The Trumpian Divide, Part III - data from Virginia

[Statistikhengst]

As an adjunct to this thread, but separate, since it is separate data:


PPP (D) has released the results of polling in Virginia, an erstwhile GOP bastion. The poll does 11 Hillary vs. various declared GOP candidate matchups, and she wins all 11 matchups, and with hand margins:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_71615.pdf

1,170 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton (D) 47 / Rubio (R) 43; margin = Clinton +4
Clinton (D) 47 / Carson (R) 43; margin = Clinton +4
Clinton (D) 47 / Walker (R) 42; margin = Clinton +5
Clinton (D) 47 / Paul (R) 42; margin = Clinton +5
Clinton (D) 45 / Christie (R) 39; margin = Clinton +6
Clinton (D) 48 / Cruz (R) 41; margin = Clinton +7
Clinton (D) 46 / Fiorina (R) 39; margin = Clinton +7
Clinton (D) 46 / Bush (R) 38; margin = Clinton +8
Clinton (D) 49 / Trump (R) 39; margin = Clinton +10
Clinton (D) 49 / Huckabee (R) 39; margin = Clinton +10
Clinton (D) 47 / Gilmore (R) 35; margin = Clinton +12

The two candidates closest to Hillary are Marco Rubio and Ben Carson, both 4 points behind. 4 points is outside of the margin of error for this poll and was also Obama's nargin over Romney in this state in 2012. The other nine margins are larger than this.

Clinton trumps Trump with a 10 point landslide lead, also Huckabee with the same lead.
Jim Gilmore, from Virginia, who plans to officially announce in August, is 12 points behind.

Jeb Bush is 8 point behind in a state that his father won by +20.50 in 1988, by +4.37 in 1992, a state that Jeb's brother won by +8.04 in 2000 and +8.20 in 2004, a state that President Obama flipped in 2012 (+6.30) and retained for the Democratic Party in 2012 (+3.87). Jeb Bush is the only Bush ever to be LOSING Virginia in polling, and he has lost 6 of 9 matchups over the last two years, there were two absolute ties and he won one matchup.

The fact that Hillary is STARTING with Obama's 2012 winning margin as her "weakest" margin and expanding it up to +12 in a once rock-solid GOP bastion state should be a huge warning sign for the GOP.

But there is more:

if you go to the internals, you will see an interesting phenomenon. Hillary is not doing quite as well in the womens' vote as she does elsewhere, but she is doing BETTER in the mens' vote here, which means she still has room to grow in the female vote, and it also explains why she is staying ahead in the Old Dominion.

In DEM nomination polling for Virginia, it's Clinton 64 / Sanders 14 / Webb 8, margin = Hillary +50. No contest here.

In GOP nomination polling, it's Bush 18 / Trump 14 / Walker 14 / Carson 10, Huckabee 8 / Rubio 7, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina and Paul, all at 5, and so forth. Trump is in second place with Walker in VA, but is 10 full points behind Hillary in a matchup up. The MoE for the Republican nomination part of the poll is +/-4.4, so a +4 for Bush, Jeb is essentially a three-way tie between Jeb, Trump and Walker, with Carson not far behind.

The Trumpian divide continues, exactly as I predicted. Trump is doing very well in nomination polling, but getting crushed in GE polling. Hell, even Bernie Sanders beats Trump in this state:

Sanders 43 / Trump 39, margin = Sanders +4

That is, however, pie-in-the-sky stuff, as Sanders is not going to get the Democratic nomination and Jim Webb can only muster 8% in his home state.

Ben Carson does very well against Hillary in the Old Dominion. I find this to be a positive development for him.


PPP (D) was the best end-pollster in VA in 2012. It nailed the toplines and the margin ( Obama 51 / Romney 47). Obama's winning margin in Virginia was also pretty much identical to his national margin:

VA: Obama +3.87
National: Obama +3.86

In some ways, Virginia may become the new major bellwether for the nation. Stay tuned.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

Unfortunately NOVA has grown due to the increase in size of the fed gov and democrat sloth parasites have moved in. That skews elections in VA.
Also, if you allow all of the repub candidates to coalesce around one it will change those numbers dramatically.
Amazing that so many democrats are willing to elect the equivalent of Pat Nixon/ Richard Nixon/H. R. Haldeman. Democrats are the perfect ignorance and hypocrisy combo.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Very informative post. Thank you...

Virginia is gone as a republican presidential state, along with Florida. They can't win shit without them...Fairfax county becoming less white is the reason.

Keep up the good work.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

Very informative post. Thank you...

Virginia is gone as a republican presidential state, along with Florida. They can't win shit without them...Fairfax county becoming less white is the reason.

Keep up the good work.

It has more to do with left wing white city dwellers moving into expanding VA suburbs. People who depend on gov jobs and the periphery of that.

 

[PratchettFan]

Unfortunately NOVA has grown due to the increase in size of the fed gov and democrat sloth parasites have moved in. That skews elections in VA.
Also, if you allow all of the repub candidates to coalesce around one it will change those numbers dramatically.
Amazing that so many democrats are willing to elect the equivalent of Pat Nixon/ Richard Nixon/H. R. Haldeman. Democrats are the perfect ignorance and hypocrisy combo.

