Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Nov 21, 2013
- 45,564
- 11,757
On this thread in the elections forum:
The Divide The Trumpians vs. the expected 2016 demographics US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
I presented the simple math that shows that the divisive language that Donald Trump is using about immigration goes squarely against the demographics that the GOP will need to win a presidential election in the forseeable future. I also wrote on that thread that soon, polling data would reflect what people are thinking about Trump's very brash commentary on Latinos.
Well, a Suffolk / USA Today poll came out last evening, now showing Trump leading the GOP field but losing to Hillary (D) by 17 points in the General, proves the point:
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_14_2015_marginals.pdf
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Suffolk/USAT)
Donald Trump 17%
Jeb Bush 14%
Scott Walker 8%
Ted Cruz 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Ben Carson 4%
Rnad Paul 4%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Chris Christie 3%
Everyone Else <2%
Margin: Trump +3, just within the MoE
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Suffolk/USAT)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Jeb Bush (R) 42%
Margin: Hillary +4
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Marco Rubio (R) 40%
Margin: Hillary +6
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
Margin: Hillary +9
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Rand Paul (R) 38%
Margin: Hillary +10
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Scott Walker (R) 37%
Margin: Hillary +11
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Ben Carson (R) 36%
Margin: Hillary +13
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R) 34%
Margin: Hillary +17
The only two candidates who come even remotely close to Clinton are Bush (-4) and Rubio (-6). After that, Hillary is then winning with landslide margins over the rest.
Not only that, the poll is weighted a little too heavily FOR Republicans and also a little too heavily for men. You will see this if you click on the .pdf
Questions 31 and 32 are the decisive questions other than the matchups themselves:
31. Recently Donald Trump made public comments about illegal immigration with specific reference to Mexican immigrants saying they bring drugs, crime, and are rapists. Do Trump’s comments matter to you in your vote?
32. Do Trump’s comments make you more likely to vote for him, less likely, or no difference?
You will find the numbers at the .pdf. They clearly explain why Trump is 17 points behind Clinton.
The leanest margin in this poll, +4 over Jeb Bush, is equivalent to President Obama's winning margin from 2012. Hillary STARTS with this margin over her closest contender, and then things get a lot worse for the GOP very fast.
Suffolk and USA Today don't always pair up with each other, so a direct comparison to 2012 is hard, but Suffolk was the pollster which in 2012 already called Virginia, North Carolina and Florida for Romney ONE MONTH before the General election and didn't poll those states any more, so no claim can be made that Suffolk is left leaning. It is not. As we all know, Obama won both Virginia and Florida, so Suffolk was WAY off to the Right in both of those states.
The point, however, is the same as was in 2012, only far more enhanced looking toward 2016: Donald Trump is currently leading the GOP field because he is throwing a certain kind of "red meat" to the extreme Right GOP base, which is currying him favor among Republicans, but absolutely crushing him in GE matchups against Hillary. Why? Because that "red meat" that works so well for GOPers in the primaries ends up being a poison pill for them in the GE. This is exactly what Reince Preibus was warning against in his now-famous 2012 Election "autopsy".
This poll will likely just be one of many showing Trump doing well in the GOP field but losing by a humiliating margin to Hillary.
The one matchup missing from this poll that I would have liked to have seen as well would have been a Cruz-Clinton matchup.
The last time a candidate did this poorly in an actual presidential election as Trump did in this poll was Walter Mondale (D) in 1984, who lost to Ronald Reagan (R) by 18.22 points. I just want to put that 17 point spread in context.
It's getting so bad that the owner of one decidedly Republican website that publishes polling values gave this commentary in his header:
Facit: "I told you so".
The Divide The Trumpians vs. the expected 2016 demographics US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
I presented the simple math that shows that the divisive language that Donald Trump is using about immigration goes squarely against the demographics that the GOP will need to win a presidential election in the forseeable future. I also wrote on that thread that soon, polling data would reflect what people are thinking about Trump's very brash commentary on Latinos.
Well, a Suffolk / USA Today poll came out last evening, now showing Trump leading the GOP field but losing to Hillary (D) by 17 points in the General, proves the point:
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_14_2015_marginals.pdf
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Suffolk/USAT)
Donald Trump 17%
Jeb Bush 14%
Scott Walker 8%
Ted Cruz 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Ben Carson 4%
Rnad Paul 4%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Chris Christie 3%
Everyone Else <2%
Margin: Trump +3, just within the MoE
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Suffolk/USAT)
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Jeb Bush (R) 42%
Margin: Hillary +4
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Marco Rubio (R) 40%
Margin: Hillary +6
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
Margin: Hillary +9
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Rand Paul (R) 38%
Margin: Hillary +10
Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
Scott Walker (R) 37%
Margin: Hillary +11
Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
Ben Carson (R) 36%
Margin: Hillary +13
Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R) 34%
Margin: Hillary +17
The only two candidates who come even remotely close to Clinton are Bush (-4) and Rubio (-6). After that, Hillary is then winning with landslide margins over the rest.
Not only that, the poll is weighted a little too heavily FOR Republicans and also a little too heavily for men. You will see this if you click on the .pdf
Questions 31 and 32 are the decisive questions other than the matchups themselves:
31. Recently Donald Trump made public comments about illegal immigration with specific reference to Mexican immigrants saying they bring drugs, crime, and are rapists. Do Trump’s comments matter to you in your vote?
32. Do Trump’s comments make you more likely to vote for him, less likely, or no difference?
You will find the numbers at the .pdf. They clearly explain why Trump is 17 points behind Clinton.
The leanest margin in this poll, +4 over Jeb Bush, is equivalent to President Obama's winning margin from 2012. Hillary STARTS with this margin over her closest contender, and then things get a lot worse for the GOP very fast.
Suffolk and USA Today don't always pair up with each other, so a direct comparison to 2012 is hard, but Suffolk was the pollster which in 2012 already called Virginia, North Carolina and Florida for Romney ONE MONTH before the General election and didn't poll those states any more, so no claim can be made that Suffolk is left leaning. It is not. As we all know, Obama won both Virginia and Florida, so Suffolk was WAY off to the Right in both of those states.
The point, however, is the same as was in 2012, only far more enhanced looking toward 2016: Donald Trump is currently leading the GOP field because he is throwing a certain kind of "red meat" to the extreme Right GOP base, which is currying him favor among Republicans, but absolutely crushing him in GE matchups against Hillary. Why? Because that "red meat" that works so well for GOPers in the primaries ends up being a poison pill for them in the GE. This is exactly what Reince Preibus was warning against in his now-famous 2012 Election "autopsy".
This poll will likely just be one of many showing Trump doing well in the GOP field but losing by a humiliating margin to Hillary.
The one matchup missing from this poll that I would have liked to have seen as well would have been a Cruz-Clinton matchup.
The last time a candidate did this poorly in an actual presidential election as Trump did in this poll was Walter Mondale (D) in 1984, who lost to Ronald Reagan (R) by 18.22 points. I just want to put that 17 point spread in context.
It's getting so bad that the owner of one decidedly Republican website that publishes polling values gave this commentary in his header:
Facit: "I told you so".
