The Great Trump Recession: A Self-fulfilling Prophecy?

[JimBowie1958]

Four Phases of the Business Cycle

1. Expansion: The economy grows a healthy 2 to 3 percent. Stocks enter a bull market.
2. Peak: The economy grows more than 3 percent. Inflation sends prices up. There are asset bubbles. The stock market is in a state of "irrational exuberance." Talking heads announce we are in a "new normal." Authors publish books with titles such as "Dow 30,000."
3. Contraction: Economic growth slows but isn't negative. Stocks enter a bear market.
4. Trough: The economy contracts, which signals a recession. Economic experts predict it will continue for years.

Where Are We in the Current Business Cycle?

There are things that can be done to reduce the depth and duration of recessions; good ole Keynse understood you have to get the economy circulating cash and credit to get things moving again, and then recover the debt in the returned up cycle.
But we run deficits 100% of the time now, in good years as well as bad years, so there is no pedal to push so much any more.

Trump needs to push going into space, economic nationalism, hit China with every tariff he can find and run out illegals and stop issuing new work permits unless Census can verify the high demand in specific industries.

 

[Lakhota]

Moody's downgrades coal sector to NEGATIVE.

Moody’s Downgrades Coal Sector on Weakening Export Demand - WSJ

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Trump is clearly worried about a recession prior to the 2020 election - so let's help make it come true. It will come sooner or later - so let's make it in the early fall of 2020.

It takes two quarters of negative GDP, plus time for the NBER to decide it happened, before they say, we're in a recession.

It's probably already too late for an "official recession announcement" to help one of your worthless candidates.

That doesn't mean you guys can't whine for the next year about a recession. If Q1 next year looks good, Trump will mock you whiners relentlessly, probably putting him over the top.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Moody's downgrades coal sector to NEGATIVE.

Moody’s Downgrades Coal Sector on Weakening Export Demand - WSJ

Moody's is a bunch of F'ups. You know they used to rate MBSes built on subprime mortgages as AAA.

 

[Lakhota]

As Trade War With China Heats Up, Farmers See Bleaker Outlook For 2020.

Many Midwestern farmers decided last winter to plant soybeans in spring assuming that, by now, President Donald Trump’s trade war with China would be over and China would be back to buying about a third of soybeans grown in the United States.

“At that time, trade negotiations were moving along, and it wasn’t looking that bad,” said John Heisdorffer, an Iowa farmer and chairman of the American Soybean Association.

Instead, China’s 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans remains in place and trade tensions are rising. The Trump administration is planning an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods and Beijing announced this month that Chinese companies would stop buying all U.S. agricultural products.

As Trade War With China Heats Up, Farmers See Bleaker Outlook For 2020.

Doesn't sound good for farmers. Will they still support the "Chosen One"?

 

[Lakhota]

From Voodoo Economics to Evil-Eye Economics

Are Democrats hexing the Trump boom with bad thoughts?

As it has become increasingly clear that the results of his tax cut were disappointing — recent data revisions have marked down estimates of both G.D.P. andemployment growth, to the point where it’s hard to see more than a brief sugar high from $2 trillion in borrowing — Trump has invented ever more creative ways to blame other people. In particular, he’s now claiming that the promised boom hasn’t arrived because his opponents are hexing the economy with bad thoughts: “The Democrats are trying to ‘will’ the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election.”

Can opposition politicians really cause a recession with negative thinking? This goes beyond voodoo economics; maybe we should call it evil-eye economics.

From Voodoo Economics to Evil-Eye Economics - The New York Times

I don't think the economy really needs any hexing - because I think Trump will kill it all by himself.

 

[Agit8r]

I trust it will take care of itself. The indicators are mounting.

Explainer: Countdown to recession - What an inverted yield curve means - Reuters

US housing starts drop for third straight month

 

[Thinker101]

Moody's downgrades coal sector to NEGATIVE.

Moody’s Downgrades Coal Sector on Weakening Export Demand - WSJ

No kidding, is this anything like downgrading government credit-rating, one of Obama's accomplishments.

 

[The Purge]

Wow, praying for a recession that will hurt the American population...

Seeing recessions will hurt the minorities more than the white society make me wonder why you wish for such horrible things on non-whites?

Less tax money raised during recession means less government spending on Local, State and Federal levels, so you want the poor and minorities to hurt deeply just because you want Trump out of office...

Can't win by beating him at his own game so now you want to hurt the American voter with a recession...

Would it hurt more than the billions of dollars he gave to the rich in that stupid tax cut?

And the $150 BILLION IN CASH the Surrender Monkey gave to Iranian Islamic terrorists...you really are an idiot along with being an asshole!

 

[Lakhota]

Beijing announced this month that Chinese companies would stop buying all U.S. agricultural products.

Ouch, that's gotta hurt.

 

[leftwinger]

They DeMwitted loons, may try to force another GOVT shutdown? Blame Trump thru MSM. Then use the MSM to beat the recession war drums to try and trigger a slowdown.

