rahtruelies
VIP Member
- Mar 24, 2015
- 321
- 30
The rest of the story: What Obama won’t tell you about his legacy
........................1. It’s (still) the economy, stupid
The expansion that began in June 2009 has been the weakest since World War II, with real gross domestic product growth averaging 2.1%. At 7 1/2 years and counting, it is also among the longest on record. But it hasn’t packed much of a punch. Cumulative growth of 16.5% since the trough is well shy of the 38.4% increase during the 1982-1990 expansion and 42.6% from 1991-2001, according to the Wall Street Journal.
To be sure, the process of digging out from a financial crisis is more arduous than recovering from a garden-variety recession, as Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff chronicled in their 2009 book, “This Time Is Different.” And an aging population is curtailing labor-force growth, which in turn constrains how fast the economy can expand without generating inflationary pressures.
That said, fewer regulatory impediments would have encouraged new business formation, which increased in 2015 for the first time since 2009, and capital investment, giving productivity a needed boost. Stronger economic growth would have lured more labor-force dropouts back to the working world.
New signs of optimism emerged immediately following Trump’s Nov. 8 election. The stock market has been positively buoyant while consumer, business and home-builder confidence have all soared. Surveys suggest businesses are planning to increase capital spending.
That sense of optimism will need to be ratified by results, but the message to Obama is unmistakable: Don’t let the door hit you on the way out...........................
........................1. It’s (still) the economy, stupid
The expansion that began in June 2009 has been the weakest since World War II, with real gross domestic product growth averaging 2.1%. At 7 1/2 years and counting, it is also among the longest on record. But it hasn’t packed much of a punch. Cumulative growth of 16.5% since the trough is well shy of the 38.4% increase during the 1982-1990 expansion and 42.6% from 1991-2001, according to the Wall Street Journal.
To be sure, the process of digging out from a financial crisis is more arduous than recovering from a garden-variety recession, as Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff chronicled in their 2009 book, “This Time Is Different.” And an aging population is curtailing labor-force growth, which in turn constrains how fast the economy can expand without generating inflationary pressures.
That said, fewer regulatory impediments would have encouraged new business formation, which increased in 2015 for the first time since 2009, and capital investment, giving productivity a needed boost. Stronger economic growth would have lured more labor-force dropouts back to the working world.
New signs of optimism emerged immediately following Trump’s Nov. 8 election. The stock market has been positively buoyant while consumer, business and home-builder confidence have all soared. Surveys suggest businesses are planning to increase capital spending.
That sense of optimism will need to be ratified by results, but the message to Obama is unmistakable: Don’t let the door hit you on the way out...........................