spring. But like I said, I'm just guessing.

I think you may be overoptimistic on gold. Given silver's industrial uses and low substitutability I am more optimistic about that but with the debt ceiling and budget battles ahead I will be headed for the sidelines soon.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Univ of Texas just bought a boatload of gold bullion. I'm with wie though, I'm sticking with silver.

Whoa! University of Texas Takes Delivery of a Billion Dollars Worth of Gold by Robert Wenzel

 

[Toro]

Silver is in a full blown melt up. The RSI is now pushing 87. The last time it was this high was March 3, 2008. It rose another 4% over the next two weeks but was down 12% a month later and 33% six months later, though that was in the midst of the financial crisis.

The prior time it was this high was April 10, 2006. It proceeded to rise another 13% over the next four weeks but wound up being down 38% after it finally peaked a few months later.

Otherwise the RSI has never been as strong over the past decade in silver.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Commodoties, pm's, food, gas, are heading big time north now. We're accruing interest debt at an astounding rate that I've never seen before. It's phenomenal and scary.