They are all 100% sick and evil like the OP. This one is so bad it drives people from the boards. Squaw spew talking points.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Beijing announced this month that Chinese companies would stop buying all U.S. agricultural products.

Ouch, that's gotta hurt.

Instead, they'll eat all the $20s they've earned from their exports.

 

[Lakhota]

Trade War Escalates With China Announcing Tariff Hikes On $75 Billion Of U.S. Products

Yikes, more scary news.

 

[Aldo Raine]

It's about time for a recession in this business cycle - so Democrats should do all they can to help make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. This could be our greatest weapon against Trump. In fact, Trump may even help doom his own re-election out of fear of recession that causes him to foolishly initiate actions to prevent a real or imagined recession - such as further exploding the national debt.

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a belief that comes true because we are acting as if it is already true.

Using Self-Fulfilling Prophecies to Your Advantage

Brother, I would hope that NOBODY, not a single person is hoping for a recession. That is fucking stupid crazy!!!!

 

[Third Party]

It's about time for a recession in this business cycle - so Democrats should do all they can to help make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. This could be our greatest weapon against Trump. In fact, Trump may even help doom his own re-election out of fear of recession that causes him to foolishly initiate actions to prevent a real or imagined recession - such as further exploding the national debt.

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a belief that comes true because we are acting as if it is already true.

Using Self-Fulfilling Prophecies to Your Advantage

Supposedly, the internet accelerates what people are thinking and saying and typing. So media articles may create self fulfilling beliefs and actions.

 

[Aldo Raine]

Wow, praying for a recession that will hurt the American population...

Seeing recessions will hurt the minorities more than the white society make me wonder why you wish for such horrible things on non-whites?

Less tax money raised during recession means less government spending on Local, State and Federal levels, so you want the poor and minorities to hurt deeply just because you want Trump out of office...

Can't win by beating him at his own game so now you want to hurt the American voter with a recession...

Would it hurt more than the billions of dollars he gave to the rich in that stupid tax cut?

Everyone got a tax cut. Lol, you're a dumbass.

No I didn't, I got a tax increase. Try again.

 

[Lakhota]

It's about time for a recession in this business cycle - so Democrats should do all they can to help make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. This could be our greatest weapon against Trump. In fact, Trump may even help doom his own re-election out of fear of recession that causes him to foolishly initiate actions to prevent a real or imagined recession - such as further exploding the national debt.

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a belief that comes true because we are acting as if it is already true.

Using Self-Fulfilling Prophecies to Your Advantage

Brother, I would hope that NOBODY, not a single person is hoping for a recession. That is fucking stupid crazy!!!!

"Lakhota's argument is, since after the longest growth cycle in U.S. history a recession is overdue and likely coming, may it come at a convenient time to sweep the malignant rot out of the White House."

 

[Aldo Raine]

It's about time for a recession in this business cycle - so Democrats should do all they can to help make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. This could be our greatest weapon against Trump. In fact, Trump may even help doom his own re-election out of fear of recession that causes him to foolishly initiate actions to prevent a real or imagined recession - such as further exploding the national debt.

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a belief that comes true because we are acting as if it is already true.

Using Self-Fulfilling Prophecies to Your Advantage

Brother, I would hope that NOBODY, not a single person is hoping for a recession. That is fucking stupid crazy!!!!

"Lakhota's argument is, since after the longest growth cycle in U.S. history a recession is overdue and likely coming, may it come at a convenient time to sweep the malignant rot out of the White House."

I just will not wish for a recession, sorry bro I do not wish pain on myself or others.

 

[jknowgood]

Wow, praying for a recession that will hurt the American population...

Seeing recessions will hurt the minorities more than the white society make me wonder why you wish for such horrible things on non-whites?

Less tax money raised during recession means less government spending on Local, State and Federal levels, so you want the poor and minorities to hurt deeply just because you want Trump out of office...

Can't win by beating him at his own game so now you want to hurt the American voter with a recession...

Would it hurt more than the billions of dollars he gave to the rich in that stupid tax cut?

Everyone got a tax cut. Lol, you're a dumbass.

No I didn't, I got a tax increase. Try again.

You must be one of the wealthy then.

 

[Aldo Raine]

Wow, praying for a recession that will hurt the American population...

Seeing recessions will hurt the minorities more than the white society make me wonder why you wish for such horrible things on non-whites?

Less tax money raised during recession means less government spending on Local, State and Federal levels, so you want the poor and minorities to hurt deeply just because you want Trump out of office...

Can't win by beating him at his own game so now you want to hurt the American voter with a recession...

Would it hurt more than the billions of dollars he gave to the rich in that stupid tax cut?

Everyone got a tax cut. Lol, you're a dumbass.

No I didn't, I got a tax increase. Try again.

You must be one of the wealthy then.

If I was 1 of the wealthy I would have gotten massive tax cuts, try again.