Today's Snapshot: Who’s Winning the Presidential Campaign? Clinton/Rubio

[Procrustes Stretched]

The horse race. It is interesting to see. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html

What’s NewMarco Rubio has taken a noticeable lead over Jeb Bush and other Republicans in the prediction markets. Ben Carson is now leading in the Iowa polls, pulling ahead of Donald Trump, who had been in first place since July.

History suggests that each party’s eventual nominee will emerge from 2015 in one of the top
two or three positions, as measured by endorsements, fund-raising and polling. UPDATED Oct. 25, 2015​

DataLab | FiveThirtyEight

Politics | FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Book of Jeremiah]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

 

[saveliberty]

So far I am winning, no political ads on radio or TV yet. I still have PTSD from last the election cycle.

 

[Book of Jeremiah]

I'd vote for you before I'd vote for Rubio! Any day!

 

[Delta4Embassy]

Until no-chance candidates are out, the real standings wont be known. So long as no-chance types are sucking up support and votes in polls though it's all up in the air.

 

[toxicmedia]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Actually...this Presidential election cycle has way more in common with horse racing, and sporting events in general, that it does with American voters evaluating their interests, and finding out which candidate's platform most closely matches them.

Even if a registered Republican or Democrat found their interests better represented by a candidate from the other party, our "support your team" mentality wouldn't allow it.

Every American voter should be open to the concept of swing voting

 

[saveliberty]

Until no-chance candidates are out, the real standings wont be known. So long as no-chance types are sucking up support and votes in polls though it's all up in the air.

Yes, because picking up an statistically insignificant 4% makes all the difference in who is ahead, not.

 

[Delta4Embassy]

Until no-chance candidates are out, the real standings wont be known. So long as no-chance types are sucking up support and votes in polls though it's all up in the air.

Yes, because picking up an statistically insignificant 4% makes all the difference in who is ahead, not.

How many candidates have less than 5%? A dozen? That 60% up for grabs. One might say that'd effect who's really in the lead if that 60% was divided between just two candidates instead of a dozen.

 

[saveliberty]

The "60%" will either not vote at all, because their person dropped out, or fall into step with the current leader. Not too many people will pick candidate number two. The leader is most likely to fall due to over media exposure which makes them look unpresidential.

 

[Delta4Embassy]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Actually...this Presidential election cycle has way more in common with horse racing, and sporting events in general, that it does with American voters evaluating their interests, and finding out which candidate's platform most closely matches them.

Even if a registered Republican or Democrat found their interests better represented by a candidate from the other party, our "support your team" mentality wouldn't allow it.

Every American voter should be open to the concept of swing voting

Actually, if not mistaken, horse races at the finish line are decide by fractions of a second. So I'd say politican elections, especially for President have more in common with say a marathon where the winner's usually the winner by quite a bit.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Jerry, not Dante's poll.

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Prediction Markets
When a campaign still has months remaining, prediction markets — in which traders bet on event outcomes — have a substantially better record than polls at pointing to the eventual nominee. But the markets do have at least one weakness: They sometimes exaggerate the chances of unusual or long-shot candidates, like Donald Trump, perhaps because a few passionate traders can affect prices.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Actually...this Presidential election cycle has way more in common with horse racing, and sporting events in general, that it does with American voters evaluating their interests, and finding out which candidate's platform most closely matches them.

Even if a registered Republican or Democrat found their interests better represented by a candidate from the other party, our "support your team" mentality wouldn't allow it.

Every American voter should be open to the concept of swing voting

Actually, if not mistaken, horse races at the finish line are decide by fractions of a second. So I'd say politican elections, especially for President have more in common with say a marathon where the winner's usually the winner by quite a bit.

actually, Clinton and Rubio are in the lead...

A candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the party nomination. At the least, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength.

As for the polls, they’re not irrelevant, even at this early stage. But the national polls matter less than the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote and the states where voters are paying more attention to the candidates.

Here, we offer a scoreboard that totes up the factors that matter most, and we’ll update it every day for the remainder of the year. For all the imperfections in his campaign so far, Jeb Bush still leads the Republican field, albeit by a much smaller margin than Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html?_r=0​

 

[saveliberty]

This has to be some sort of big setup. Statistically speaking how can we consistently get such crappy choices of who runs our country? Odds favor a good president at least 50% or the time, but Nooo.

 

[toxicmedia]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Actually...this Presidential election cycle has way more in common with horse racing, and sporting events in general, that it does with American voters evaluating their interests, and finding out which candidate's platform most closely matches them.

