bripat9643
Diamond Member
- Apr 1, 2011
- 170,169
- 47,316
- Thread starter
- #281
They don't even have to be asymptomatic. How many people get the flu every year and never go to the doctor? I've had the flu dozens of times and never visited a doctor for it. I sure as hell had symptomsThat works if you don’t have the potential for so many asymptomatic cases.That will be a miracle.The NIH and the CDC do presume who has been infected vs the tests given for confirmation, and they estimate, based on model predictions and data from all other countries, that the USA mortality rate could settle at around 1%, almost half of the mortality rate being reported now on the actual test takers.
They do not predict it will be 140 times less than now, as Danny the squirrel does.
The math these people are doing is wrong.
When you look at historical pandemics, taking the number of deaths as the numerator divided by the number of cases as the denominator, is accurate because the number of cases = the number of RESOLVED CASES.
With an ongoing pandemic, that you are still in the middle of, with exponentially growing numbers of cases, this is equation of number of total cases = number of resolved cases is NOT TRUE.
To make an analogy, if we were trying to determine the rate of widget production failures and have 900 at the factory in production, 100 completed and 10 that have failed, is the failure rate !% or 10%? It is TEN PERCENT because the ones still in production are unknowns. They are not resolved cases, so they dont count in the failure rate calculation.
We should only look at the death rate with the denominator being RESOLVED CASES.
And what does that look like globally?
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