The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

[initforme]

Ing when he pushed and signed the stimulus bill it was needed.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

You're just admitting that the FBI are a bunch of deep-state douchebags.

Yep, who's working quadrant 9? It's time for a pick up.

 

[candycorn]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

You're just admitting that the FBI are a bunch of deep-state douchebags.

Yep, who's working quadrant 9? It's time for a pick up.

I’ll call it in. The gumshoes should be there.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

You're just admitting that the FBI are a bunch of deep-state douchebags.

Yep, who's working quadrant 9? It's time for a pick up.

I’ll call it in. The gumshoes should be there.

Perfect. I recommend they wear the Chinese Communist disguises. The Muslim Brotherhood ones are a little dated.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

TDS morons are hoping the deathrate is high

False. You sound like a fucking moron. You really should shut up.

 

[bripat9643]

TDS morons are hoping the deathrate is high

False. You sound like a fucking moron. You really should shut up.

Soory if you don't like the facts. They are pretty fucking ugly,

 

[initforme]

Argue all you guys want. The fact is we have at least another month of this, I predict more. Send the checks.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

No

TDS morons are hoping the deathrate is high

False. You sound like a fucking moron. You really should shut up.

Soory if you don't like the facts. They are pretty fucking ugly,

No really...find someone who cares about you and read your insane post to them. This will be enlightening for you.

 

[initforme]

And that is the fact.

 

[bripat9643]

No

TDS morons are hoping the deathrate is high

False. You sound like a fucking moron. You really should shut up.

Soory if you don't like the facts. They are pretty fucking ugly,

No really...find someone who cares about you and read your insane post to them. This will be enlightening for you.

You can't dispute my analysis, I take it.

 

[initforme]

Nothing we can do about this other than stay home. It's the responsible thing to do.

 

[candycorn]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

You're just admitting that the FBI are a bunch of deep-state douchebags.

Yep, who's working quadrant 9? It's time for a pick up.

I’ll call it in. The gumshoes should be there.

Perfect. I recommend they wear the Chinese Communist disguises. The Muslim Brotherhood ones are a little dated.

Asian is the new black. Literally.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Im sure the FBI will visit squirrel hill boy the same way they visited finger boy

You're just admitting that the FBI are a bunch of deep-state douchebags.

Yep, who's working quadrant 9? It's time for a pick up.

I’ll call it in. The gumshoes should be there.

Perfect. I recommend they wear the Chinese Communist disguises. The Muslim Brotherhood ones are a little dated.

Asian is the new black. Literally.

Yep.

 

[ColonelAngus]

Britain’s death rate is 25 times less than expected. That is great news and I am very happy many fewer people died than they first predicted.


From 500,000 expected to 20,000 in 2 weeks. Read the article from March 15th where 531,000 deaths in UK were predicted.

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus

www.theguardian.com

 

[flacaltenn]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

You're on the right track here.. The denominator IS always bigger then the # of diagnosed/reported cases.. This is because A LOT of people having it are asymptomic and don't seek medical aide, or so MILD that a Dr misdiagnoses it, etc...

So the CDC WAS using last week a factor of TWO (as an educated guess) to multiply the denominator.. That's takes the RAW calculation (without the "fudge factor" from like 1.7% to 0.8%...

You should check a white paper issued from 2 virologists from Stanford last week that made LOTS of news.. They were thinking along the lines of your OPost.. THEY thought the multiplier should be more like 40 to 80 --- instead of 2... Go search for Stanford and COVID mortality.. Or look on USMB in Current events.. THere were 2 or 3 threads on that "opinion"....

 

[flacaltenn]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Not far off from the paper released by 2 Stanford virologists last week... But I don't think they used Iceland as a comparison.. The Stanford people DID use other countries tho to arrive at a MUCH lower mortality rate..

 

[flacaltenn]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

you realize that the same issue is there for everything we claim a death rate on? We claim a death rate from the Flu but nobody knows how many were sick with it and did not get an official test...yet you people never talk about how those numbers are wrong...why is that?

On most of the seasonal flus -- they DO know this.. Because after the dust settles, they can go back and take simple blood draws in large populations and look at ANTIBODIES specific to that flu...

If it's NEW -- you don't get that luxury until the crisis is over...

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Britain’s death rate is 25 times less than expected. That is great news and I am very happy many fewer people died than they first predicted.

Absolutely. But the deaths and serious illnesses are still growing exponentially. Things are about to get very bad there.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Not far off from the paper released by 2 Stanford virologists last week... But I don't think they used Iceland as a comparison.. The Stanford people DID use other countries tho to arrive at a MUCH lower mortality rate..

Oh, they're virologists?

 

[bripat9643]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

You're on the right track here.. The denominator IS always bigger then the # of diagnosed/reported cases.. This is because A LOT of people having it are asymptomic and don't seek medical aide, or so MILD that a Dr misdiagnoses it, etc...

So the CDC WAS using last week a factor of TWO (as an educated guess) to multiply the denominator.. That's takes the RAW calculation (without the "fudge factor" from like 1.7% to 0.8%...

You should check a white paper issued from 2 virologists from Stanford last week that made LOTS of news.. They were thinking along the lines of your OPost.. THEY thought the multiplier should be more like 40 to 80 --- instead of 2... Go search for Stanford and COVID mortality.. Or look on USMB in Current events.. THere were 2 or 3 threads on that "opinion"....

I already posted a thread about them:

Is Coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested? Two Stanford medical professors suggest that current mortality estimates are way too high.