Let me see if I understand. The numbers are skewed because of the way the voters vote?

 

[ScienceRocks]

I think the gop would do better if it wanted accountability rather then bath tub sized government.


It should fund infrastructure, science, r&d and education...Why not? People prefer the democrat race husteriers over you because you want to do away with everything that makes this nation a modern first world country.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Unfortunately NOVA has grown due to the increase in size of the fed gov and democrat sloth parasites have moved in. That skews elections in VA.
Also, if you allow all of the repub candidates to coalesce around one it will change those numbers dramatically.
Amazing that so many democrats are willing to elect the equivalent of Pat Nixon/ Richard Nixon/H. R. Haldeman. Democrats are the perfect ignorance and hypocrisy combo.

No, it skews nothing.

On person, one vote.

That's how it works.

 

[Zander]

When Hillary loses the DNC nomination, what value will these polls have?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Yeah, you keep on believe that one...

 

[ScienceRocks]

Hillary isn't going to lose the nomination...Anyone that believes anyone can beat her is insane.

I don't like Hillary and I believe she is a divider but she will likely win the next election.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Sanders 43 / Trump 39, margin = Sanders +4

How is Donald T Rump going to spin that poll where he is losing to Sanders?

Sanders is beating him in both turnout and polling.

Got to be hurting that humungous ego somewhat to be taking a beat down from a self described socialist.

 

[Zander]

Whomever the GOP nominates will be the next POTUS.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

Unfortunately NOVA has grown due to the increase in size of the fed gov and democrat sloth parasites have moved in. That skews elections in VA.
Also, if you allow all of the repub candidates to coalesce around one it will change those numbers dramatically.
Amazing that so many democrats are willing to elect the equivalent of Pat Nixon/ Richard Nixon/H. R. Haldeman. Democrats are the perfect ignorance and hypocrisy combo.

Let me see if I understand. The numbers are skewed because of the way the voters vote?

It's a cultural thing. VA has its numbers skewed because so many lefties live within a small portion of the state.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

Unfortunately NOVA has grown due to the increase in size of the fed gov and democrat sloth parasites have moved in. That skews elections in VA.
Also, if you allow all of the repub candidates to coalesce around one it will change those numbers dramatically.
Amazing that so many democrats are willing to elect the equivalent of Pat Nixon/ Richard Nixon/H. R. Haldeman. Democrats are the perfect ignorance and hypocrisy combo.

No, it skews nothing.

On person, one vote.

That's how it works.

According to you, urbanites should dictate life for farmers because they have the numbers. That is skewed. VA as a whole is skewed by the large number of DC urbanites.

 

[PratchettFan]

Unfortunately NOVA has grown due to the increase in size of the fed gov and democrat sloth parasites have moved in. That skews elections in VA.
Also, if you allow all of the repub candidates to coalesce around one it will change those numbers dramatically.
Amazing that so many democrats are willing to elect the equivalent of Pat Nixon/ Richard Nixon/H. R. Haldeman. Democrats are the perfect ignorance and hypocrisy combo.

Let me see if I understand. The numbers are skewed because of the way the voters vote?

It's a cultural thing. VA has its numbers skewed because so many lefties live within a small portion of the state.

I live in Virginia. What cultural thing are you talking about?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Unfortunately NOVA has grown due to the increase in size of the fed gov and democrat sloth parasites have moved in. That skews elections in VA.
Also, if you allow all of the repub candidates to coalesce around one it will change those numbers dramatically.
Amazing that so many democrats are willing to elect the equivalent of Pat Nixon/ Richard Nixon/H. R. Haldeman. Democrats are the perfect ignorance and hypocrisy combo.

No, it skews nothing.

On person, one vote.

That's how it works.

According to you, urbanites should dictate life for farmers because they have the numbers. That is skewed. VA as a whole is skewed by the large number of DC urbanites.

Uhm, this is not about me.

I know it's a RWNJ weakness to try to attach emotions to the writer of an OP with which an RWNJ does not agree.

This is polling data. Simple math. Calculations.

Did you now understand that?

And once again: one person, one vote. What about that simple principle do you not understand?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sanders 43 / Trump 39, margin = Sanders +4

How is Donald T Rump going to spin that poll where he is losing to Sanders?

Sanders is beating him in both turnout and polling.

Got to be hurting that humungous ego somewhat to be taking a beat down from a self described socialist.

And in VIRGINIA!

If Sanders is beating Trump in Virginia, just imagine how it would look it Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan....

But this is all pie-in-the-sky stuff, for neither Sanders nor Trump are going to clinch the nomination for their respective parties.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Yawn.

 

[Zander]

Yeah, you keep on believe that one...

Just keep on believing Stat.......

She's unlikeable, untrustworthy, uninspiring, and a horrid. robotic speaker....and that's just amongst Democrats! Republicans have a far lower opinion of her.

She's a LOCK!! A LOCK I TELL YA!!!

Just like in 2008!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

I respect your opinion. But the math shows that she is winning, and handily at that.

Voters HATED Richard Nixon in 1968. He still won.