Even if a registered Republican or Democrat found their interests better represented by a candidate from the other party, our "support your team" mentality wouldn't allow it.

Every American voter should be open to the concept of swing voting

Actually, if not mistaken, horse races at the finish line are decide by fractions of a second. So I'd say politican elections, especially for President have more in common with say a marathon where the winner's usually the winner by quite a bit.

Okay, that in mind..maybe not so much with the horse race analogy...or at least they way I characterized it.

But then, a landslide victory in the Presidential race is 53% 47%. From a numbers perspective, if you walked into a room that had 47 people, and then walked into another room with 53 people...they'd look very much the same

 

[saveliberty]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Actually...this Presidential election cycle has way more in common with horse racing, and sporting events in general, that it does with American voters evaluating their interests, and finding out which candidate's platform most closely matches them.

Even if a registered Republican or Democrat found their interests better represented by a candidate from the other party, our "support your team" mentality wouldn't allow it.

Every American voter should be open to the concept of swing voting

Actually, if not mistaken, horse races at the finish line are decide by fractions of a second. So I'd say politican elections, especially for President have more in common with say a marathon where the winner's usually the winner by quite a bit.

Usually they win by a large margin in the Electorial count, not popular vote.

 

[Book of Jeremiah]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Actually...this Presidential election cycle has way more in common with horse racing, and sporting events in general, that it does with American voters evaluating their interests, and finding out which candidate's platform most closely matches them.

Even if a registered Republican or Democrat found their interests better represented by a candidate from the other party, our "support your team" mentality wouldn't allow it.

Every American voter should be open to the concept of swing voting

Actually, if not mistaken, horse races at the finish line are decide by fractions of a second. So I'd say politican elections, especially for President have more in common with say a marathon where the winner's usually the winner by quite a bit.

actually, Clinton and Rubio are in the lead...

A candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the party nomination. At the least, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength.

As for the polls, they’re not irrelevant, even at this early stage. But the national polls matter less than the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to vote and the states where voters are paying more attention to the candidates.

Here, we offer a scoreboard that totes up the factors that matter most, and we’ll update it every day for the remainder of the year. For all the imperfections in his campaign so far, Jeb Bush still leads the Republican field, albeit by a much smaller margin than Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic field.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/presidential-candidates-dashboard.html?_r=0​

Actually I just read an article today that says he isn't. You're looking him as a default candidate but even then he isn't going to work out. He cannot even get the Hispanic vote, Dante'. Wake up.

 

[toxicmedia]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Actually...this Presidential election cycle has way more in common with horse racing, and sporting events in general, that it does with American voters evaluating their interests, and finding out which candidate's platform most closely matches them.

Even if a registered Republican or Democrat found their interests better represented by a candidate from the other party, our "support your team" mentality wouldn't allow it.

Every American voter should be open to the concept of swing voting

Actually, if not mistaken, horse races at the finish line are decide by fractions of a second. So I'd say politican elections, especially for President have more in common with say a marathon where the winner's usually the winner by quite a bit.

Usually they win by a large margin in the Electorial count, not popular vote.

The possibility that a president can lose the election, and win the popular vote...has only been something Republicans love since Bush beat Gore that way.

Before that...Republicans didn't know the difference between a constitutional republic and a democracy.

 

[Book of Jeremiah]

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Jerry, not Dante's poll.

Rubio does not resonate with the American people. Your poll is seriously flawed. This is not a horse race, Dante'.

Prediction Markets
When a campaign still has months remaining, prediction markets — in which traders bet on event outcomes — have a substantially better record than polls at pointing to the eventual nominee. But the markets do have at least one weakness: They sometimes exaggerate the chances of unusual or long-shot candidates, like Donald Trump, perhaps because a few passionate traders can affect prices.

Right, I read an article about it today and they said Rubio is not it. So you can forget about him. He doesn't have a chance. The establishment is desperately trying to sell the idea but the people are not buying.

 

[S.J.]

Meaningless analogy, especially the one that has Rubio winning. Whose predictions, the ones who keep predicting Trump will collapse at any minute?

 

[saveliberty]

The possibility that a president can lose the election, and win the popular vote...has only been something Republicans love since Bush beat Gore that way.

Before that...Republicans didn't know the difference between a constitutional republic and a democracy.

Good job spin doctor. I never said that. The reference was to winning by a large margin. Popular vote is usually fairly close percentagewise. Electorial votes, being an all or nothing proposition in most states, lends itself to large margins.

Further, liberals frequently confuse the terms constitutional republic and democracy far more often.